Sun Still Shining on Arizona's Favorite Son
“The Jeremiah Wright storm allows McCain to take the high road by saying he wants to run a respectful campaign and by scolding North Carolina Republicans for an ad that ties Obama to Wright. And while McCain gets days of positive coverage for taking that stand, he keeps the divisive Wright issue front and center. ”
It is good to be John McCain these days. Fortune beams upon him the way it sometimes did on heroes of Greek myth.
Many in the Republican Party are still rubbing their eyes in disbelief that the erstwhile maverick from Arizona is their presumptive nominee. How did it happen when several of his rivals had more assets and more affinity with the core GOP voter?
It happened in part because his rivals got in each other's way more than they got in McCain's. By winning rather modest numbers of votes and fractional percentages of the total, McCain won big states with mere pluralities and let the GOP's rules spin them into "winner take all" gold.
And if that all seems a remarkable stroke of winter luck, consider that it is happening again in the spring.
Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have both attracted far more votes in the primary than McCain and raised vastly more money. Yet they are using all that money and momentum against each other. McCain seems increasingly likely to be the beneficiary, not just now but in the fall against whichever Democrat survives.
Take the latest round of the controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, a retired pastor without a church who insists on equating himself with the entire institution of religion in black America. The fallout is deadly for Obama, who has a 20-year association with Wright. But it's potentially toxic for Hillary Clinton as well; because the former first lady was already in danger of alienating African American voters with the tactics she and her husband used to stay alive in January and February.
But for McCain, the Wright storm presents a rare opportunity for having it both ways. He takes the high road by saying he wants to run a respectful campaign and by scolding North Carolina Republicans for an ad that ties Obama to Wright. At the same time, he gets days of positive coverage for taking that stand, and he keeps the divisive Wright issue front and center.
McCain can say he respects Wright's six years as a Marine -- getting on all the cable TV shows -- then get another cycle's worth of payoff when Wright compares the Marines to the legions of the tyrannical Roman empire.
It's almost too easy.
It is possible the Democratic vote will reunite after the nomination is eventually decided and the convention is held. But it seems equally possible the battle will continue through the convention and the rift will last much longer.
McCain need only stay alive, an interested observer from across the divide, watching the Democrats squander an extraordinary opportunity to take the White House from the Republicans. Polls suggest sizable numbers of Reagan Democrats will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee, and many black voters and new voters will stay home if Obama is not the nominee.
The question is whether the split over personalities among Democrats will be powerful enough to outweigh all the other signs pointing to a broad, national repudiation of President Bush. Polls show majorities of Americans deeply disenchanted with the current administration and its policies, most particularly on Iraq, immigration and the economy. McCain is associated with all three, and lately has gone out of his way to reinforce his bond with Bushism.
That is why, with all the mayhem of the campaign to date, both Democratic presidential candidates remain statistically tied with McCain in hypothetical match-ups for November.
But if we have learned anything in our politics since World War II, it is that Americans choose an individual to be president, not a party or a platform.
And right now, the individual basking in the favor of the sun is John McCain.
8:39 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink
