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Promises of peace shape Palestinian public opinion
All Things Considered:January 19, 2006
Promises of Peace Shape Palestinian Public Opinion
MELISSA BLOCK, host:
Khalil Shikaki measures Palestinian public opinion with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. And he thinks that next week, Hamas will win well more than the predicted one-third of the vote. His prediction is that Hamas will get more than 40 percent. Shikaki says Hamas has gained in strength as its rival Fatah has fractured and failed to offer progress toward peace.
Dr. KHALIL SHIKAKI (Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research): People wanted to vote for Fatah because they believed Fatah can deliver on the peace process while Hamas could not. But they look around and they see no progress in the peace process whatsoever even though the man who has been elected a year ago is supposedly the man of peace. The conclusion of the public is, it doesn’t really matter who rules the Palestinians. Therefore Israel has no intention of moving forward on the peace process and so the biggest asset for Fatah, ability to deliver a peace agreement with the Israelis isn’t really operating. And that serves Hamas’s interests.
BLOCK: I’d like to ask you about what could be seen as contradiction. Your most recent report says that Palestinians’ will for a two state solution has never been as great as today. And I’m trying to figure out how to square that with the public support for Hamas, which has also vowed that Israel as a country has to be destroyed. How did those two things get reconciled?
Dr. SHIKAKI: It does create a certain contradiction with the rise and support for Hamas, however, I would say that that is true if one is to consider the peace process as the most significant driving force for voters, which unfortunately isn’t. You see, if there was progress in the peace process it would be, but there is no progress in the peace process as I said earlier. The ability of Fatah to deliver on the peace process does not exist.
Fatah has been accused by the public, perceived by the public, of being corrupt, being unable to deliver a good government or a clean government. Hamas is perceived as uncorrupt. The incorruptibility of Hamas is a great asset for Hamas, particularly at a time when the public thinks that fighting corruption should be the top priority of the Palestinian political system.
BLOCK: If there’s this confluence of public opinion being more strongly behind Hamas than it may have been before, and at the same time Hamas entering the political process, do you see that that public opinion ends up as a moderating force on Hamas or would you say that’s naïve and wishful thinking?
Dr. SHIKAKI: The moderation we will see in Hamas I believe will be more procedural, more on the process than on the substance. In the long run it will happen, we will see more moderation, but in the short run I think Hamas will be willing to show moderation, for example, with regard to arms, with regard to militias. If the Parliament and the Cabinetry for example decides that Hamas must disarm and disband its militia, I believe Hamas will be willing to accept that and go along with it, knowing that this is what the majority of the public also wants.
BLOCK: And would you expect to see any public repudiation from Hamas of their core belief that Israel should not exist?
SHIKAKI: I do believe that Hamas will soon begin to grapple with this issue. And one way I believe in the midterm that I see Hamas beginning to address it, is by saying that Israel exists on de fact basis and that Hamas will deal with it and recognize it as such on de facto basis. But I believe Hamas will do its best to stay away from statements like Hamas recognizes Israel’s right to exist or that it recognizes Israel on (unintelligible) basis. I think this is something for the long run and not for the short or mid term.
BLOCK: Khalil Shikaki, thanks very much.
Dr. SHIKAKI: You’re welcome.
BLOCK: Khalil Shikaki is Director of the PALESTINIAN Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah in the West Bank. His new report for the United States Institute of Peace is titled Willing to Compromise, Palestinian Public Opinion and the Peace Process. There’s a link to the report at our website, npr.org.
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