West Virginia - U.S. Senate

as of October 31

This is a special election to fill Robert Byrd's former seat.

The Candidates

Photo of Joe Manchin

Joe Manchin

  • Democrat
  • Birthdate: August 24, 1947
  • Residence: Charleston, WV

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Photo of John Raese

John Raese

  • Republican
  • Birthdate: April 10, 1950
  • Residence: Morgantown, WV

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Previous Results

    West Virginia U.S. Senate (2006)

    Candidate Party Votes %
    Robert Byrd DEM 296,276 64.4%
    John Raese REP 155,043 33.7%
    Jesse Johnson MOU 8,565 1.9%

    U.S. President: West Virginia (2008)

    Candidate Party Votes %
    John McCain REP 397,466 55.7%
    Barack Obama DEM 303,857 42.6%
    Ralph Nader UNA 7,219 1%
    Chuck Baldwin CON 2,465 0.3%
    Cynthia McKinney MOU 2,355 0.3%

    state Election Profile

Source: Associated Press

Recent Analysis

Oct 31, 2010

New Sabato's Crystal Ball Rating

Lean-D (was Toss-up)

    Oct 29, 2010

    New NPR Rating

    Lean-D (was Toss-up)

      Oct 21, 2010

      Democrats In Danger Of Losing Seat

      There are too many polls out there showing that Democratic control of this seat, which has been absolute since 1959, is in serious jeopardy for me to continually rate this as "leans Democratic." The problem for the Dems is less about Joe Manchin than it is about President Obama, who is deeply unpopular here -- and, for the record, was not especially popular in 2008, when he lost the state 56 percent to 43 percent.

      Republicans are effectively saying that Manchin would be a rubber stamp for the president if he came to Washington. I still think that if the GOP had a new face here -- unlike John Raese, who has run twice for the Senate before -- they would be well ahead. Regardless, every poll I've seen has Raese with some sort of lead. And so, at the minimum, this moves to "toss-up." -Ken Rudin

      New NPR Rating

      Toss-up (was Lean-D)

        Oct 20, 2010

        New Sabato's Crystal Ball Rating

        Toss-up (was Lean-D)

          Oct 5, 2010

          New CQ - Roll Call Rating

          Toss-up (was Lean-D)

            Manchin Favored, But Race Is Tight

            The death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D), the longest-serving senator in history, added this race to the calendar. Gov. Joe Manchin (D) appointed a former aide, Carte Goodwin, to temporarily fill the seat until the special election, in which Manchin is running and favored to win. The Republican candidate is John Raese, a millionaire businessman who narrowly lost a Senate race to Jay Rockefeller in 1984 and got clobbered by Byrd in 2006. No Republican has won a Senate race here since 1956, and the GOP is up against a very popular governor. The party's best hope is that this becomes a referendum on President Obama. UPDATE On Oct. 5: Recent polls show Raese ahead by a couple points -- but there's still a month to go.
            -Ken Rudin

            New NPR Rating

            Lean-D (was Lean-D)

            Sep 30, 2010

            New Cook Political Report Rating

            Toss-up (was Lean-D)

              Sep 28, 2010

              New Rothenberg Political Report Rating

              Toss-up (was Lean-D)

                Sep 8, 2010

                Manchin Favored To Win Byrd's Seat

                The death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D), the longest-serving senator in history, added this race to the calendar. Gov. Joe Manchin (D) appointed a former aide, Carte Goodwin, to temporarily fill the seat until the special election, in which Manchin is running and favored to win. The Republican candidate is John Raese, a millionaire businessman who narrowly lost a Senate race to Jay Rockefeller in 1984 and got clobbered by Byrd in 2006. No Republican has won a Senate race here since 1956, and the GOP is up against a very popular governor. The party's only hope is that this becomes a referendum on President Obama.
                -Ken Rudin

                New NPR Rating

                Lean-D

                   

                  About The Scorecard

                  Photo of Ken RudinExplore how NPR's Ken Rudin and other influential political watchers are calling key House, Senate and governor races.

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