|
Profile: Iraq's Al Samoud 2 Missiles
All Things Considered: February 25, 2003
 Experts Raise Estimates of Iraqi Missiles' Range
MELISSA BLOCK, host:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Melissa Block.
ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
And I'm Robert Siegel.
Within a few weeks it may all be academic, just another round of allegations, denials, threats and counterthreats between Iraq, the United States and the UN, but for the next few days the litmus test of Iraqi behavior is the controversy over a weapon called the Al Samoud 2. Its name is Arabic for steadfastness, and it's the missile that chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix says exceeds the 150-kilometer limit laid down by the UN.
BLOCK: In 1991, Iraq fired Scud missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Scuds weren't very accurate, but they could fly 300 kilometers and hit Tel Aviv. One term of Iraq's disarmament was not having any missiles that could go that far. In what seems to have been an arbitrary decision, Iraq was told the range of its missiles could not exceed 150 kilometers, half the range of the Scud. Eleven days ago Hans Blix told the Security Council he had found no stores of chemical or biological weapons and no clear evidence of a nuclear weapons program. But when it came to the missiles, his message was unmistakable: They must be destroyed and soon, starting March 1st.
SIEGEL: Iraq has protested that the Al Samoud 2 is permissible. Hans Blix's conclusion was based on the finding of a UN panel of experts. Richard Speier is a former Pentagon non-proliferation officer.
Mr. RICHARD SPEIER (Former Pentagon Non-proliferation Officer): The governments who provided panel members were the governments of the P5--the US, the UK, France, Russia and China--as well as the government of Ukraine.
SIEGEL: Speier concedes that the report of that panel has not been made public, but he says the UN's experts studied the information in Iraq's own massive declaration on its weapons of mass destruction.
Mr. SPEIER: Based only on their information, the range as tested was up to 22 percent greater than the allowed range.
SIEGEL: Another 33 kilometers, or about 21 miles. According to Richard Speier's arithmetic, that 22 percent increment in range doubles the area in which the missile can be based and still hit the same target.
How do the experts know what the missile's range is? Tim McCarthy inspected Iraqi missiles in the 1990s for the UN Special Commission, UNSCOM.
Mr. TIM McCARTHY (Former UN Weapons Inspector): There's two basic methods, both empirical--that is, you actually fly it and test it--and the second is to run simulations, and they're very effective computer simulations that tell you ranges. And in both cases, it's very clear that the missile flew consistently over 150 kilometers.
SIEGEL: Now there's some dispute at this point, Iraq claiming that actually if the missile is armed and loaded it doesn't go that far, and therefore it isn't a violation. Is that something that one uses the computer simulation for?
Mr. McCARTHY: The thing about that is the Iraqis have argued that, you know, when they put the weight of the warhead and a guidance system on a missile that it won't fly as far. Now theoretically that's absolutely the case. The problem is that, indeed, right now as it's being flown the missile does have warhead weight and the missile does have a guidance system. What actually Iraq wants to do and what they're not telling a lot of folks is that they want to put in a second guidance system.
SIEGEL: Why would you put a second guidance system into a single missile?
Mr. McCARTHY: It has to do with what they call terminal guidance. Terminal guidance is as the missile is descending, and it just makes the missile more accurate. And there's a lot of very complicated issues involved with that, not the least of which is any kind of terminal guidance system would require a number of years of work on the part of Iraq.
SIEGEL: So you're saying what the Iraqis claim would be a fully loaded Al Samoud 2 is nothing like the missile that they have right now.
Mr. McCARTHY: They are saying a fully loaded missile would be too heavy and, therefore, the range would be reduced. Except they're deploying the missile now without this second guidance system; therefore, the missile is operational and, therefore, it seems to me, they're flying it and it's certainly flying beyond the 150-kilometer range.
SIEGEL: Mr. McCarthy, thank you very much for talking with us.
Mr. McCARTHY: You're very welcome.
SIEGEL: Former UN weapons inspector Tim McCarthy.
The Al Samoud 2 has taken on great political significance. If Saddam Hussein destroys them, it could be argued that he's complying with the UN, arms inspections are working and might continue to work. If he refuses to comply with Hans Blix's demand, then it would be that much harder for France or Germany or Russia to argue that the UN inspectors are getting the job done. But how important a military asset is Saddam Hussein being told to relinquish? Retired Major General Robert Scales is former president of the US Army War College.
Is the Al Samoud 2 missile a very important weapon in Iraq's arsenal?
Major General ROBERT SCALES (Retired; Former President, US Army War College): It's only important if the delivery of weapons of mass destruction are important, and the only weapon of mass destruction that even remotely would fit on this missile would be chemical. So this is a weapon that's designed literally from the ground up to deliver chemical weapons.
SIEGEL: But what if, say, US troops were based in Kuwait poised to move on Iraq. Would they be a potential target for an attack with an Al Samoud 2 missile?
Maj. Gen. SCALES: Well, it's really hard to say. My understanding is this weapon has no terminal guidance, and it has an inertial guidance system not a great deal more sophisticated than the Scuds, perhaps even less so. So its accuracy is measured in thousands of meters. Now we can talk about chemical weapons being, you know, a weapon that's designed to cover large areas, but still it takes a great many of these missiles to create a footprint large enough to do any harm to American troops, particularly if the American troops are properly trained and equipped and warned that the missile is on the way.
So it truly is a unique terror weapon, the sort of weapon that's, again, very unique to the Iraqi military.
SIEGEL: Well, what roughly is the world's experience of the combat use of missiles of roughly this kind of range or potency?
Maj. Gen. SCALES: It's interesting you should ask that question, Robert, because the pedigree of this missile really goes back to the German V-2, which was developed, as you know, as a terror weapon back during World War II, and it was aimed at Antwerp and Copenhagen and London. It's always been considered or used as a terror weapon for--What?--almost 60 years now. The Scud is a direct derivation of the V-2, and the Al Samoud is an adaptation of the Scud.
SIEGEL: In that case, the decision of Saddam Hussein to relinquish it would be a reasonable test of his willingness to relinquish weapons of mass destruction in general.
Maj. Gen. SCALES: Very, very good point. If Saddam is intent on resisting this invasion using conventional military means, much as he did in 1991, then he would relinquish the missiles. If he intends perhaps to turn this campaign into a campaign of terror against the United States and against neighboring countries, he would probably hold on to it. So that's a very interesting litmus test, isn't it?
SIEGEL: General Scales, thank you very much for talking with us today.
Maj. Gen. SCALES: Thank you, Robert.
SIEGEL: Retired Major General Robert Scales, former president of the US Army War College.
Iraq's deputy prime minister, Tariq Aziz, said today that no decision has been made on whether to destroy the missiles. And as for chief UN arms inspector Blix, he, like the name of the missile in question, has remained steadfast.
Dr. HANS BLIX (Chief UN Weapons Inspector): We have set the date for the commencement of the destruction of these missiles, and we expect that to be respected.
SIEGEL: The deadline for starting to destroy the missiles is Saturday.
Copyright ©2003 National Public Radio®. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to National Public Radio. This transcript may not be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. For further information, please contact NPR's Permissions Coordinator at (202) 513-2000.
This transcript was created by a contractor for NPR, and NPR has not verified its accuracy. For all NPR programs, the broadcast audio should be considered the authoritative
version.
|
