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Interview: Joseph Cirincione discusses Israel's nuclear situation
Morning Edition: July 6, 2004
ElBaradei to Press Israel on Nuclear Weapons Disclosure
RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Renee Montagne.
STEVE INSKEEP, host:
And I'm Steve Inskeep.
Today the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency travels to Israel. Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to confront Israeli officials about the country's nuclear program. Israel neither admits nor denies having nuclear weapons, but most experts believe Israel possesses them. One of those experts is Joseph Cirincione, who is director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and he's in our studios this morning.
Good morning.
Mr. JOSEPH CIRINCIONE (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace): Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: So what does Israel have, exactly?
Mr. CIRINCIONE: Well, we don't know for sure, but most experts believe they have about 100 nuclear weapons and have had a nuclear arsenal since the late 1960s.
INSKEEP: And how can they deliver these nuclear weapons to an enemy country?
Mr. CIRINCIONE: They have a variety of means: aircraft, short-range ballistic missiles, and in the last few years they've added three submarines we believe are equipped with cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.
INSKEEP: I understand those reports are disputed about whether Israel has submarines or not that can fire nuclear missiles.
Mr. CIRINCIONE: Well, everything about Israel's program is disputed. They have a policy they call `nuclear ambiguity.' They neither confirm nor deny their nuclear arsenal, so we have to piece these things together from press reports, intelligence reports, etc.
INSKEEP: Which cuts both ways. It could be that Israel has an arsenal that it tries to partly hide, or it could be that it sort of lets this information be known and it's sort of a bluff.
Mr. CIRINCIONE: It--I don't think it's a bluff. We're able to confirm enough about their program that we know, for example, that they have a nuclear reactor, Dimona, out in the Negev Desert. In fact, they recently have put photos of that facility up on the Internet for the first time. The Israeli Atomic Energy Agency has opened up its first-ever Web site in recent weeks. Most if it's in Hebrew, but there is some English portions where people can go and see the Dimona reactor.
INSKEEP: Who helped Israel to build that nuclear arsenal?
Mr. CIRINCIONE: Well, they largely did it on their own, but they received substantial assistance, either willingly or unwillingly, from France, from United States and from Great Britain.
INSKEEP: Now Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is on his way to Israel--in Israel today. What do you think he wants to accomplish?
Mr. CIRINCIONE: Well, he's hoping to balance out the overall approach in the Middle East. The director general strongly believes that the only way to stop new countries--for example, Iran--from getting nuclear weapons is if those countries that already have nuclear weapons more firmly commit to getting rid of them. Now most attention focuses on the United States and Russia, the countries with the largest nuclear arsenals, but in the Middle East you have to talk about Israel. There's no chance that Arab or Muslim nations are going to permanently give up their nuclear ambitions unless Israel is willing to end its nuclear program.
INSKEEP: Although there's a catch-22, isn't there? Because if you push Israel, they can say, `Well, look, Iran has some kind of nuclear program, and we can't take the chance of being without nuclear weapons.'
Mr. CIRINCIONE: That's exactly the problem you have. Most experts agree that Israel would be better off in a nuclear-free Middle East; that is, a country where no one has nuclear weapons. Israel has conventional superiority. There's no nation or group of nations that can defeat it militarily. It's in Israel's interest to prevent other countries from acquiring nuclear weapons. But in order to do that, they've got to take their bombs out of the basement and put them on the negotiating table. That is a very tough psychological obstacle to overcome.
INSKEEP: Is it fair to say that Israel, up to now, has been treated differently than Iran or North Korea, say?
Mr. CIRINCIONE: Israel's nuclear arsenal is never mentioned by the United States. We never talk about it. And that fact has not gone unnoticed in the Middle East. Iran, for example, says, `Why are you talking about our program when you never talk about Israel?' It's partially for that reason that Mohamed ElBaradei is going to Jerusalem today.
INSKEEP: Thanks very much.
Mr. CIRINCIONE: My pleasure.
INSKEEP: Joseph Cirincione is director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and he is the author of "Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction."
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