Balance of Power: Ken's Predictions
U.S. House Of Representatives
The House currently has 255 Democrats and 178 Republicans. Who will have control after November? Below, the latest forecast from NPR's Ken Rudin.
- Safe D: 163
- Leans D: 53
- Safe I: 0
- Safe I: 0
- Safe R: 162
- Leans R: 57
U.S. Senate
Democrats now control the Senate 59-41. But with 37 races at stake, will the Senate still be in their hands after November? Follow Ken's predictions below.
- Safe D: 47
- Leans D: 5
- Safe I: 0
- Safe I: 0
- Safe R: 34
- Leans R: 14
Race to Watch
Nevada - U.S. Senate
Current Ratings
Lean-D NPR
Toss-up CQ - Roll Call
Toss-up Cook Political Report
Toss-up Rothenberg Political Report
Lean-R Sabato's Crystal Ball
Final Senate Prediction: Reid Over Angle
Nov 1, 2010 The Republicans are heading towards their greatest election cycle in 16 years, but unless the wave turns into a tsunami, there is little likelihood that they will get a Senate majority. They need a net pickup of 10 seats -- or nine, if they reach a 50-50 tie and then persuade Nebraska's Ben Nelson to switch parties.
Plus, as Senate Republican campaign chair John Cornyn has said from the start, it will probably take two cycles for them to take control. Of the 33 seats up in 2012, 23 (including the two independents) are Democratic. So, on paper at least, the GOP looks set for a takeover in two years. (But -- as we've learned this cycle -- two years can be a lifetime. So I wouldn't even dare to venture a prediction now.)
I'm pretty much standing by my Senate picks this year. For the record, I called every one correctly in 2008, save one: the Minnesota race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken. And that took some nine months to arrive at a winner.
I'm less confident about this year. And the prediction I'm least confident about is Nevada, where nearly everyone is picking Sharron Angle to oust Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. She is ahead, albeit marginally, in every poll I've seen. I'm picking Reid, though I'll be honest -- I'm not exactly sure why. It's not that his position in Washington has helped much back in Nevada, a state that, after all, is among the leaders in unemployment and home foreclosures. I know it's not that I feel like being contrarian. It's just a gut feeling.
But if he does go down to defeat, it will be the perfect metaphor for Campaign 2010: The anger, the disillusionment, with the Democrats after four years in control, coming back to take out the majority leader of the U.S. Senate ... something that hasn't happened since 1952. He could well be this year's Tom Foley, the House speaker whose defeat in the 1994 GOP wave was especially symbolic.
I'm just not sure it happens. Republicans pick up a net of seven seats on Tuesday. -Ken Rudin
Latest Ratings
Nov 1, 2010
OR - Governor
NPR: Lean-D (was Toss-up)
FL - Governor
NPR: Lean-D (was Toss-up)
NV - U.S. Senate
NPR: Lean-D (was Toss-up)
MS - U.S. House, 1
NPR: Lean-R (was Toss-up)
WI - U.S. House, 7
NPR: Lean-R (was Toss-up)
WA - U.S. House, 3
NPR: Lean-R (was Toss-up)
TN - U.S. House, 8
NPR: Lean-R (was Toss-up)
SC - U.S. House, 5
NPR: Lean-D (was Toss-up)
PA - U.S. House, 10
NPR: Lean-D (was Toss-up)
PA - U.S. House, 7
NPR: Lean-R (was Toss-up)
