Dream Ticket? Less Likely by the Day
“A new Rasmussen poll shows Hillary Clinton the favorite of 44 percent among Democrats, but this is down from 51 percent earlier in the month. Among independents, the Clinton magnetism weakens decisively: Rasmussen finds her the first choice of only 24 percent among unaffiliated voters. So the demand for the "dream ticket" appears to have peaked and begun its decline.”
If politics had supermarket tabloids, today's headlines would say:
TOP FUNDERS FOR HILLARY AND OBAMA IN TRYST AT MAYFLOWER HOTEL
HILLARY BACK ON RED CARPET, SEEKS OSCAR FOR SUPPORTING ROLE
These wonderments are, in fact, coming to pass. And it's just been three weeks since Clinton's withdrawal on June 7. Former President Bill Clinton has yet to commit to Obama in the flesh, but he has released a brief, written statement of support. Scholars are still trying to determine when Bill Clinton last had only 27 words to say on a subject.
All this unity may be good news for Obama and the Democratic Party, but it's bad news for those who still desperately want an Obama-Clinton ticket.
The running mate offer is increasingly likely to go to someone else, so the Clintons' next chance at having offices at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. will not come until 2012 or later.
This is the cue for protests from Clinton backers who think she absolutely must be on the ticket. It will also raise eyebrows among those who think Clinton represents Obama's best chance of winning what will turn out to be a tense, tight race.
Polls do show Hillary Clinton by far the first choice for second banana among Democrats, but that is mostly because the rest of the vote is divided among so many other prospects. A new Rasmussen poll shows her the favorite of 44 percent among Democrats, but this is down from 51 percent earlier in the month. Among independents, the Clinton magnetism weakens decisively: Rasmussen finds her the first choice of only 24 percent among unaffiliated voters. So the demand for the "dream ticket" appears to have peaked and begun its decline.
Right after Obama clinched the nomination on June 3, Clinton withheld her concession and endorsement. For her fans and many observers, this was a sign she wanted to be on the ticket and was willing to play hardball to get there. Even when she publicly withdrew and endorsed, there was a sense she might withhold her full support in hopes of forcing a merger.
Now all that seems to be in the past. This week's meeting of major fundraisers at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington signifies at least a financial merger is already in the works. Obama has asked his top-dollar donors to pitch in on retiring the Clinton campaign debt. Next up: the two onstage together at a unity event in Unity, N.H. -- a ribbon-cutting ceremony for a building project that's well under way.
Would all this be happening if the Clintons still thought they could hold out for the No. 2 spot?
If Obama were considering Clinton for veep, would he have a team of vetters that includes no known advocate for her cause? And would he name Patti Solis Doyle to be the top staff liaison to his running mate, given that Doyle was fired as campaign manager by Clinton earlier this year? Doyle would hardly represent a "Welcome Hillary" sign at Obama headquarters, and her very presence on the Obama team is considered an irritant by some Clintonians.
The signals are equally clear from the Clinton side: She will campaign for Obama even without a place on the ticket. Bill Clinton will do what he is asked. Longtime Clinton surrogates such as Terry McAuliffe and James Carville are telling Clinton financial kingpins to open up to Obama and telling foot soldiers to get ready to march.
And while some Clinton die-hards will never accept the past six months, most seem to be gravitating toward their party's nominee -- without waiting to see who the running mate may be.
It has always been evident that an Obama-Clinton pairing would be awkward, if not counterproductive. But stranger things have happened, as in the often cited case of Kennedy-Johnson in 1960.
Not long ago, Obama was trailing McCain in Florida and Ohio, two states he lost to Clinton and where she outpolls McCain. Obama also looked soft in Pennsylvania and was actually behind in must-win Michigan. Under such circumstances, he might decide he needed the dream ticket dynamic. The need to win would outweigh worries about sharing the White House with two Clintons.
But since then, Obama's polling outlook has brightened (a delayed bump from becoming the presumptive nominee). Two national polls (Newsweek and The Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg) have given him leads of 15 points over McCain.
In key states, the well-regarded Quinnipiac Poll now shows him further ahead in Pennsylvania and opening small leads in Ohio and even Florida. Quinnipiac also has Obama ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Colorado -- four swing states where his margin among independents is greater than his margin overall.
To date, McCain's camp has little to show for its outreach to women in the wake of Clinton's defeat. Polls show some women who favored Clinton are holding back. Yet Obama still benefits from a wider gender gap over McCain than John Kerry or Al Gore had over George W. Bush.
Under these circumstances, the Obama team is going to believe it can win in November without taking the Clintons on board. It is now up to the Clintons to decide how they play their new role as cheerleaders on the sideline. If they are convincing enough, they can keep all their options open past this fall, come what may.
7:42 AM ET | 06-27-2008 | permalink
