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Analysis: Palestinian Elections
Talk of the Nation: January 6, 2005
 Palestinian Elections: Looking Ahead
NEAL CONAN, host:
This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington.
On Sunday, Palestinians go to the polls to elect a new president of the Palestinian Authority, the successor to the late Yasser Arafat. His longtime associate, Mahmoud Abbas, is expected to win handily. While the man known as Abu Mazen lacks Arafat's revolutionary charisma, he is one of the founders of Fatah, the largest and most important group in the Palestinian Liberation Organization, and served as Palestinian prime minister for nearly four months in 2003. The campaign is being watched closely. We'll bring you an update in just a moment.
But many Palestinians and Israelis believe the president's performance after the election will prove more important. The issues are familiar: violence, occupation, relations with Israel and the economy. Abbas called for an end to what he described as `useless attacks on Israel,' but also defended Palestinian fighters as heroes. The PLO's biggest rival, Hamas, declined to run a presidential candidate, but did unexpectedly well in municipal elections and says it has no interest in anti-military operations or in cooperation with Israel.
Later in the program, Democrats challenge the vote of the Electoral College. But first, the Palestinian election. If you have questions about the candidates, the peace process or the prospects for Palestinian democracy, give us a call. Our number here in Washington is (800) 989-8255. That's (800) 989-TALK. The e-mail address is totn@npr.org.
And we begin with NPR correspondent Peter Kenyon, who joins us from Jerusalem. Good to talk to you, Peter.
PETER KENYON reporting:
Hi, Neal. How are you?
CONAN: Very well, thanks. Mahmoud Abbas is clearly the front-runner in this election. Why is he getting so much support?
KENYON: Well, because he is the Fatah candidate is the short answer. Fatah is, as you said, the dominant movement inside the Palestinian Authority, and he has been the leader briefly as a prime minister. They know him. He's a longtime--one of the founders, as you said, of Fatah, so he has the full weight of this dominant Fatah movement behind him, and he also has the support of many international governments. Though they claim not to be taking sides, clearly other Palestinian candidates are saying it's been a lot easier for Mahmoud Abbas, for instance, to get across these Israeli checkpoints and campaign in the West Bank and Gaza. And there's been some grumbling about that, but clearly, he has gotten the most media exposure. People are talking more about him than any of the other candidates. And frankly, a lot of people are considering it pretty much a done deal; the question being the margin.
CONAN: Who are his opponents?
KENYON: There's a series of candidates who are polling around 2 percent, independent candidates, leftist candidates, and then there's one exception to that, Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, who has climbed well over 20 percent in one poll. Now that's still well behind Mahmoud Abbas, but a very respectable second place; a big surge, in fact, in such a very short campaign season that we've had here. Now he runs on political positions that aren't all that different from Mahmoud Abbas, but he has the added advantage on the Palestinian street of not being part of the old guard. He runs an anti-corruption campaign largely, and that is very appealing to a lot of Palestinians.
CONAN: And while they share the last name, Mustafa Barghouti should not be confused with Marwan Barghouti.
KENYON: No. It's a very big family. There are some distant family connections between various Barghoutis. There's an analyst, Hasan Barghouti, who's a labor analyst. There's some writers named Barghouti, and then Dr. Mustafa Barghouti is, of course, an NGO head, Palestinian Medical Relief Society. And Marwan Barghouti was the Fatah secretary-general who's now in jail, convicted of organizing attacks against Israelis.
CONAN: Now Hamas, the biggest rival to the PLO, decided to boycott the presidential election. How come?
KENYON: They've decided--this is what analysts are telling me, Palestinian analysts--that the time isn't right for them to get into presidential elections. It would be a very problematic thing for them as well, because they don't recognize Israel. They don't recognize them not just within the '67 borders, but in the 1948 borders between the river and the sea, as we say here. So it would be very hard for them to then be in that position of being in charge of the Palestinian Authority, which was created as part of the Oslo Accords, in part so they could negotiate with Israel on the final status of a two-state solution.
They did, however, as you mentioned in the introduction, do quite well in local voting. They may even participate, if there are elections next year, as we expect, for the legislature. So there appears to be an incremental turning now of Hamas toward the political front. They, of course, have a military ring that is responsible for a number of attacks against Israeli civilians, a large number. They also have charitable wings that are responsible for kindergartens in Gaza City, a number of other activities that bring them great appeal on the Palestinian streets; not very much, of course, in Israel or the US or other international governments.
