Answering the Top 10 Political Questions of 2009

A friend of mine says he loves baseball because every time you go to the park you see something you've never seen before. That's the great thing about politics, too. Every year brings a new set of question marks and a fresh struggle to answer them.

Let's take the year that just passed. We knew it would be interesting because the momentous events of 2008 demanded a sequel. Everyone who watched the drama of the latest presidential and congressional cycles was entitled to expect a year in governing that was every bit as significant.

So what did we get? We got pushback from the right against the agenda of President Obama, much as we did against those of newly elected Democratic presidents in 1993, 1977 and 1961. Right along with it came equally predictable disappointment and disaffection from the left.

As for actual historic achievement, the jury is still out. Let's see what happens with health care, the climate bill and financial re-regulation first. Above all, the new Afghanistan policy needs to play out for at least a few months before we assess the new regime's biggest risk to date.

At the same time, actual events in 2009 did resolve some of the political questions that beguiled us just one year ago. Let's take them in Letterman order.

Question No. 10: What will Rudy Giuliani do in 2009 to re-establish relevance and rekindle his presidential fire? The answer: Nothing. As the year came to a close, he announced he would not run for governor or senator in 2010, even though polls show him a strong contender for either. So the man whose September 2001 performance as mayor of New York made him a national hero will remain the man whose hapless bid for president six years later made him a national joke.

Question No. 9: How long will it take for Republicans to find something to cheer about? Answer: Exactly one year, from Election Day 2008 until the corresponding Tuesday in November 2009. That's when Republicans recaptured the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, two states Obama had carried a year earlier. Although different in many ways, New Jersey's Chris Christie and Virginia's Bob McDonnell both ran successfully against the recession, taxes, government in general and the change agenda that had been a key Obama asset.

Question No. 8: What next for the Kennedy clan? Answer: Retreat. The year began with the family's last lion, Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, battling a brain tumor. For a time, it appeared his niece Caroline, daughter of JFK, might be appointed to the U.S. Senate in place of Hillary Clinton. He urged her to seize the opportunity. But the New York media swarmed around the famous heiress and she wilted. When Teddy succumbed in August, there was talk his widow, Vickie, might take his Senate seat, at least temporarily. She demurred. At the funeral, the best speeches were given by young Kennedys who have never run for office and show no interest in doing so. The senator's seat went temporarily to Paul Kirk, a former staffer and Democratic National Committee chairman. In January it will be claimed in a special election by state Attorney General Martha Coakley, who has no close ties to the family.

Question No. 7: Will Sarah Palin go back to Alaska and tackle its thorny problems as governor or pursue a career as a national media figure? Answer: All too obvious. Palin resigned as governor in midsummer and mounted a national tour as co-author of a tell-and-tease autobiography trashing the campaign staff of her ticketmate John McCain. We expect to see a lot of her on TV and in the blogosphere in months to come. And she will campaign for other Republicans around the country in 2010. But don't bank on her being in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2011. She will flirt with another national campaign, but the downside of a poor showing would be too steep. She will opt for the spotlight but not the hot seat.

Question No. 6: So who will emerge as an early favorite for the GOP in 2012? Answer: No one so far. Mitt Romney, the venture capitalist and former governor of Massachusetts who ran a pretty good campaign in 2008, remains the class of the field but kept a low profile in 2009. Mike Huckabee led in some polls of Republicans that also found Sarah Palin popular. But Huckabee ended the year uncertain about running (and damaged by a clemency scandal from his days as Arkansas governor). Romney remains too much a general election candidate, a problem for the Democrats to be sure but far from the average Republican activist's cup of tea. His past positions on social issues were too styled to Massachusetts, and his Mormonism still leaves the party's religious base lukewarm at best.

Question No. 5: Whither John McCain? Will he wrap up his career in public service by retiring after four Senate terms and offer a bridge between the parties in the interim? Or will he go to the barricades? Answer: All in for Option 2. Some thought McCain would reprise the spirit of his concession speech on Election Night 2008, urging America to embrace its new president and its emerging multicultural future. McCain has been shoring up his right, hewing to the party line and all but denouncing his own history as a maverick.

Question No. 4: Who will be the first member of the Cabinet to crash and burn? Answer: None so far. As of this writing, all Cabinet and Cab-level appointees are operative. The White House has lost its green jobs czar, Van Jones, who was pilloried for political remarks and actions years before he took the White House job. The president has also accepted the resignation of his counsel, Greg Craig, who some blamed for the backlog in judicial appointments and the difficulties in closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay.

Question No. 3: How will the outsized egos of former rivals Hillary Clinton and Joseph Biden deal with their new roles as subordinates to President Obama? Answer: Remarkably well, so far. Hillary Clinton has been getting high marks around the world as secretary of state, while her husband, the former president, has managed to stay out of the news as well. Vice President Biden, who patronized his future boss in some of the early primary states, has adapted to his subordination with humor and at least a modicum of grace.

Question No. 2: Will President Obama turn out to be a liberal or a centrist? Answer: Yes. But which of his personas predominates depends on the issue of the day. He's been a bigger spender than most expected, but he backed the Senate's less radical approach to overhauling health care insurance. And his Afghanistan buildup could have come from President McCain.

Question No. 1: How will the United States adjust to having a black president? Answer: So far, at least, it's been a lot like the way the country adjusted to other new presidents. The overriding issue is the shift in White House agenda and priorities. Some protests have had racial overtones, but these have been far from dominant. The organized right and all its institutions reject the new president pretty much out of hand, but his race is arguably beside the point even for his fiercest opponents.