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Polling from Both Sides Now
A Series of Surveys from a Bipartisan Pair of Pollsters
This election year, NPR presents the work of two pollsters -- Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies and Democrat Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research -- who are measuring how opinions on issues may affect voter behavior.
Voter Attitudes Abruptly Shift
 Listen to Mara Liasson's report.
 See the complete poll results (Adobe Acrobat reader needed)
See a text version of the survey (Adobe Acrobat reader needed).
Aug. 1, 2002 -- The political landscape for the midterm elections is changing dramatically. So concludes the latest political survey conducted for NPR by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Bill McInturff. The two say that what they consider to be the "leading political indicators" all have shifted -- sharply and suddenly.
A month ago, this was "a status quo election," says McInturff. In May, polling showed that 49 percent of likely voters thought the country was taking the "right direction," while 39 percent thought the country was on the "wrong track." The latest poll finds that just 36 percent think the country is taking the right direction, while the "wrong track" response drew 56 percent.
Both men say the corporate scandals, combined with bad economic news and a falling stock market, are responsible for the shift. "There has been a "real drop in optimism about the future of the economy," McInturff says.
"We've gone from a status quo election to an anti-incumbent election in a very short period of time," says Greenberg.
Still, the men agree that the shift in attitudes hasn't yet translated into a shift in planned voting behavior -- what Greenberg calls "ballot shift." The major parties are drawing about equal numbers, as they have for months, according to the poll.
But that will change, promises McInturff. He says the "right direction/wrong track" question is an early indicator, and while the effect on voting patterns isn't readily apparent, he's warning his Republican clients that they should expect things to change over the next few months.
The Politics of Scandal
Listen to Mara Liasson's report.
See the complete poll results (Adobe Acrobat reader needed)
See a text version of the survey (Adobe Acrobat reader needed).
July 8, 2002 -- Thanks to the seemingly endless parade of corporate scandals, there is a crisis of confidence on the part of voters in the leadership of American business, according to the latest poll conducted for NPR by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Bill McInturff.
But will Americans' anger at business leaders manifest itself at the polls this election year? It depends, say both men. They agree that Republicans have reason to worry over Democrats' portraying the GOP as part of the problem. Greenberg says Republicans are vulnerable to Democrats charging that the Bush administration is one of the most corporation-friendly in history. But the poll shows that Democrats employing this tactic have to step carefully -- many respondents said they feel Democrats take just as much money from big business as do Republicans.
Much will depend on how Republicans react, according to the poll. McInturff's first formulation of one question had Republicans acknowledging the problem but stressing other issues. That got just a 24 percent favorable response. He rewrote it to point out the steps Republicans had taken to correct the problem, which added 10 points to the favorable tally.
A Warning to Republicans?
Listen to Mara Liasson's report.
See the complete poll results (Adobe Acrobat reader needed)
See a text version of the survey (Adobe Acrobat reader needed).
May 20, 2002 -- Even though voters say the most important issues facing the country are terrorism and national security, when it comes to this year's congressional elections, domestic issues such as the economy, Social Security, health care and education will determine how people vote, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Republican Bill McInturff and Democrat Stan Greenberg.
Among voters responding to the poll, 33 percent cited terrorism and national security as the most important issue facing the United States. Other issues such as the economy, education and health care drawing drew only single-digit percentages.
But those opinions seem to have little impact on planned voting behavior. On another question, the respondents were asked to choose between international issues (including the war on terrorism) and domestic issues as to which is more important in terms of the congressional elections. More than two-thirds -- 69 percent -- cited domestic issues, while 27 percent chose international issues.
Greenberg says the results show that Republicans running for Congress can't count on President Bush's popularity helping them much. "The Republican attempt to create coattails is likely to be trumped by a Democratic intention to wrap themselves in the war on terrorism -- which they've supported from the beginning -- and their determination to turn home to domestic issues," he says.
McInturff has been telling Republican House members that they'll have to campaign on more than taxes and terrorism to get re-elected. "The message is very clear -- it's education and prescription drugs," he says.
Poll: Americans Favor Privatizing Social Security
Listen to Mara Liasson's report.
See the complete results (in Powerpoint format)
See a text version of the survey (Adobe Acrobat reader needed).
April 1, 2002 -- A poll conducted for NPR shows that a large majority of Americans are worried about whether they will have enough money saved to retire. That's no surprise. What is surprising is that the same poll shows that despite the recent recession, declines in financial markets, and the collapse of Enron, Americans remain open to the idea of investing part of their Social Security taxes in the stock market.
The poll was conducted by Republican Bill McInturff and Democrat Stan Greenberg.
The survey shows that Americans are anxious after the Enron debacle, and that 59 percent favor more government oversight of private pensions. Still, more than half the respondents favor some form of privatization of Social Security, a share that shocked both pollsters. Of people younger than 65, 63 percent said they favor allowing people to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in the stock market. And a majority held to that opinion even when they were reminded of the Enron collapse.
The results run contrary to the conventional wisdom that Social Security is the untouchable "third rail" of American politics.
Other Resources
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
Public Opinion Strategies
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