CONAN: While we're focusing on this program, of course, on the Palestinian election, in Israel yesterday, Prime Minster Sharon announced a new government coalition would be in place by next week. What's the meaning of that? What's also the composition of that coalition?
KENYON: Well, an Ultra-Orthodox party, goes by the initials UTJ, agreed to join. That will give Mr. Sharon a parliamentary majority. I believe it's about 66 seats out of a hundred and twenty in the Knesset. The short answer is this gives him enough time--three months to be precise--this is kind of a probationary government, this coalition, which includes the center left Labor Party, by the way, and Sharon's Likud Party. The idea is that this gives Sharon time enough to pass the budget, to have a vote on the disengagement, the withdrawal of the Jewish presence in the Gaza Strip and from four settlements in the northern West Bank, and perhaps get even started on that process. Of course, that three-month period is going to be up right about the time that they would begin thinking seriously about starting to pull some of those Gaza settlers out. So there's probably another chapter or two to be written there.
CONAN: Peter Kenyon, thanks, as always.
KENYON: You're welcome, Neal.
CONAN: NPR correspondent Peter Kenyon joined us by line from Jerusalem.
And joining us now to talk about voter logistics and expect voter turnout is Les Campbell, the Mideast director of the National Democratic Institute, which is monitoring Sunday's election. He joined us by phone from Jerusalem. Good to have you on the program.
Mr. LES CAMPBELL (National Democratic Institute): Oh, it's great to be on.
CONAN: There has been an escalation of violence in Gaza over the past week or so. Do you expect that to affect voter turnout on Sunday?
Mr. CAMPBELL: It could, and that's one of the concerns we're looking at as observers. There are some opinions being expressed here that there's a concerted attempt to drive down voter turnout by firing rockets and generally causing problems, which the Israelis react to, and in it's entirely possible that with the helicopters flying and the tanks on the streets, that voters may come out in smaller numbers. But we don't know. I mean, it's also possible that voters will feel sufficiently motivated by the ability to go to the polls and choose the leader, that they'll be able to look by some of the military activity.
CONAN: And turnout would be critical, depending on what it is, to the stature of the victor.
Mr. CAMPBELL: Yeah, it will. In fact, a number of analysts that we've been speaking to as we go through briefings with the observer delegation have commented that voter turnout numbers may be as interesting ultimately as the percentage that the winning candidate gets, in the sense that Hamas and other groups have if not called directly for a boycott, because they're hedging a little bit, have been discouraging people from voting, and they may use low voter turnout to bolster their case that the eventual winner of this election doesn't have a full mandate. You know, I personally think that's perhaps, you know, not necessarily a valid claim, but that's certainly a possibility. So turnout is important.
CONAN: Let's get a listener involved in the conversation. By the way, if you'd care to join us, our number is (800) 989-8255. Our e-mail address, totn@npr.org. And joining us is Fifi, who's calling from Columbia, South Carolina.
FIFI (Caller): Yes, Neal, can you hear me?
CONAN: Yes, you're on the air. Go ahead.
FIFI: Yes, sir. I'm an Arab-American, and I just want to make a statement and I want to ask a question, and I'll listen on the air since I don't have my radio on right now. First of all, I think it should be known that Hamas was created by the Israelis as an alternative to the PLO. I don't think many people know that.
But another thing, I'm curious to know what's going to be done in order not to preclude people that want to vote in Jerusalem. That happened before. I think President Carter even indicated there were problems getting people in Jerusalem to be able to vote.
And one more thing. I think Abu Mazen belongs to the old group, and I think the Palestinian people really want a change, not only a change--and I hate to say it as a Palestinian--but a change from what they see as somewhat of a corruption in the PLO, and I think Mustafa Barghouti--and I'd like to hear comments on that--I mean, Dr. Marwan--excuse me--would be, you know, a welcome alternative.
CONAN: Well, we'll talk about...
FIFI: And th...
CONAN: We'll talk about that part later, Fifi. But thank you...
FIFI: OK.
CONAN: ...for the call. We'll address your question about voting in Jerusalem. W...
