What Keeps Hillary Going?
“Is America ready for a troika consisting of Obama, Clinton and Clinton? Make no mistake, taking on one Clinton will mean all the benefits and baggage of both. Perhaps you can picture the threesome at the convention, or in the fall campaign. But in the White House? Still, if this proves the price of peace in the party, or the one way to hold the full Democratic coalition together, it cannot be dismissed out of hand. The real question is: Do Hillary Clinton's voters who say they can't vote for Obama change their minds if she's part of the package? ”
By now, no one needs more rehashing of the numbers, but here's the short version: Barack Obama has a virtual lock on the delegates he needs to be the 2008 Democratic nominee for president.
Obama needs only about a third of the delegates at stake in the remaining primaries and about the same share of the uncommitted superdelegates. Barring another outbreak of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama should do substantially better than that in both categories.
So game over. Even the seating of the full delegations from the outlaw primaries in Florida and Michigan is no longer a real threat to Obama's nomination.
So why is Hillary Clinton still barnstorming the country from West Virginia to Oregon (with stopovers in Kentucky and South Dakota) in a vain effort to stop him?
Let's consider a few possible answers.
She doesn't get it. She is drinking the Kool-Aid her aides are serving up on their daily conference call. She thinks the West Virginia primary (with a microscopic 28 delegates) is "critical." She thinks the real number for nomination is 2,209 rather than 2,025 (as the rest of the world thinks), because she really expects Florida and Michigan to be seated without penalty. She thinks she can sell all this to two-thirds of the remaining superdelegates, or else pry loose a lot of pledged delegates who are only part of the process because they are Obama true believers.
(This explanation is not persuasive because we all know Clinton to be a savvy politician with a head for hard numbers. In fact, you could argue, her problem is seeming too savvy and too political. So we must look further for an explanation.)
She thinks Obama will stumble. This represents a far more plausible insight. Perhaps she firmly believes her rival will, in a day or a week or a month, crash into a wall. It may be another round of Wright — worse yet than the first two — or it may be a torpedo of another nature. But somehow she is convinced he will blow up before the convention in Denver in August and she should stand at the ready until then.
(No one can dismiss the prospect of a disaster waiting in the wings for Obama. He remains a little-known rookie making his first bid for national stardom. He has been scrubbed and vetted up to now, but not to the degree he will be as the presumptive nominee. The rough stuff is just beginning, and the Clintons know this better than anyone.)
She wants the second spot on the ticket. While no one in her inner circle may admit to this right now, she has to be considering the upside and downside of being on the 2008 ticket in the No. 2 spot. She has already softened her language regarding her opponent, indicating an interest in moving beyond their rivalry. But she may think she has more leverage on Obama and his decision if she remains a rival for now.
(Is America ready for a troika consisting of Obama, Clinton and Clinton? Make no mistake, taking on one Clinton will mean all the benefits and baggage of both. Perhaps you can picture the threesome at the convention, or in the fall campaign. But in the White House? Still, if this proves the price of peace in the party, or the one way to hold the full Democratic coalition together, it cannot be dismissed out of hand. The real question is: Do Hillary Clinton's voters who say they can't vote for Obama change their minds if she's part of the package?)
She can't stop. Necessity dictates the long campaign because the Clinton campaign is now well into debt. She and her husband have lent at least $11 million from their own resources, and that number will almost surely go much higher. To get that back, the campaign must raise a great deal of money in the weeks ahead. Raising money is nearly impossible under a white flag.
She just doesn't want to stop. This campaign is clearly the culmination of Hillary Clinton's passion and her dream. Not many months ago, she seemed assured of being the first woman nominated. She seemed quite likely to be the first woman president. Now she finds herself beaten, besieged, beleaguered and substantially poorer. To quit now would be to lock in those losses. She keeps on going because to do anything else is to accept a defeat she cannot bring herself to accept.
She wants to stop, but just a little later. You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. Judging by the body language and facial expressions the family displayed on stage in Indianapolis on Tuesday, they know their cards won't beat what's on the table. But by waiting for a better night or a better day to quit — after Kentucky and Oregon vote on May 20, or after the last primaries on June 3 — the Clinton team can plot a better trajectory for her future.
(Right now, Hillary Clinton might look forward to running again in 2012 or even 2016. She might also take a look at the New York governorship in 2010. And the talk about her becoming Senate majority leader also persists. Her prospects are still bright. She just needs a little time to stage manage her exit.)
She has reasons known only to her. This is the most intriguing prospect of all. Stay tuned.
12:33 PM ET | 05- 9-2008 | permalink
