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Interview: Daoud Kuttab and Hirsh Goodman Discuss Details of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Speech
All Things Considered: December 16, 2004
A Reality Check on Prospects for Mideast Peace
ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
Mahmoud Abbas' rejection notwithstanding, today's speech by Ariel Sharon is one of several recent optimistic expressions in the Middle East. Egypt and Israel have exchanged prisoners. And Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has explicitly criticized the militarization of the Palestinian intifada. For a reality check, we've called upon two columnists, as we often do: Israeli Hirsh Goodman and Daoud Kuttab. Daoud Kuttab, who is Palestinian, says Mahmoud Abbas' comments today do not dim his optimism about Sharon's statement.
Mr. DAOUD KUTTAB (Director, Institute for Modern Media, Al-Quds University; Columnist, Jordan Times): I think it does bode goodwill for at least the short term. Certainly there's a lot of efforts, and lots of parties and organizations and certainly the peoples of both Palestine and Israel are interested in moving the process forward. Is it going to really help us make it through to the comprehensive solution? I think it's too early to say.
SIEGEL: Hirsh Goodman, are you at all hopeful? And if so, why?
Mr. HIRSH GOODMAN (Columnist, Jerusalem Report; Senior Fellow, Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies): Well, I am hopeful because if you don't live with hope in this region, you're in big trouble. But there is a confluence of events: the second Bush administration; the death of Arafat; and Ariel Sharon, who seems to have gone through an epiphany and understands that this country cannot remain but a democracy and continue to conquer the territories. Tonight he outlined a vision at the Herzliya Conference, which basically has--it sounds very much--almost like the Clinton parameters, a couple of nuances here or there. So there are a lot of very positive things out there.
SIEGEL: Daoud, Hirsh Goodman has mentioned the Clinton parameters by which--he's talking about essentially the terms that were on the table at Camp David for then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and for Yasser Arafat back in 2000. Would such a solution actually be amenable to the Palestinians today?
Mr. KUTTAB: I think after four years of the intifada and the violence and the killings and the destruction of Palestinian homes and lives and so on, a lot of people are saying that we should really take a serious look at what was offered. So I think if we can be talking about things that are close to what was agreed upon in that late 2000, then I think, yes, that's something that Palestinians can live with.
SIEGEL: Hirsh Goodman, I want to ask you about what you said when you referred to the epiphany of Ariel Sharon. Why? Why a change of heart on the part of a leader who was associated for decades with the policy of planting settlements in Gaza and the West Bank? What has changed for him?
Mr. GOODMAN: Well, actually, nothing's changed, because for Ariel Sharon, settlements weren't a religious land-of-Israel issue. They were security issue. There's was a hostile Iraq out there. There was a hostile Egypt out there. Settlements were seen as a way of retaining territory that had strategic depth. But the strategic threat to Israel today is demography, and he's understood that. It's no longer the Iraqi army. It's--you know, it's Iran with long-range missiles, but they're not on our border. The real strategic threat to Israel is demography to Israel as a democratic state. And if you look at his speech tonight, it was very carefully crafted to deal on the whole issue of demography.
SIEGEL: Let me just explain demography for a second. The concern that you're saying Prime Minister Sharon feels is that if Israel remains in charge of a population with so many Palestinians in it, ultimately Jews will be a minority in what would appear to simply be an undemocratic state.
Mr. GOODMAN: Yes, exactly. I mean, Israel's choices are very, very stark. We can either retrench--the numbers--by the year 2010, there will be more Palestinians between the sea and the Jordan River than there will be Jews. So what are you going to do? You're going to occupy them and have two sets of laws? It'll change the nature of Israel as a open, democratic, free society, and we don't want to be come a pariah state similar to South Africa at the time. We want to be a Jewish state that is a democracy. And Sharon has, I think, understood that.
SIEGEL: Daoud Kuttab, do Palestinians see in those Israeli calculations about demography the prospects for a secure, viable state, or are they concerned that perhaps Israel may just get out of Gaza, get the numbers that it wants, and remain de facto the power in the West Bank?
Mr. KUTTAB: There is the worry about temporary solutions becoming permanent. And the whole idea of the unilateral withdrawal, if it is no longer a unilateral one, but a bilateral one, then why just do Gaza and why not work on what was talked about in the Oslo process and in the road map? So people are a bit worried, but people I've talked to in Ramallah and Jerusalem, in Gaza are hoping that we could really move very quickly into anything the process--you know, the checkpoints are still there, traveling restrictions are still very difficult, and there's still thousands of Palestinians in jails, so people expect...
Mr. GOODMAN: Daoud...
Mr. KUTTAB: ...things happening there.
Mr. GOODMAN: ...but, Daoud, you know, there was a very positive thing that happened now is that the Palestinian Tourism Authority and tourism minister has been meeting with the Israeli tourism minister, and they've got a terrific agreement worked out for Christmas for the first time in four years. No roadblocks, free access and so on, so I agree with the optimism, but at the same time, you still got mortars and Qassam rockets falling all over out of Gaza...
Mr. KUTTAB: No, we do need the cease-fire on both sides. And I think...
Mr. GOODMAN: Yeah.
Mr. KUTTAB: ...the Palestinians certainly have made the right hints and statements, and I hope...
Mr. GOODMAN: Yeah.
Mr. KUTTAB: ...that we can get the Israelis to stop the assassinations and both sides can really commit and agree to a clear cease-fire.
Mr. GOODMAN: Well, he did give a very good speech today, Sharon, in that regard.
SIEGEL: Well, thanks to both of you for your...
Mr. KUTTAB: Thank you, Robert.
SIEGEL: ...reality check with us. That's Daoud Kuttab, joining us from Amman, and Hirsh Goodman from Jerusalem.
Mr. GOODMAN: Thank you, Robert.
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