FIFI: All right. I'll stay on the air so...
CONAN: OK.
FIFI: I mean, I'll stay on the phone.
CONAN: All right. With Les Campbell. Go ahead. We're going to talk about that later in the program, Fifi, so...
FIFI: OK.
CONAN: ...that's going to be a while, but let's talk...
FIFI: That's fine.
CONAN: ...to Les Campbell about the voting in Jerusalem.
Mr. CAMPBELL: Well, to address the voting in Jerusalem--by the way, actually, the caller mentioned President Carter, who is in the room next to me. He is a part of the observer delegation that is here to watch. The question of voting in Jerusalem is a big issue. In fact, President Carter just met with Prime Minister Sharon earlier, where assurances were given that the Israelis have been saying now for weeks, that two things will happen. One is that Palestinians can vote in East Jerusalem, and the Israelis have made that clear. They have facilitated that process so far.
And the second assurance that Israelis have given is that they will provide freedom of movement for Palestinian voters. So every indication out here right now is that the Israelis are quite willing to facilitate voting by Palestinians. But there are issues. I mean, I don't want to gloss over the problems. There have been very few Palestinians registered in East Jerusalem. There are a whole variety of complex reasons the Palestinians have chosen not to register. So the turnout in East Jerusalem may be low. But I wouldn't ascribe that particularly to Hamas or to any other intimidation. There are, you know, a variety of reasons for that.
CONAN: We just have a few seconds left. Have the Israelis facilitated the movement of Palestinian candidates?
Mr. CAMPBELL: Well, they have. It's been spotty. Mustafa Barghouti, who's one of--you know, a very credible candidates who's been running a good campaign, trying hard, has been detained on and off at checkpoints, but ultimately let through. He's been in Gaza several times, which has been a rare occurrence in recent years for a West Bank resident. So candidates are moving around. Most Palestinians that we've been talking to have said that the movement for candidates and for election officials has been better than they expected. It's not full freedom of movement, but there has been, I think, sufficient movement to put on credible campaigns.
CONAN: Les Campbell, thanks very much for joining us, and we'll look forward to hearing from you in the aftermath of the election this weekend.
Mr. CAMPBELL: You're welcome. It's a pleasure.
CONAN: Les Campbell is Mideast director for the National Democratic Institute. He joined us by phone from Jerusalem. When we come back from a break, more on the Palestinian election; more of your calls, (800) 989-8255. You can also send us e-mail, totn@npr.org.
I'm Neal Conan. This is TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News.
SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC
CONAN: This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington.
We're talking about this weekend's election for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority. What does it mean for the peace process and for Palestinian democracy? Our phone number is (800) 989-8255, (800) 989-TALK. The e-mail address is totn@npr.org.
And joining us now is Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He's with us by phone from his home in Maryland. Shibley Telhami, always good to speak with you.
Professor SHIBLEY TELHAMI (University of Maryland; The Brookings Institution): Good to talk with you.
CONAN: Tell us a little bit more about Mahmoud Abbas. We've heard him described as one of the founders of Fatah. How much of the old guard is he really?
Prof. TELHAMI: Well, I mean, he's dependent on the old guard. There's no question. I mean, you recall that one reason why he's doing so well right now is not because of his personal popularity, but because he had the backing of Fatah. Had he not had the backing of Fatah organization, he certainly wouldn't be such a leading candidate. Obviously, with Marwan Barghouti out of the election, out of the campaign, he's doing better, but even had Marwan Barghouti entered, with his superior popularity as an individual, it is possible, even likely, that Mr. Abbas would have defeated him by virtue of the institutional support he gets from Fatah. And now that he is sort of facing a decision pertaining to asking Hamas to stop attacks, he needs his Fatah support, and the Fatah organization issued a warning to Hamas. Clearly, he couldn't do it individually. They have to do it institutionally. So one would have to argue that while he clearly is his own man, he has his own ideas, his own style, he's still very much dependent on the institutions of the PLO.
CONAN: And Mustafa Barghouti is running in a credible second place, according to public opinion polls. But most people see the principal rival to the PLO as Hamas. They're boycotting.
Prof. TELHAMI: Yes. And I knew for sure they would boycott from the beginning for multiple reasons. One is they don't want to lose. That would undermine their credibility, and I think they probably would have lost, even despite all of the strikes against Fatah and the PLO. But the other reason is that they really staked their position in relation to rejecting the Oslo agreements, have always rejected the legitimacy of the elections as such, under Israeli occupation. And I think had they won, if they had been lucky and won, they would have been hard-pressed to deliver, because in the end, the only thing they would have put on the table would have been a militant option. They would have been extremely vulnerable to Israel, and also they would have had to change their position completely, which was unlikely, so in that sense, they decided to stay out and presumably assuming that Abu Mazen ultimately will fail, in which case they will be there to pick up the pieces.
CONAN: But does that leave them as the--well, it doesn't seem like loyal opposition is quite the right word.
Prof. TELHAMI: I wouldn't say loyal opposition. I think they're--obviously when we say `Hamas,' we talk as if there's a centralized figure that is making all these decisions. Obviously, it's small groups and individuals who have conflicting interests, and some of them may be satisfied by having local power, which certainly Abu Mazen can help in that regard, but in the end, I think, one cannot see them as loyal, as in the sense of wanting Abu Mazen to succeed. I think they don't believe in his ability to deliver what they want. I think in the end, they're betting that he will fail.
CONAN: Let's get a caller on the line, and Carey's with us from St. Louis.
CAREY (Caller): Hello. Thank you for taking my call. It seems that my question has been answered. I wanted to know if Abbas had the political support, the popular support to do the job. So I guess my next question is, is there anybody in Palestine who has sufficient popular support and political support to negotiate some type of treaty with Israel?
Prof. TELHAMI: Well, in the end, I think that's going to depend on what he can deliver. I think the fact that he starts with a weaker position in public opinion is not really something that is troubling as such, because we know a lot of leaders who come in the shadow of major figures, like Arafat. We've seen Sadat come in the major shadow of Nasser. They ultimately can assert themselves, and they can ultimately garner support among their public, but in the end, the public is going to judge them not by virtue of this election win, which is not entirely contested and, therefore, it isn't going to be as convincing as--unless he wins a huge majority, which is likely in any case, but still, a lot of people will ask questions. In the end, it's going to depend on what he can deliver, what he can get the Israelis to deliver, particularly on the settlement issue in terms of actual evacuation of settlements, and settlements sees relaxation of the roadblocks, and a genuine negotiation between the Israelis and the Palestinians. If he can deliver on those issues, I think the public will warm up to him.
CONAN: Carey, thank you for the call.
CAREY: Thank you.
CONAN: Shibley Telhami, there has been since the death of Yasser Arafat talk of an opening, an opportunity for things to happen, a new Palestinian leadership and perhaps a new relation with Israel. Yet as we've seen so many times in the past, opportunities are overtaken by events, and there has been an increase of violence over the past few days.
Prof. TELHAMI: Well, there's always an opportunity when you have the passing of a major leader. No question. And there is an opportunity now, one cannot underestimate that. But I do think that the challenges are far greater than the promise of this opportunity, in large part because I think the strategic reality remains the same. The reason we have a stalemate is not just that we had Arafat and Sharon and leaders who didn't see eye-to-eye.
There are strategic imperatives and positions that are in place, and I don't see a profound transformation in the Israeli and the Palestinian position, particularly in the position of the Sharon government of not wanting to have a comprehensive deal in any foreseeable future, and in the Palestinian position that badly wants a comprehensive deal in the foreseeable future. That's an issue of conflict. It's going to come to the forefront. It's going to be very hard to see how you get around that, even when you have good intentions. What I see in the short term is that both the Israelis and the US and Arab leaders, in some ways, want to see this as an opportunity. For one thing, they have been saying that the obstacle is Mr. Arafat. He's gone. If he is gone and he was an obstacle, then there is an opportunity.
There are also technical reasons why they would like to create a sense of momentum. For the Bush administration, they want to certainly have some more quiet on the Palestinian-Israeli front because of the Iraq issue. Sharon needs the cooperation of the Palestinians to have an orderly withdrawal from Gaza in implementing his unilateral plan. Now those are all technical reasons. The real question is have there been strategic changes in these positions? I don't see any indication of that to this point.
CONAN: You mentioned Arab neighboring states. They have played an active role in all of this. Tell us about that, because that is seemingly different.
Prof. TELHAMI: Yes. I think there's no question that particularly the states that are neighboring Israel, especially Egypt and Jordan, have played a very important role in creating an appearance of opportunity, for two reasons. The first reason is that they don't want--in this vacuum of power, they don't want Hamas to take over. They both see Hamas as a threat to them, not just to the Palestinian issue and to stability in the region. And so therefore, they are very much interested in the orderly emergence of another PLO leader in the territories. And second, particularly for the Egyptians, they also wanted orderly Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. If there's anarchy in Gaza, they would pay a heavy price. These are all tactical reasons. Clearly, they want an Arab-Israeli peace deal. Beyond that, they would like to believe there is a genuine opportunity to reach an agreement, but in the short term, there's strategic interest to cooperate, regardless.
CONAN: Let's get another caller in. This is Donelle(ph), who's calling from Jacksonville, Florida.
DONELLE (Caller): Hello. Hi, guys. How are you doing?
CONAN: OK.
DONELLE: My question is if Hamas does something like a suicide bombing after Abbas is elected, will the Israelis give him time to take care of the matter or will they just start an immediate incursion, just like they used to do with Arafat, or will they try to let him sort things out and work through the process?
Prof. TELHAMI: Well, there's no question that obviously, Abu Mazen himself has the responsibility, but in the end, his success is going to be dependent on how much leeway the Israelis are going to give him. And we saw already in the campaign where he's trying to do this balancing act between getting legitimacy on the ground, speaking about the right of return, the Israelis being concerned about that, i...
CONAN: His description of Israel as the Zionist enemy.
Prof. TELHAMI: The Zionist enemy, which most likely was a slip of the tongue, because this is not consistent with the language he typically uses. But nonetheless, it's the sort of thing that is likely to happen. And in the end, obviously, it'll also depend on what happens on the ground. If he cannot get Hamas to at least agree to a cease-fire, and the Israelis continue their incursions on the scale that they have been following in the past few months, it's hard to imagine that he will be able to gain public support.
CONAN: Donelle, thanks for the call.
DONELLE: All right. Thank you.
CONAN: And, Shibley Telhami, as always, thank you very much for your time today.
Prof. TELHAMI: My pleasure.
CONAN: Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution as well, and he was with us by phone from his home in Maryland.
Joining us now to debate the importance and impact of this weekend's election is Ziad Asali, the president of the American Task Force on Palestine. He's with us by phone from his office here in Washington. Welcome.
Mr. ZIAD ASALI (American Task Force on Palestine): Thank you.
CONAN: And also with us is Rashid Khalidi, the author of "Resurrecting Empire: Western Footprints and America's Perilous Path in the Middle East." He is he Edward Said, chair of Arab studies at Columbia University, with us by phone from his office in New York, and it's good to have you back on the program.
Professor RASHID KHALIDI (Author, "Resurrecting Empire: Western Footprints and America's Perilous Path in the Middle East"): Thanks for having me.
CONAN: Ziad Asali, how significant do you think this election is?
Mr. ASALI: This election can be very significant if it actually is taken seriously by all the parties concerned. The Palestinian people clearly are showing a great deal of interest. The surveys tell us that 80 percent of the people are inclined to vote this time around, so they need to explore any options. The current front-runner, Mr. Abu Mazen, is risking his entire political career on it, so it's very important for him. The United States has an opportunity to actually bring about any help it can to form a democratic country in Palestine. And the last party, which would be very interested if it chooses to, would be Israel because it will bring peace and stability. The question is how serious Israel will be in making the election feasible, doable and in also doing what it must do in order to make the Palestinian leadership successful.
CONAN: Rashid Khalidi, do you agree?
Prof. KHALIDI: Well, I think that the election is very important in Palestinian internal terms, because it starts a process, a much-needed process, of renewal of the Palestinian leadership, which will be, I think, completed by the municipal and parliamentary elections, which I think in the long term are probably going to be more important for Palestinian politics. I have less faith that it will make any major changes or bring about any major changes in the overall situation. Palestine is under occupation and is going to continue to be under occupation--that is to say the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem--for the foreseeable future irrespective of who is elected on Sunday.
