Nevada U.S. Senate (2004)
|None of These Candidates||UNA||12,968||1.6%|
U.S. President: Nevada (2008)
|None of These Candidates||NO||6,267||0.6%|
Nov 1, 2010
Final Senate Prediction: Reid Over Angle
The Republicans are heading towards their greatest election cycle in 16 years, but unless the wave turns into a tsunami, there is little likelihood that they will get a Senate majority. They need a net pickup of 10 seats -- or nine, if they reach a 50-50 tie and then persuade Nebraska's Ben Nelson to switch parties.
Plus, as Senate Republican campaign chair John Cornyn has said from the start, it will probably take two cycles for them to take control. Of the 33 seats up in 2012, 23 (including the two independents) are Democratic. So, on paper at least, the GOP looks set for a takeover in two years. (But -- as we've learned this cycle -- two years can be a lifetime. So I wouldn't even dare to venture a prediction now.)
I'm pretty much standing by my Senate picks this year. For the record, I called every one correctly in 2008, save one: the Minnesota race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken. And that took some nine months to arrive at a winner.
I'm less confident about this year. And the prediction I'm least confident about is Nevada, where nearly everyone is picking Sharron Angle to oust Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. She is ahead, albeit marginally, in every poll I've seen. I'm picking Reid, though I'll be honest -- I'm not exactly sure why. It's not that his position in Washington has helped much back in Nevada, a state that, after all, is among the leaders in unemployment and home foreclosures. I know it's not that I feel like being contrarian. It's just a gut feeling.
But if he does go down to defeat, it will be the perfect metaphor for Campaign 2010: The anger, the disillusionment, with the Democrats after four years in control, coming back to take out the majority leader of the U.S. Senate ... something that hasn't happened since 1952. He could well be this year's Tom Foley, the House speaker whose defeat in the 1994 GOP wave was especially symbolic.
I'm just not sure it happens. Republicans pick up a net of seven seats on Tuesday. -Ken Rudin
New NPR Rating
Lean-D (was Toss-up)
Oct 31, 2010
New Sabato's Crystal Ball Rating
Lean-R (was Toss-up)
Sep 9, 2010
Reid Faces Challenge In Nevada
Harry Reid (D), first elected in 1986, is seeking a fifth term. Reid has been in trouble for the longest time here, with his opponents accusing him of employing liberal talking points when he's in Washington and sounding like a conservative when he's home. His numbers remain weak. But he got a boost when the Republican he most preferred to run against, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle, won the GOP primary in June. Still, for all the negative press Angle has gotten since then -- much of it deserved -- it is striking to note that she remains competitive with Reid. If he loses, he would be the first Senate majority leader to do so since 1952. -Ken Rudin
New NPR Rating