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Analysis: Ariel Sharon accepts `road map' for peace; questions remain about what happens next
Weekend Edition Saturday: May 24, 2003
 Sharon Accepts Mideast Peace 'Road Map'
SCOTT SIMON, host:
This is WEEKEND EDITION from NPR News. I'm Scott Simon.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will ask his Cabinet tomorrow to accept the `road map' for peace, a three-stage plan for a Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel, but he is expected to encounter tough resistance. Mr. Sharon announced he would accept the `road map' only after the Bush administration pledged that Israel's reservations would be given serious consideration. The move was greeted by Palestinians as a positive step, but questions persist about what happens next. NPR's Peter Kenyon is in Jerusalem.
Peter, thanks for being with us.
PETER KENYON reporting:
Hi, Scott.
SIMON: And describe to us, please, some of the suspicions that members of Mr. Sharon's Cabinet have and how he might try to allay them.
KENYON: Well, you're right. There are some very deep suspicions, and the people I've been talking to, analysts and officials, are saying Sharon wouldn't have made his announcement yesterday if he hadn't done some work preparing the Cabinet. However, that being said, it's going to be anything but an easy battle. He will be trading heavily on his personal relationship with President Bush tomorrow, and he'll need to. His own party, the Likud, is on record opposing a Palestinian state, period, and two of the other coalition partners, the National Union and National Religious Parties, take even harder lines.
It'll be a bruising debate, people say, because right-wing Cabinet members are well aware that the State Department yesterday said there are no changes necessary in the `road' map to accommodate the Israeli reservations. I think it looks like the tactic of the new Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to refuse to do anything until Israel accepts the `road map' appears to be working.
SIMON: If the Cabinet does wind up accepting the `road map,' narrow vote or whatever, that will begin phase one. The Palestinians have to begin to deal with that, and that calls on them to take what are described as decisive steps against armed factions like Hamas.
KENYON: Well, that's right. It could be a case of be careful what you wish for. If they do get this Israeli acceptance, we're going to see a very difficult prospect for Mahmoud Abbas and his security chief Mohammed Dalhan. I was just in Gaza where Abbas was meeting with Hamas leaders. They came out saying they might halt attacks against Israeli civilians. Hours later, a Hamas bomb blew up alongside a bus full of Jewish settlers in the Gaza Strip, claimed by Hamas, dramatically underlining the fact that they don't consider settlers to be civilians. There's been the six suicide bombings we've all heard about, the intercept of an arms shipment that may have been bound for the Palestinians, and the army's continuing its incursions, home demolitions. Today they're in the West Bank city of Tulkarem. If Israeli acceptance means immediate moves by Abbas and his security chief Mohammad Dalhan, the timing could be very tricky.
SIMON: And on the Israeli side they would have to freeze settlement activity and withdraw to the positions of September, 2000, so that would be a considerable change for them, too.
KENYON: That's right. But again, we come to the ever-present phrase in Middle East politics `yes, but.' The timing is extremely problematic on the Israeli side as well. Analysts are saying Prime Minister Sharon may well get a general acceptance of the `road map' through his Cabinet, but any serious concessions on settlements will run into extremely heavy opposition. The State Department is working on teams of coordinators. There may be meetings with President Bush. Clearly US engagement is critical, but the question right now is just how deeply the White House wants to wade into Middle East politics.
SIMON: Thanks very much, Peter Kenyon, in Jerusalem.
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