UPDATED Nov. 6, 2006 With one day to go to Election Day, NPR's Political Editor Ken Rudin offers his final calls for the 56 most competitive House races across the country. These are the seats that will likely swing control of the House -- and in Rudin's forecast, control will shift to the Democrats.
All 435 House seats are up re-election on Nov. 7. Rudin sees Republicans retaining 210 seats and Democrats winning 23 new seats to capture the House with a 225-seat majority. Here, a list of the key races, along with Rudin's forecast of who looks likely to win in each (incumbents shown in bold).
| House Races Up for Grabs in 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Rudin's Call | ||||
| Race | Rep | Dem | Tossup | Turnover |
| ARIZONA | ||||
| 1st District: Rick Renzi (R) vs. Ellen Simon (D) | R | |||
| 5th District: J.D. Hayworth (R) vs. Harry Mitchell (D) | R | |||
| 8th District: Randy Graf (R) vs. Gabrielle Giffords (D) (Jim Kolbe (R) retiring) | D | Turnover | ||
| CALIFORNIA | ||||
| 4th District: John Doolittle (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D) | R | |||
| 11th District: Richard Pombo (R) vs. Jerry McNerney (D) | R | |||
| COLORADO | ||||
| 7th District: Rick O’Donnell (R) vs. Ed Perlmutter (D)(Bob Beauprez (R) running for governor) | D | Turnover | ||
| CONNECTICUT | ||||
| 2nd District: Rob Simmons (R) vs. Joe Courtney (D) | R | |||
| 4th District: Chris Shays (R) vs. Diane Farrell (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 5th District: Nancy Johnson (R) vs. Chris Murphy (D) | R | |||
| FLORIDA | ||||
| 13th District: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D)(Katherine Harris (R) running for Senate) | D | Turnover | ||
| 16th District: Joe Negron (R) vs. Tim Mahoney (D)(Mark Foley (R) resigned, though his name remains on the ballot; votes cast for Foley will go to Negron) | R | |||
| 22nd District: Clay Shaw (R) vs. Ron Klein (D) | R | |||
| GEORGIA | ||||
| 8th District: Jim Marshall (D) vs. Mac Collins (R) | D | |||
| 12th District: John Barrow (D) vs. Max Burns (R) | D | |||
| IDAHO | ||||
| 1st District: Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D) (Butch Otter (R) running for governor) | R | |||
| ILLINOIS | ||||
| 6th District: Peter Roskam (R) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D)(Henry Hyde (R) retiring) | D | Turnover | ||
| 8th District: Melissa Bean (D) vs. David McSweeney (R) | D | |||
| INDIANA | ||||
| 2nd District: Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 8th District: John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 9th District: Mike Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| IOWA | ||||
| 1st District: Mike Whalen (R) vs. Bruce Braley (D)(Jim Nussle (R) running for governor) | D | Turnover | ||
| 3rd District: Leonard Boswell (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R) | D | |||
| KENTUCKY | ||||
| 3rd District: Anne Northup (R) vs. John Yarmuth (D) | R | |||
| 4th District: Geoff Davis (R) vs. Ken Lucas (D) | R | |||
| MINNESOTA | ||||
| 1st District: Gil Gutknecht (R) vs. Tim Walz (D) | R | |||
| 6th District: Michele Bachmann (R) vs. Patty Wetterling (D)(Mark Kennedy (R) running for Senate) | D | Turnover | ||
| NEBRASKA | ||||
| 3rd District: Adrian Smith (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D) (Tom Osborne (R) defeated in gubernatorial primary) | R | |||
| NEVADA | ||||
| 2nd District: Dean Heller (R) vs. Jill Derby (D)(Jim Gibbons (R) running for governor) | R | |||
| 3rd District: Jon Porter (R) vs. Tessa Hafen (D) | R | |||
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | ||||
| 2nd District: Charlie Bass (R) vs. Paul Hodes (D) | R | |||
| NEW JERSEY | ||||
| 7th District: Mike Ferguson (R) vs. Linda Stender (D) | R | |||
| NEW MEXICO | ||||
| 1st District: Heather Wilson (R) vs. Patricia Madrid (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| NEW YORK | ||||
| 19th District: Sue Kelly (R) vs. John Hall (D) | R | |||
| 20th District: John Sweeney (R) vs. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 24th District: Ray Meier (R) vs. Michael Arcuri (D)(Sherwood Boehlert(R) retiring) | D | Turnover | ||
| 26th District: Tom Reynolds (R) vs. Jack Davis (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 29th District: Randy Kuhl (R) vs. Eric Massa (D) | R | |||
| NORTH CAROLINA | ||||
| 11th District: Charles Taylor (R) vs. Heath Shuler (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| OHIO | ||||
| 1st District: Steve Chabot (R) vs. John Cranley (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 2nd District: Jean Schmidt (R) vs. Victoria Wulsin (D) | R | |||
| 15th District: Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) | R | |||
| 18th District: Joy Padgett (R) vs. Zach Space (D)(Bob Ney (R) resigned after pleading guilty to felony charges) | D | Turnover | ||
| PENNSYLVANIA | ||||
| 6th District: Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Lois Murphy (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 7th District: Curt Weldon (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| 8th District: Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D) | R | |||
| 10th District: Don Sherwood (R) vs. Chris Carney (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| SOUTH CAROLINA | ||||
| 5th District: John Spratt (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R) | D | |||
| TEXAS | ||||
| 17th District: Chet Edwards (D) vs. Van Taylor (R) | D | |||
| 22nd District: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R write-in) vs. Nick Lampson (D)(Tom DeLay (R) resigned) | D | Turnover | ||
| 23rd District: Henry Bonilla (R) vs. Ciro Rodriguez (D), others | R | |||
| VERMONT | ||||
| At Large: Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R)(Bernie Sanders (I) running for Senate) | D | *Sanders had voted with the Democrats | ||
| VIRGINIA | ||||
| 2nd District:Thelma Drake (R) vs. Philip Kellam (D) | R | |||
| WASHINGTON STATE | ||||
| 8th District: Dave Reichert (R) vs. Darcy Burner (D) | D | Turnover | ||
| WEST VIRGINIA | ||||
| 1st District: Alan Mollohan (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R) | D | |||
| WISCONSIN | ||||
| 8th District: John Gard (R) vs. Steve Kagen (D)(Mark Green(R) running for governor) | R | WYOMING | ||
| At-Large: Barbara Cubin (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D) | R | TOTALS | ||
| Ken Rudin's Forecast for Key House Races | GOP Wins: 26 | Dem Wins: 30 | Tossups: 0 | Turnovers: 23 |
