Election 2006 - Ken Rudin's Forecast

UPDATED Nov. 6, 2006 With one day to go to Election Day, NPR's Political Editor Ken Rudin offers his final calls for the 56 most competitive House races across the country. These are the seats that will likely swing control of the House -- and in Rudin's forecast, control will shift to the Democrats.

All 435 House seats are up re-election on Nov. 7. Rudin sees Republicans retaining 210 seats and Democrats winning 23 new seats to capture the House with a 225-seat majority. Here, a list of the key races, along with Rudin's forecast of who looks likely to win in each (incumbents shown in bold).

House Races Up for Grabs in 2006
  Ken Rudin's Call  
Race Rep Dem Tossup Turnover
ARIZONA
1st District: Rick Renzi (R) vs. Ellen Simon (D) R      
5th District: J.D. Hayworth (R) vs. Harry Mitchell (D) R      
8th District: Randy Graf (R) vs. Gabrielle Giffords (D) (Jim Kolbe (R) retiring)   D   Turnover
CALIFORNIA
4th District: John Doolittle (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D) R      
11th District: Richard Pombo (R) vs. Jerry McNerney (D) R      
COLORADO
7th District: Rick O’Donnell (R) vs. Ed Perlmutter (D)(Bob Beauprez (R) running for governor)   D   Turnover
CONNECTICUT
2nd District: Rob Simmons (R) vs. Joe Courtney (D) R      
4th District: Chris Shays (R) vs. Diane Farrell (D)   D   Turnover
5th District: Nancy Johnson (R) vs. Chris Murphy (D) R      
FLORIDA
13th District: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D)(Katherine Harris (R) running for Senate)   D   Turnover
16th District: Joe Negron (R) vs. Tim Mahoney (D)(Mark Foley (R) resigned, though his name remains on the ballot; votes cast for Foley will go to Negron) R      
22nd District: Clay Shaw (R) vs. Ron Klein (D) R      
GEORGIA
8th District: Jim Marshall (D) vs. Mac Collins (R)   D    
12th District: John Barrow (D) vs. Max Burns (R)   D    
IDAHO
1st District: Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D) (Butch Otter (R) running for governor) R      
ILLINOIS
6th District: Peter Roskam (R) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D)(Henry Hyde (R) retiring)   D   Turnover
8th District: Melissa Bean (D) vs. David McSweeney (R)   D    
INDIANA
2nd District: Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)   D   Turnover
8th District: John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)   D   Turnover
9th District: Mike Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D)   D   Turnover
IOWA
1st District: Mike Whalen (R) vs. Bruce Braley (D)(Jim Nussle (R) running for governor)   D   Turnover
3rd District: Leonard Boswell (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R)   D    
KENTUCKY
3rd District: Anne Northup (R) vs. John Yarmuth (D) R      
4th District: Geoff Davis (R) vs. Ken Lucas (D) R      
MINNESOTA
1st District: Gil Gutknecht (R) vs. Tim Walz (D) R      
6th District: Michele Bachmann (R) vs. Patty Wetterling (D)(Mark Kennedy (R) running for Senate)   D   Turnover
NEBRASKA
3rd District: Adrian Smith (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D) (Tom Osborne (R) defeated in gubernatorial primary) R      
NEVADA
2nd District: Dean Heller (R) vs. Jill Derby (D)(Jim Gibbons (R) running for governor) R      
3rd District: Jon Porter (R) vs. Tessa Hafen (D) R      
NEW HAMPSHIRE
2nd District: Charlie Bass (R) vs. Paul Hodes (D) R      
NEW JERSEY
7th District: Mike Ferguson (R) vs. Linda Stender (D) R      
NEW MEXICO
1st District: Heather Wilson (R) vs. Patricia Madrid (D)   D   Turnover
NEW YORK
19th District: Sue Kelly (R) vs. John Hall (D) R      
20th District: John Sweeney (R) vs. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)   D   Turnover
24th District: Ray Meier (R) vs. Michael Arcuri (D)(Sherwood Boehlert(R) retiring)   D   Turnover
26th District: Tom Reynolds (R) vs. Jack Davis (D)   D   Turnover
29th District: Randy Kuhl (R) vs. Eric Massa (D) R      
NORTH CAROLINA
11th District: Charles Taylor (R) vs. Heath Shuler (D)   D   Turnover
OHIO
1st District: Steve Chabot (R) vs. John Cranley (D)   D   Turnover
2nd District: Jean Schmidt (R) vs. Victoria Wulsin (D) R      
15th District: Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) R      
18th District: Joy Padgett (R) vs. Zach Space (D)(Bob Ney (R) resigned after pleading guilty to felony charges)   D   Turnover
PENNSYLVANIA
6th District: Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Lois Murphy (D)   D   Turnover
7th District: Curt Weldon (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D)   D   Turnover
8th District: Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D) R      
10th District: Don Sherwood (R) vs. Chris Carney (D)   D   Turnover
SOUTH CAROLINA
5th District: John Spratt (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R)   D    
TEXAS
17th District: Chet Edwards (D) vs. Van Taylor (R)   D    
22nd District: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R write-in) vs. Nick Lampson (D)(Tom DeLay (R) resigned)   D   Turnover
23rd District: Henry Bonilla (R) vs. Ciro Rodriguez (D), others R      
VERMONT
At Large: Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R)(Bernie Sanders (I) running for Senate)   D   *Sanders had voted with the Democrats
VIRGINIA
2nd District:Thelma Drake (R) vs. Philip Kellam (D) R      
WASHINGTON STATE
8th District: Dave Reichert (R) vs. Darcy Burner (D)   D   Turnover
WEST VIRGINIA
1st District: Alan Mollohan (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R)   D    
WISCONSIN
8th District: John Gard (R) vs. Steve Kagen (D)(Mark Green(R) running for governor) R      
WYOMING
At-Large: Barbara Cubin (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D) R      
TOTALS
Ken Rudin's Forecast for Key House Races GOP Wins: 26 Dem Wins: 30 Tossups: 0 Turnovers: 23

NPR thanks our sponsors

Become an NPR sponsor