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ANALYSIS: NEW POLL REVEALS COMPLEX ISSUE FOR PALESTINIAN REFUGEES
Morning Edition: July 21, 2003
Palestinian Refugees
BOB EDWARDS, host:
The volatile issue of Palestinian refugees and the right of return sparked a riot in the West Bank last week when a Palestinian pollster tried to release results of his survey. The poll found that the vast majority of those forced from their homes when Israel was created in 1948 had no interest in living in the Jewish state. Israel has maintained that an influx of millions of Palestinian refugees would dramatically alter the makeup of the country's population and leave Jews in a minority. The groundbreaking opinion poll and the riot over its release reflect the complexity of the refugee issue and the passionate feelings it generates. NPR's Peter Kenyon reports.
PETER KENYON reporting:
Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research knew the refugee issue was volatile, that's why he wanted to present the results to the Palestinian press first.
SOUNDBITE OF ANGRY MOB
KENYON: But he wasn't expecting the mob scene that developed. As he stood amid the broken furniture and egg-splattered walls of his Ramallah office last Sunday, Shikaki explained to reporters that despite the hotheaded acts of a few hardliners his poll shows that most refugees themselves have a remarkedly pragmatic view of the situation. While they want the right of return upheld as a matter of principle, when it comes to where they actually want to live, roughly 90 percent of the refugees living in Lebanon, Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza, chose somewhere other than Israel. Most opted to live in an independent state of Palestine. Shikaki said the poll numbers suggest Israeli's need not fear being overwhelmed by a flood of Palestinian refugees.
Dr. KHALIL SHIKAKI (Director, Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research): The talk about the destruction of the state of Israel through the right of return is nonsense based on the survey. What Israel gets is essentially a small number of refugees. What it's required to do is recognize the right of return.
KENYON: That is something Israel has been unwilling to do ever since more than 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes during the war declared by Arab states following the United Nations' vote creating the state of Israel in 1947. The following year the UN approved Revolution 194 which said refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbors should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date.
From the first conference on the issue in 1949 until today, Israel has refused to accept the return of any specific number of refugees although a figure of 100,000 was floated early on and then quickly withdrawn. The closest the two sides came was at the Egyptian resort of Taba in 2001 when negotiators discussed a framework of options for refugees to choose among. Those options were similar to the ones presented to refugees this year in Shikaki's survey.
The refugee poll isn't the only hopeful sign in a generally pessimistic landscape. A joint survey of Israelis and Palestinians in June found that a majority on both sides would support a mutual recognition of Israel as a state for the Jews and Palestine as a state for the Palestinians. Survey organizers said once again individual Palestinians and Israelis responding anonymously to poll questions showed far more flexibility on a thorny issue then the public rhetoric might suggest.
Israeli pollster Yakov Shamir told a Jerusalem audience earlier this month that while 52 percent of Palestinians said they would recognize Israel as a Jewish state, only 40 percent thought that was the majority view.
Mr. YAKOV SHAMIR (Israeli Pollster): We call this situation pluralistic ignorance. When a gap exists between what people think privately and what they believe is public opinion on an issue.
KENYON: Some analysts read the gap between privately held views and the perception of what's acceptable as an indication that the two sides are still not ready for the dramatic compromises needed to achieve the type of two-state solution envisioned by the international road map for peace. One Palestinian activist, Mustafa Barghouti, says it's the leaders who aren't ready for peace, not the two peoples.
Mr. MUSTAFA BARGHOUTI (Palestinian Activist): I was riding in a plane with an Israeli and we discussed the situation. It shocked me we were so much in agreement. If we could conclude agreement we could have done it in one hour in this plane. To be honest with you, I think the public is more ready then the leaders.
KENYON: But it's the leaders who hold the fate of the road map in their hands as Mahmoud Abbas and Ariel Sharon prepare for their White House meetings. Peter Kenyon, NPR News.
EDWARDS: The time is 29 minutes past the hour.
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