Analysis: Turks Express Their Views on War With Iraq

Morning Edition: November 15, 2002

JACKIE JUDD, host:

Turkey is one of many countries following the buildup to a possible US invasion of Iraq with considerable apprehension. Nearly all Turks oppose a new war with their neighbor to the south, but many believe their country will have no choice but to participate in any US-led military operation. NPR's Ivan Watson reports.

SOUNDBITE OF PEOPLE TALKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE

IVAN WATSON reporting:

In a village tea shop in central Anatolia, customers sit and talk of war.

SOUNDBITE OF PEOPLE TALKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE

WATSON: `The last time the US attacked Iraq, it cost Turkey billions of dollars,' they say. `It killed tourism here, and if there's another war, our country will pay the bill.' Turkey is a close US ally. In 1991, it was one of the first countries to join the US-led Gulf War coalition. But today, says political scientist Sahin Alpay, everyone's against a new war in neighboring Iraq.

Mr. SAHIN ALPAY (Political Scientist): Especially when we're economically in such a bad situation, and especially when for the last two decades we have had so many people dying in the fight against Kurdish separatism. People simply don't want war.

WATSON: For more than a decade now, the United Nations embargo against Baghdad has largely deprived Turkey of its once lucrative trade with Iraq. That's one factor that has contributed to Turkey's worst economic depression since World War II. Analysts worry that any new conflict with Iraq would only make matters worse. Banker Marco Inunziato(ph) says that a conflict could strangle Turkey's vital $8 billion tourist industry.

Mr. MARCO INUNZIATO (Banker): Turkey relies a lot on tourism, not so much for growth but as a source of foreign exchange, which it needs to repay foreign debt. And there is the risk, of course, that a prolonged war against Iraq would scare tourists off and, therefore, dry up this precious source of foreign exchange.

WATSON: Turkey is also concerned that a US invasion to topple Saddam Hussein could lead Iraq's Kurds to declare an independent state in the northern part of the country. That, say Turkish analysts, could rekindle aspirations for independence among Turkey's Kurdish minority. And yet, despite these apprehensions, Turkey is already playing a pivotal role in the US confrontation with Iraq.

SOUNDBITE OF JETS

WATSON: US and British warplanes fly regular patrols over Iraq's northern no-fly zone from Incirlik air base in southern Turkey. That base is likely to be even more important in the event of a US invasion of Iraq. Ilter Turkman is a former Turkish foreign minister.

Mr. ILTER TURKMAN (Former Turkish Foreign Minister): We are strategic partners with the US, and the US has been very supportive of Turkey in many instances. So I don't think that any Turkish government will refuse the use of bases to the United States.

WATSON: But Turkish military cooperation may come at a cost. General Hilmi Ozkok is the commander of Turkey's armed forces.

General HILMI OZKOK (Commander, Turkey's Armed Forces): (Through Translator) We expect to suffer a great deal of damage in the event of a new operation against Iraq. I told the Americans these economic losses should be met with some kind of compensation.

WATSON: Ozkok spoke after a week of talks in Washington, as the Bush administration considers a major new aid package for Turkey. Ivan Watson, NPR News, Istanbul.

JUDD: The time is 11 minutes before the hour.

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