I would hope that the Palestinians will be able to get more of a hearing if they have an elected leadership, but they had an elected leadership from 1996, and there was no change. We're in our 38th year of occupation and we're watching our 38th year of occupation now, and I'm afraid those realities, the realities that most Palestinians can't move from place to place, they can't really campaign or do anything in terms of an election. That's the other ridiculous thing about this election. Nobody can move. Those things won't change after the Sunday vote. Nevertheless, I think it's important for the Palestinians themselves. It's the beginning of a process of renewal of Palestinian politics.
CONAN: We're talking about this weekend's election for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority.
You're listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News.
And let me ask you both about Mahmoud Abbas, Abu Mazen, the likely victor of this weekend's election. He is a longtime associate of Yasser Arafat, yet the two men did not get along when Mr. Abbas was prime minister and Arafat the president. Would we see much change? And you first, Ziad.
Mr. ASALI: Yes. Of course, we have a little bit of a history here. Mr. Abu Mazen was elected or appointed as the prime minister over a year ago, and at the time his policies were clearly calling for negotiations and putting an end to the hostilities. He staked his own future at that time on the support that he was counting on from us here in the United States, from the Israelis and the Palestinians. Everybody let him down, and he went down in flames in the period of 100 days. He finds himself back in a very similar position now. The only thing that has changed for him is that he will be the top leader without Mr. Arafat, who would be his boss. Whether he will have enough authority, after he gets the legitimacy from elections, to do what he can do, whether the other parties will do what they must do to make him succeed, are the very serious questions.
CONAN: And, Rashid Khalidi, the same point, but let me also ask you about his ability to be an effective administrator, something Mr. Arafat was criticized for.
Prof. KHALIDI: Well, Arafat's administration was a ramshackle mess, Yasser Arafat and the whole leadership generation that he represented, and which unfortunately Abu Mazen and many of his colleagues are also a part of, did not have as their strong suit state building or establishing the rule of law. I hope--I don't know if there's any reason for this hope--I hope that Abu Mazen will do a somewhat better job on this. The problem, of course, is gonna be how do you establish the rule of law under a lawless occupation? How do you build a state in a situation where most of the territory is controlled by a foreign power? It's almost an impossible task.
I would hope that he can start off in that direction because it's one of the few things that the Palestinians can do themselves. It does require, as Ziad said, more than just cheerleading from Washington, and more than statements by the Israelis. It requires some very serious changes in the policies of both the United States and Israel, which have determined most outcomes for the past decade and more in this part of the world which are responsible for most of what's happened, in my view, and which I think have a big responsibility.
If the Palestinians come forward with a new leadership which says, `We want to negotiate and here's how we are prepared to proceed,' if there's not a response, then I don't think anybody can blame the Palestinians for whatever then follows. They will have shown good faith. They will have elected a new leadership. They will have done whatever was asked of them in terms of renewal and reform, and if there is not the response that we all hope for in terms of a real end to the occupation and end to the settlements and negotiated peace between the Palestinian and Israeli peoples, at least this time it won't be the fault of the Palestinians.
CONAN: We're gonna ask both of you to stay with us. We're about to take a short break, and when we come back we're gonna take more of your calls on the future of the prospects for Palestinian democracy and the impact of this weekend's election for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority. Our number is (800) 989-8255. That's (800) 989-TALK. The e-mail address is totn@npr.org.
We'll also be talking about a very rare moment in the United States Congress today as the results of the Electoral College vote were presented to a joint meeting of the House of Representatives and the US Senate. Democrats objected and the House and Senate retired to their respective chambers to debate the election results and the fairness of the elections. More on that after the break. I'm Neal Conan. You're listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
CONAN: This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington. Here are the headlines from a couple of the stories NPR News is following this afternoon. World leaders gathered today in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, for an emergency summit on aid needs in tsunami-ravaged areas. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the United States will help in every way as countries recover from the disaster. And confirmation hearings are under way for President Bush's nominee for attorney general. Senate Democrats have accused Alberto Gonzales of justifying White House policies that led to the mistreatment of terror suspects. Details on those stories coming up later today on "All Things Considered" from NPR News.
Tomorrow it's "Science Friday." Ira Flatow will be here with a look at efforts to treat Parkinson's disease using stem cells, plus protecting the planet from space-borne threats and a deliberate collision course with a comet. That's tomorrow on TALK OF THE NATION/"Science Friday."
