No Easy Picks for Either Party's VP
“In the end, both McCain and Obama will probably tap someone highly imperfect who just feels right to the nominee -- someone plausible and compatible who "brings something to the ticket." What that something is will be of lesser consequence.”
Everybody loves playing "Pick the VP" except the people who actually have to pick one. Doing it in real life often turns out to be painful and thankless.
Pick a good running mate and no one remembers the process. Pick a bad one, and no one ever forgets. The search for a vice president always begins as a careful parsing of potential pluses, but it often becomes a rather frantic scramble to minimize the minuses.
Consider the plight of the two presumptive nominees of 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama, whose selection of dance partners now dominates the blogosphere and every political conversation.
Neither man is likely to find his ideal running mate, because ideal candidates do not exist. It may be fun to imagine, for example, a "John and Mary" ticket (or better yet a "John y Maria" ticket). But try finding a Republican woman who has been elected statewide in a sizable state and who endorses the GOP platform stand against abortion.
Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison and Elizabeth Dole probably come the closest among current officeholders, although neither quite fills the bill. Hutchison has been slightly heterodox on abortion and has her political sights fixed on Texas. Dole has her hands full with her re-election campaign this fall and would not help McCain on the age front, being one month older.
That's why the name of Sarah Palin comes up. She's the 44-year-old Republican who is the first woman governor of Alaska and that state's youngest governor. Bright and mediagenic and strongly anti-abortion, she's considered a rising star who could find a place on the national stage. But her only previous office was as mayor of Wasilla. And is anyone really worried about the GOP carrying Alaska?
The lack of obvious women to pair with McCain in the political world has prompted the mention of some private sector stars such as Carly Fiorina, 54, the former CEO and chairman at Hewlett-Packard, and Meg Whitman, 51, former CEO of eBay.
Fiorina and Whitman have no political experience other than campaigning for McCain (Fiorina) and Mitt Romney (Whitman) this year. But both exude the air of business acumen often lacking when McCain talks economics himself. Both women are well-known to readers of The Wall Street Journal, but entering the national consciousness in an entirely new way would bring entirely uncertain results.
No woman was included when McCain hosted three potential veeps at his Arizona home last weekend. Romney was included, as was Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (a key backer in a key primary) and the 36-year-old freshly elected governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal. A fourth prospect, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, begged off, citing a scheduling conflict (causing some to conclude the governor was happy with his current job).
But this guest list was not really McCain's short list. Each man was invited as a salute to his own achievements but also as a nod to the constituency each represents. And in the end, none may bring enough on the plus side to make up for the potential downside.
A big part of the VP problem is that prospects who fit one set of criteria perfectly are utterly unacceptable on another. Someone who looks ideal on paper turns out to be poison once picked.
The risks are especially high this year, when both nominees must confront division within their own party ranks. If McCain picks former rival Mike Huckabee as a bridge to social conservatives, does he turn off more moderate Republicans and independents? If he chooses Romney to please economic conservatives, or Crist to win Florida, do evangelicals feel snubbed?
And if he goes for Joe Lieberman, the independent Democrat from Connecticut, does he build consensus or alienate partisans on both sides?
Obama is still wrapping up his nomination, so his VP process is not so far along. But it is no less complicated. He must first decide whether to choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. If he decides not to, as most now expect, he deepens the disaffection of much of his party. That puts even greater pressure on him to choose another woman, or at least a man who has been an outspoken Clinton backer.
It is clear that other women in the political realm -- Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sibelius, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill -- would bring back many diehard Clinton loyalists in November. But would any of them bring back enough to matter? And which of them could match Clinton's recent appeal to blue-collar white voters, especially in exurban areas?
Obama will have to weigh the appeal of these women against his need for greater credibility on foreign policy and national defense. That gap argues for a higher military profile, such as that of a former general (Wesley Clark) or a war hero senator such as Jim Webb of Virginia.
Others will say nothing does a ticket as much good as a successful centrist governor from a big state, such as Ohio's Ted Strickland or Pennsylvania's Ed Rendell, both prominent Clinton champions, or Mark Warner, a former governor of Virginia now running for the Senate. But each of these men may have limited effect on voters outside their home states.
In the end, both McCain and Obama will probably tap someone highly imperfect who just feels right to the nominee -- someone plausible and compatible who "brings something to the ticket." What that something is will be of lesser consequence.
9:06 AM ET | 05-28-2008 | permalink
