Now that the Super Bowl is over, and pitchers and catchers are still days away from reporting, there's obviously only one thing left for you to do.

Solve this week's ScuttleButton puzzle.

Every Monday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show (by me) and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

L.B.J., Please Stay! — Some were upset when President Lyndon Johnson announced on March 31, 1968 that he would not seek re-election that year.

black and white hands holding up a dove — A Vietnam peace button, circa 1969.

D Huddleston U.S. Senate — Ah, yes, one of ScuttleButton's old standbys. Walter "Dee" Huddleston, a Kentucky Democrat, served two terms in the Senate until losing in 1984 to Mitch McConnell.

America Works Best When We Say Union Yes — Labor button put out by the IUE (International Union of Electronic, Electrical, Salaried, Machine and Furniture Workers).

So, when you combine Stay + Dove + D + Union, you just very well may get ...

State of the Union. The President's annual address to Congress.

The winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Jack Davis of Columbus, Ohio. Jack gets a TOTN t-shirt.

Mitt Romney's landslide win in Saturday's Nevada caucuses — which followed his big victory the previous Tuesday in Florida — has reestablished him as the odds-on favorite for the Republican presidential nomination.

Romney took 50 percent of the Nevada vote, a shade under what he got when he won the caucuses four years ago. Now, like then, he was buttressed by the solid support of Mormons, who count for more than a quarter of the GOP electorate in Nevada. Newt Gingrich was well behind with 21 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 19 percent — up from his 14 percent from 2008 — and Rick Santorum with 10 percent.

Romney still has a long way to go in trying to convince Tea Party folks and evangelical conservatives he is the right choice to take on President Obama in the general election. But by the looks of things, February is going to give him a gigantic boost towards that goal.

The campaign now moves to three other caucus states: Colorado and Minnesota, which hold their contests on Tuesday (Feb. 7), and Maine, where the caucuses started on Saturday and lasts a full week. Paul is making a serious effort in Maine, and some think he could finish on top. But Romney carried all three states in 2008, and he has to be the betting favorite to repeat. There's also a non-binding primary Tuesday in Missouri. This will have no bearing on the Show Me State's GOP delegates, which will be decided in a caucus next month. But with Gingrich not on the ballot there — he failed to meet the requirements — Santorum is campaigning there as if it's important, arguing he, and only he, is the conservative alternative to Romney. (Gingrich also failed to make the ballot in Virginia, which votes on March 6.)

But why not tout successes in these states, small as they are? The next couple of weeks is less about real delegates and more about headlines and perceived momentum. Since the botched reporting of the Iowa results robbed him of claiming victory and the news coverage that comes with it, Santorum has not been much of a factor anywhere else. Even with the endorsement of Sharron Angle, a Tea Party favorite and the 2010 GOP challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Santorum finished a poor fourth in Nevada. A strong showing even in beauty contest Missouri might give his campaign some temporary bragging rights.

The bad news for Gingrich, Paul and Santorum is that, if they are shut out from victory in this week's caucuses, there will not be a lot of opportunities to make news this month. Everything at stake on Tuesday, at least as of now, look to be heading Romney's way.

The calendar only gets worse. February may be the shortest month but, for Romney's opponents, it might feel the longest. After this week, there will no primaries for another 21 days, and they too may be Romney states. On Feb. 28, both Arizona, which has a significant number of Mormons, and Michigan, where Romney was born and where his father served as governor in the 1960s, are holding primaries. Romney is the clear favorite to repeat his 2008 victory in the Michigan primary, and he leads in Arizona. And there is no debate until Feb. 22.

And speaking of endorsements, did the Romney camp really boast the backing he got from Donald Trump, or was that just something the DNC made up? I know the purpose of announcing endorsements is to show momentum and expanding support, but I've always felt they are overrated; I always point to Al Gore and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin endorsing Howard Dean right before the 2004 Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and Dean, once the frontrunner there, finished a weak third. This year, Romney had Gov. Nikki Haley in his corner in South Carolina and he got creamed. Gingrich had the New Hampshire Union Leader and he finished a weak fourth.

