Bush Enjoying a Good Month for a Change
“It can be said that each and every piece of good news ... was made possible by the impending departure of this president. It can also be argued that each of these successes will continue policies that are unpopular with the wider public, thereby increasing the danger of electoral consequences for Republican incumbents in November.”
One thing journalists are supposed to spot is a trend. Even better is to spot a counter-trend. Best of all is to spot a countertrend that defies conventional wisdom.
So let's talk about what's been happening for President Bush. So far in June, he's had a pretty good month. And if that doesn't qualify as a counter-trend defying conventional wisdom, what does?
The president has just won major victories in Congress on two of the most stubborn issues afflicting his relations with the majority Democrats. Congress is going to relent and go along with $165 billion to finance the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through the remainder of the Bush presidency.
In other words: mission accomplished. The president can now look forward to turning over the war on terrorism to his successor with flags flying and the funding spigots still wide open.
War Funding
The failure of antiwar legislators to stanch the flow of war support is hardly new. It's been an ongoing scenario since the Iraq invasion loomed as a prospect six years ago. But by this late date, after 18 months of the first Congress dominated by Democrats in a dozen years, many had expected at least some shift.
Instead, by plowing straight ahead and keeping nearly all Republicans in line, the Bush administration has kept a share of power in the Senate. That, in turn, has helped House Republicans hang together, pull votes from the center-right Democrats and frustrate the antiwar majority within Speaker Nancy Pelosi's caucus.
The president has been aided in all this regard lately by favorable reports from Iraq itself. Security improvements there have been widely noted and generally attributed to the success of the surge, the U.S. troop buildup and the shift in tactics over the past 18 months.
While everyone this side of al-Qaida seems to welcome the change, there are disagreements about what it should mean for the next phase. The Bush administration and congressional allies see a green light to continue the commitment in Iraq. Others see the relative calm as a great opportunity for the U.S. to start withdrawing from a conflict clear majorities of Americans still consider a mistake (even as they support the surge and applaud its results).
Unpopular as this war has been, Americans still prefer good news over bad. And even if they are fed up with the rationale, they would prefer to see their troops come home bearing a banner of success rather than under a cloud of failure. So good news from Iraq, however fleeting or illusory it may yet prove to be, is good news.
The Congress kept voting for funding when the situation was at its worst. It was not about to cut off the funding at a moment of improvement. Beyond that, the members have tired of this feckless struggle and are ready to kick the larger, tougher decisions to the next Congress and the next administration.
Domestic Surveillance
In the same mood of exhaustion, House and Senate Democrats are ready to give in once again on domestic surveillance. Despite the insult and injury caused by years of warrantless spying on Americans at home and abroad, the Democratic majorities still perceive any real resistance to anti-terrorist measures as politically risky.
So the steadfast insistence of the White House, backed by a near-solid phalanx of Republicans on the Hill, once again finds enough sympathy on the fringes of the Democratic majority to prevail. In this case, this coalition secures administration-friendly changes to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a 1970s law that tries to bring American concepts of justice to bear on the gathering of information on anti-American spies, at home and abroad.
Congress had hoped to curb the administration's eager use of warrantless search and spying. Many in Congress had also insisted that phone companies cooperating in the taps over the past several years be answerable for their actions in court, but the administration and its allies resisted. In the end, the companies were denied blanket immunity but given something nearly as good. A judge will review their actions, determine whether they were taken at the behest of the White House, and rule accordingly. A smiling president said he could sign such a bill, and that tells you who won on that deal.
Farewell, Europe
The president also has to score his latest (and probably last) trip to Europe as a kind of success. Granted, there were awkward moments here and there. The treatment the president received was more formal than fond, and the sense of relief at his impending departure was a bit too palpable.
But on both the substance and the atmospherics, you would have to say the president came out ahead. Unlike other visits to the Continent, this one prompted little protest -- either from European power figures or from the people in the street. Instead, the president was greeted with an air of respectful appreciation. This was true in Eastern Europe (where fear of Russia is always paramount) but also in "Old Europe" -- especially in Germany, Italy and France -- where anxiety about the Russians is also on the rise. These days, it's not the Red Army causing palpitations so much as the issue of access to natural gas.
Great Britain has been something of a haven for President Bush in past years, thanks to his close working relationship with former Prime Minister Tony Blair (whom he met privately on this trip as well). Blair's successor, Gordon Brown, though less enthusiastic in his embrace, also gave the president nearly all he had publicly requested. That included a small boost in British forces in Afghanistan and a further delay in the removal of their remaining combat troops in Iraq.
Defending Core Policies
It can be said that each and every piece of good news recorded by the White House so far this month was made possible by the impending departure of this president.
It can also be argued that each of these successes will continue policies that are unpopular with the wider public, thereby increasing the danger of electoral consequences for Republican incumbents in November. Despite the news of the month, the president's approval ratings have yet to show much upward mobility.
But for the moment at least, the Bush White House is reaping some short-term dividends on its determination to end its tenure defending core policies on principle. Yes, there is a bunker mentality here -- a conscious will to be obstinate. In the long run, it may seem the height of folly.
But for the moment, it has proven a good way to hold a weak Democratic majority at bay in both House and Senate, and to give the media -- and perhaps the electorate -- something to chew on in the waning months of this presidency.
10:39 AM ET | 06-23-2008 | permalink
