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Analysis: Iraq Continues to Account for its Chemical Weapons; Turkey's Parliament Does not Give Permission for U.S. Military to Send Soldiers Through Turkey for Possible Invasion of Iraq
All Things Considered: March 2, 2003
 Iraq Destroys More Banned Missiles
STEVE INSKEEP, host:
As the Bush administration hunts for al-Qaeda members, it's also trying to set the conditions for a war against Iraq. That effort involves a very practical problem of simply getting troops in position, as we'll hear in a moment, and it also involves the diplomatic contests over efforts to disarm Iraq. In Baghdad today, an Iraqi official offered details of the way Iraq is accounting for chemical weapons, and reporter Paul Eedle listened in.
Paul, what did you hear today?
Mr. PAUL EEDLE (Reporter, Baghdad): Amir al-Saadi, who's the senior official dealing with the UN weapons inspectors, gave us really more detail than ever before on this issue. He described a meeting between his team and the UN weapons inspectors and exactly what they're discussing. He said that the Iraqis, for instance, at a site called al-Hakkam(ph), have been digging up R-400 bombs containing anthrax and botulinum toxin. They buried, they say, 157 bombs there. They found a lot of them, and eight are still intact and their contents could be tested.
At another site called al-Nasumna(ph), where Iraq says it destroyed 1 1/2 tons of VX nerve gas, again the Iraqis have tested the soil there, and Amir al-Saadi says that they thought from the levels of phosphorus in the tests, it should be possible to calculate and verify that it was, indeed, 1 1/2 tons destroyed.
INSKEEP: The chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, has said a number of times that there may be tons of chemical agents and other weapons that are unaccounted for. Is this the beginning of an Iraqi effort actually to do that?
Mr. EEDLE: It's very difficult to tell exactly what is going on here. Behind the scenes, the United Nations team is giving out the message that they feel Iraq is not yet cooperating enough, and they're frustrated that concessions seem to be made at the last possible moment. On the Iraqi side, they're trying to give the impressions through briefings like this one today that they are volunteering information, that and they are covering all the bases.
INSKEEP: Reporter Paul Eedle is in Baghdad. Paul, thanks very much.
Mr. EEDLE: Thank you. Good night.
Bush administration officials are repeating their view that Iraq is playing a game of deception and that war is inevitable. But the US is still struggling to get cooperation from allies that may be critical to any attack. This weekend, Turkey's parliament failed to give the United States permission to send soldiers through Turkey on their way to Iraq. Retired US Army Major General Robert Scales is an NPR military consultant and joins us next.
General, I know Turkey could reconsider, but they say they're not going to do it for a while. So what does this do to US military planning?
Major General ROBERT SCALES (US Army, Retired; NPR Military Consultant): Well, that's an important question, Steve, because, you know, any time a nation is sort of in the march to war, you reach a point where the diplomatic clock begins to run against the military clock. In other words, time taken to make key diplomatic decisions in order to facilitate the military side of the operation often begins to conflict, and I think that's where we are today.
INSKEEP: And you also have the seasonal clock. I know US military planners would like to get any invasion over with before the hot weather arrives. And with just a few weeks left, you begin to wonder if the timetable is getting to be impractical.
SCALES: That's right. There's a thing in the Middle East called the April shear(ph), which is a time beginning about the second week in April when the temperature begins to elevate at about 2 to 3 degrees a day. And so it gets very hot at the end of April.
But you also have to consider the issue about the Iraq army. I mean, the longer the military waits to press on with this campaign, the more time the Iraqis have to reposition the Republican Guard, to begin to set up a citadel type of defense around Baghdad. So the clock is ticking and the time is slipping away.
INSKEEP: Can the US realistically go to war without the assistance of Turkey?
SCALES: Oh, I think they could. It certainly complicates the strategic problem. You know, it's a tenet of modern warfare, particularly the American style of war, that the military seeks to approach the enemy from many different directions and many different dimensions. That complicates the enemy's ability to defend. And a second front or a third front would have been very useful to the military planners. But then again, time is against us at this point.
INSKEEP: Well, General, can you foresee the military reaching a point where this operation is just too complicated to pull off, at least at the moment?
SCALES: No, I don't think so. As time goes by, the military will decide on going from a two-front war to a one-front war. And as long as there's time to reposition forces in the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal and to Kuwait, then there is sufficient time to set all of this up. The main issue with time in this case, Steve, is the advantage that it gives to the enemy in allowing him to face in only one direction.
INSKEEP: General Robert Scales is the author most recently of "Yellow Smoke: The Future of Land Warfare for America's Military." He also wrote a history of the Persian Gulf War in 1991. General, thanks very much.
SCALES: Thank you, Steve.
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