Today we're talking about the impact of this weekend's elections for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority. Our guests are Ziad Asali, the president of the American Task Force on Palestine, and Rashid Khalidi, the author of "Resurrecting Empire: Western Footprints and America's Perilous Path in the Middle East," and the Edward Said Chair of Arab Studies at Columbia University.
Let's get a caller back in on the conversation, and this is Sharif(ph), who joins us from Cambridge, Massachusetts.
SHARIF (Caller): Yes. Thank you for taking my call.
CONAN: Sure.
SHARIF: What hasn't been covered here is the distinct preference shown by the United Kingdom and the United States for Mr. Abu Mazen. Prime Minister Tony Blair said that he would host a peace conference, but only if Mr. Abu Mazen were elected. The United States gave the Palestinian Authority some $23 million, and the PA only covers Mr. Abbas' campaigns with a result that many Palestinians don't even know that Mr. Barghouti is running. This has all the markings of a rigged election, which would place Mr. Abbas in a very difficult position, because if he's seen as a puppet of the United States and the United Kingdom, his standing among the Palestinians would be reduced, and his ability to function as a prime minister would be diminished, with the result that a scenario would be played whereby Israel, the United States and the UK can say, `Well, of course, what did you expect? We didn't have--we didn't think the Palestinians could pull it off.' So this has all the markings of a rigged election. And this...
CONAN: Well, let...
SHARIF: ...is also reinforced by other things, such as, for example, the Israelis having beaten Mr. Barghouti, and allowed Mr. Abbas much freer access than they have allowed Mr. Barghouti ...(unintelligible).
CONAN: Well, let's get a response on this, the association with the US and Britain, from--Rashid Khalidi, why don't you go first?
Prof. KHALIDI: Well, I think that the caller is right in many respects. Another very unseemly thing, in my view, was the call by Secretary of State Powell for another candidate, Marwan Barghouti, not Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, who is still running, but Marwan Barghouti, who is in prison, to step down. The fact that the United States and others saw fit in this way and in other ways to interfere in this election, in my view, is unseemly. I don't think anybody should interfere in anybody's elections. It's improper for Germans or Peruvians to say anything about American electoral politics, and it's improper for Americans to say anything or do anything about Palestinian electoral politics.
And I think that more serious than this, frankly, have been the enormous restrictions on Palestinian candidates and on Palestinian voters imposed by Israel. It makes it very, very difficult to campaign if you can't move, if candidates are afraid of being arrested, as some candidates were in the municipal elections a couple weeks ago by the Israeli occupation forces. So I think that these things cast a shadow over these elections. I don't think that in the end, though, they should be taken as meaning that this is not an important exercise. I think in terms of Palestinian internal politics, it's important, and I stress myself the municipal and legislative elections, which I think will begin the process of producing a new leadership, a new generation of Palestinian leadership.
CONAN: Ziad?
Mr. ASALI: Yes. I think I agree with several of the points that have been mentioned. I think it is important to note, however, that the Palestinian people have a chance to vote. They do have a chance to hear about such images that are being built about somebody being--about their elections being rigged, etc., etc. It is up to them to vote at the end of the day for Barghouti or for Abu Mazen or anybody else. There is no authority. There is no authority in Palestine that restricts their access to information, and the only restriction about--that they live about is the consequence of occupation in all its very many ways of interfering with mobility and--etc., etc. That equally applies to everyone.
I rather suspect that the Palestinian people by the polls that we are watching, rather than by the rigging of the elections, as has been alleged by the caller, have given at least 50 percent to 60 percent support, as far as we can tell, to Abu Mazen. That's way beyond his base. In fact--so that means that there is a silent majority that seems to like his message.
CONAN: Sharif, thank you very much for the question. We appreciate it.
SHARIF: Thank you for having me.
CONAN: And we'd like to thank both of our guests for taking the time to speak with us today. The last gentleman you just heard, Ziad Asali, president of the American Task Force on Palestine, with us by phone from his office here in Washington.
Thanks very much.
Mr. ASALI: Thank you.
CONAN: And Rashid Khalidi, the Edward Said Chair of Arab Studies at Columbia University, with us by phone from his office in New York.
Thank you, as always.
Prof. KHALIDI: A pleasure, as always.
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