Americans don't mind that their form of government or their official buildings follow a general Greek pattern, especially ancient Greece. But they sure don't want their economy to imitate modern Greece.
Recently, some observers have warned that the Greek fiscal crisis is an omen for the U.S. Even more, they've noted what they've said are similarities between Greece's oppressive national debts and the U.S. fiscal situation.
USA Today, for instance, had a recent editorial that made some comparisons. An excerpt:
Before Americans get too smug, however, they should note the obvious: Debt is debt. If too much Greek borrowing can send world financial markets into turmoil like that of the past couple of days, imagine the damage a U.S. debt crisis would inflict...
Washington's public debt is nearly $8.5 trillion, which comes to about 58% of the U.S. economy, compared with ratios exceeding 100% in places like Greece. But the U.S. debt is rising fast, and its true size is masked by the surplus run by the Social Security trust fund. Factoring that in, the total national debt is about $13 trillion, or 90% of the economy. Including unfunded liabilities for such programs as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the federal government is looking at a long-term shortfall of about $62 trillion, or about $200,000 for every American, according to thePeter G. Peterson Foundation, a group devoted to promoting awareness about public borrowing.
These numbers should come as a shock. But in Washington, there appear to be two acceptable responses — denial and finger-pointing...
... Unless this type of petty behavior ends soon, and there are few indications that it will, the economic tragedy in Athens will simply be an out-of-town tryout for the show headed for Washington.
That's a comparison that makes a lot of Americans nervous, given the way the Greek government had to go hat in hand for a bailout from the IMF and Eurozone nations and the violent protests that have occurred in Athens.
But experts no less than Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and David Walker, president of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and former head of the Government Accountability Office, agree that Americans don't have to worry too much about the Greek example, at least not immediately.
The U.S. economy has been growing since last summer, thanks to fiscal stimulus and expansionary policies by the Federal Reserve. I wish that growth were faster; still, it's finally producing job gains — and it's also showing up in revenues. Right now we're on track to match Congressional Budget Office projections of a substantial rise in tax receipts. Put those projections together with the Obama administration's policies, and they imply a sharp fall in the budget deficit over the next few years.
Greece, on the other hand, is caught in a trap. During the good years, when capital was flooding in, Greek costs and prices got far out of line with the rest of Europe. If Greece still had its own currency, it could restore competitiveness through devaluation. But since it doesn't, and since leaving the euro is still considered unthinkable, Greece faces years of grinding deflation and low or zero economic growth. So the only way to reduce deficits is through savage budget cuts, and investors are skeptical about whether those cuts will actually happen.
It's worth noting, by the way, that Britain — which is in worse fiscal shape than we are, but which, unlike Greece, hasn't adopted the euro — remains able to borrow at fairly low interest rates. Having your own currency, it seems, makes a big difference.
In short, we're not Greece. We may currently be running deficits of comparable size, but our economic position — and, as a result, our fiscal outlook — is vastly better.
Unlike Krugman, Walker is a deficit hawk. So he's a lot less sanguine about the U.S. fiscal situation.
But he, too, says the U.S. isn't close to Greece economically. Though he seems more open to the possibility of the U.S. sliding towards Greece than Krugman does.
An excerpt:
So, are we Greece? Not yet. But if we don't change course and recognize that we are not exempt from the fundamental laws of prudent finance, we could be in the not too distant future.
There's another question worth considering: Are we still America? Our nation and too many of our citizens have become addicted to consumption and debt. But we can change our ways. Every previous generation has taken steps to keep America strong and improve the standard of living for future generations. Thanks to our forbearers, we are the richest and most powerful nation on earth. Then again, back in the day, so was Greece.
Again, we're not Greece... yet.
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