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Analysis: Colin Powell's Speech Today Before The U.N. Security Council

Morning Edition: February 5, 2003

Powell to Address United Nations on Iraq

BOB EDWARDS, host:

This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Bob Edwards.

The UN Security Council meets this morning to consider evidence that, according to the United States, will show that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction in violation of UN resolutions. Secretary of State Colin Powell will state the US case in what is expected to be a lengthy presentation of newly declassified intelligence. The quality of that evidence will be a critical factor in the days ahead as the Security Council decides whether Iraq's behavior warrants the use of military action. NPR's Vicky O'Hara is in New York.

Vicky, good morning.

VICKY O'HARA reporting:

Good morning, Bob.

EDWARDS: Those opposing the use of force have been urging the United States to present the evidence it has that Iraq is defying the UN. Is Powell presenting that evidence today?

O'HARA: US officials say that Secretary Powell will speak for an hour, probably longer, giving a very detailed briefing to other members of the Security Council that, according to US officials, will provide a compelling picture of Iraq's defiance. Powell himself says the evidence will not constitute what's come to be called the smoking gun, but US officials say that the pattern of deliberate concealment of Iraq's weapons activities and its attempts to obstruct weapons inspections by the United Nations will be very clear.

The presentation is supposed to have an audio-visual component, including satellite photographs. One administration official says that there's one photograph, which was taken during weapons inspections over the past two months, which shows Iraqis trying to conceal something as UN weapons inspectors were moving in on the site. The evidence also is supposed to include electronic intelligence, meaning recorded conversations, the conversations of Iraqi officials, that supposedly back up the US accusation that Iraq is doing everything in its power to obstruct the inspections.

EDWARDS: And this presentation is going to be in public, broadcast live.

O'HARA: Yes, and that made the job of deciding how much information to reveal extremely difficult for the United States. Just 24 hours ago, US officials at various government agencies were still debating what material they were going to declassify. They wanted to make a convincing case to some very skeptical members of the Security Council, but they also don't want to jeopardize people's lives as well as sources of intelligence.

EDWARDS: Will the other members of the Security Council get a chance to respond?

O'HARA: Yes, they will. There won't be a debate, as such. Real debates in the Security Council usually take place behind closed doors. But after Powell finishes his briefing, the other 14 nations on the council will have a chance to make some brief remarks. Eleven countries, in addition to the United States, have sent their foreign ministers to New York for this session, which just shows you how very seriously everyone views this event. The council members have chosen lots to decide the order in which they speak. China goes second, Britain is third, Russia's fourth and so on down the list. Iraq's UN ambassador, Mohammed al-Douri, also has asked to speak. Iraq is not a member of the council, but since Iraq is the issue, that request presumably will be granted, and al-Douri would speak last.

EDWARDS: Is the Security Council expected to make any decisions today or even this week on the Powell presentation?

O'HARA: No. After the presentation, there's going to be a luncheon for the Security Council where they can discuss the issue in private. After that, Secretary of State Powell continues his one-on-one meetings with individual council members through the afternoon. But nothing is going to happen immediately because this weekend the chief UN weapons inspectors are planning to go back to Baghdad to make yet another attempt to get more cooperation on outstanding issues, things like getting private interviews with Iraqi scientists. And how Iraq responds to the inspectors' demands will be really a pivotal factor in the coming weeks. The inspectors are due to report back to the Security Council on February 14th, and that report could very well determine what the council decides to do.

In the meantime, the United States and Britain will keep up the pressure on the United Nations. There's going to be a lot of negotiating and a lot of diplomatic arm-twisting in the weeks ahead.

EDWARDS: NPR's Vicky O'Hara in New York.

There's background on the standoff with Iraq, including the "CIA World Fact Book," at npr.org.

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