But the recent slew of announced endorsements struck me as odd, if not surreal. And it's not just Trump and Romney (and the egg on the face of the Gingrich campaign, which expected the backing of The Donald). There's more, and I'm not sure I understand it. Herman Cain, forced out of the presidential race for his alleged harassment of women, backing Gingrich, he of the two divorces and "open marriage" fame? What was that about? Or the endorsement Gingrich got from ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.), who is still in prison for accepting bribes? Can't make this stuff up.

Evacuation in North Carolina. Four years ago, Democrats had great success in North Carolina. Buoyed by a huge African-American turnout, Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 — and only the second since LBJ — to carry the state. Kay Hagan ousted GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue took the governorship, the first woman of her state to do so. Democrats maintained their hold on the state legislature.

As it turned out, 2008 was a lifetime ago.

Perdue proved to be quite unpopular, and Republicans took advantage; two years ago, they won both houses of the state legislature for the first time since 1870. With fundraising as weak as her poll numbers, and ethics questions being asked regarding her campaign finances — some of her staffers from the 2008 campaign have been indicted — Perdue announced on Jan. 26 she wouldn't seek re-election. She cited the lack of bipartisanship and the state's "divisive environment."

Her decision was followed by a few days later with the news that Rep. Heath Shuler (D), a Blue Dog favorite from the western part of the state who challenged Nancy Pelosi for Democratic leader last year, announced that unfavorable redistricting — the liberal bastion of Asheville was carved out of his seat — forced him to retire as well. He said he would not enter the race for governor either, a sentiment shared by Erskine Bowles. Bowles, who was President Clinton's chief of staff and co-chair of President Obama's Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, seemed to be every Democrat's favorite to succeed Perdue. The truth is, Bowles is not the world's greatest campaigner, and would have come into the race as having lost two Senate contests (2002 vs. Dole and 2004 vs. Richard Burr). But he announced on Thursday he won't run.

That leaves, for now, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Bill Faison in the Democratic contest to take on Pat McCrory, the former mayor of Charlotte and the GOP nominee against Perdue four years ago. But that list may not be complete. Rep. Brad Miller, another Democratic victim of redistricting who decided not to run again rather than face fellow Dem David Price in the primary, is a potential gubernatorial candidate, and Bob Etheridge, who lost his House seat in 2010, has entered the race. Miller could prove to be a strong contender should he run.

Democrats insist they are better off without Perdue in the race. That may be true or it may be spin; the political terrain there looks much less favorable for the party than it did four years ago. But it's probably accurate to say that Perdue on the ballot would not have been welcome news for the Obama team in their (currently uphill) quest to carry the state a second time. The Democrats will meet in Charlotte late this summer to renominate the president.

Democrats Retain Oregon 01. In the Jan. 31 special election, former state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici (D) won the vacant House seat in Oregon's 1st Congressional District with a convincing win over Republican Rob Cornilles. This was for the seat formerly held by David Wu, a Democrat who was always on the watch list because of his various eccentricities but whose situation became untenable when he was accused of sexual assault; he resigned in August.

The seat has long been held by the Democrats; the last GOP victory came in 1972, and Obama carried the district four years ago by 25 points. But mindful of what happened to the seat of another Democrat (Anthony Weiner) in a solidly Democratic area who resigned because of a sex scandal — Republicans shockingly won the special election in that one — Democrats poured in a ton of money on behalf of Bonamici, effectively labeling Cornilles as a Tea Party extremist. Bonamici won, 54-39%.

That leaves just one unfilled House seat, the one vacated last month by Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.). The special primary to succeed Giffords will be held April 17 and the general is June 12.

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin.

Super Bowl results. Just in case you missed last night's game, I thought I would offer up this button. Oh my, what a wonderful game, and what a tense ending. And that Manningham catch. Wow.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. Last week's show focused on the caucuses in Maine and Nevada, with respective special guests Jay Field of Maine Public Broadcasting and Steve Sebelius from the Las Vegas Review-Journal. There was also an interview with Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire about same sex marriage in the state. The surprise highlight was Roger McGuinn, formerly the lead singer of The Byrds, singing "I Wanna Grow Up To Be A Politician" especially for the fans of the Junkie segment. You can listen to all of that right here:

Also: a belated thank you to the folks at member station WMFE in Orlando, Fla., where we broadcast the Jan. 25 Junkie edition in advance of the Florida primary. And you can hear that show here:

(Later that evening, Neal and I performed the Political Junkie "roadshow" at the Plaza Theatre in Orlando before a live audience.)

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every Monday. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt!

Previous winner: Gary McAtee of Chickasha, Okla.

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. You can listen to the latest episode here:

ON THE CALENDAR:

Feb. 4-11 — Maine caucus.

Feb. 7 — Caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota. Also: Missouri primary (beauty contest only).

Feb. 22 — GOP debate, Mesa, Ariz. (CNN, 8 pm ET).

Feb. 28 — Primaries in Arizona and Michigan.

March 1 — GOP debate, Atlanta, Ga. (CNN, 8 pm ET).

March 3 — Washington caucus.

March 5 — GOP debate, Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif. (NBC).

March 6 — SUPER TUESDAY. Primaries in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. Caucuses in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in campaign history: Washington Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson declares his candidacy for the 1976 Democratic presidential nomination. A defense hawk and a social liberal popular with organized labor, Jackson also sought the nomination in 1972. But he enters the '76 contest in a much better position, with more money on hand than any other prospective Democrat other than George Wallace. Jackson is the fourth Democrat to officially announce, following Rep. Mo Udall (Ariz.), former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and ex-Sen. Fred Harris (Okla.) (Feb. 6, 1975).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

I've been on the road for much of the last two weeks — a visit to Oklahoma on behalf of NPR's StateImpact project, a visit to member station KPCC in Pasadena, Calif., and then a trip to Orlando and member station WMFE, where we broadcast the Talk of the Nation Junkie segment in advance of the Florida primary and performed a Political Junkie "roadshow" before a live audience of some 800 fellow junkies later that evening.

In that time, regrettably, there was no time to write the Political Junkie column, which returns next week. But now that I'm back to sanity — assuming that is an accurate way to describe Washington, D.C. — there IS time for a new ScuttleButton puzzle.

It's been awhile, and hopefully you haven't forgotten how to play. Every Monday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to the most recent puzzle:

Column E/Save Hudson County — From a local New Jersey ballot initiative, probably circa 1970s.

Retain Lyman Probate Court Clerk — This button of late 1930s vintage refers to Frank Lyman of Chicago.

green button with the letters ING — This clever button is from Alaska Sen. Ernest Gruening (pronounced GREEN-ing), who was defeated in the 1968 Democratic primary by Mike Gravel.

So, when you combine E + Lyman + Ing, you just very well may get ...

Eli Manning. The quarterback of the New York Giants who is taking his team to the Super Bowl following upsets of the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs.

Did I ever tell you I love the Giants?

But enough about me. The ScuttleButton winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Gary McAtee of Chickasha, Okla. Gary gets a TOTN t-shirt.

Iowa claimed Michele Bachmann. New Hampshire claimed Jon Huntsman.

Eventually, the number of Republican candidates are going to dwindle down to one. And rather than wait for that to happen, this might be a good time to try your luck by solving this week's ScuttleButton puzzle.

Here's how to play. Every week on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

Elect a Neu Lt. Governor — Arthur Neu, an Iowa Republican, was first elected in the mid 1970s.

Ham's My Man — Hamilton Fish was elected to an upstate congressional seat in 1968. The New York Republican later served on the House Judiciary Committee during the Nixon impeachment hearings.

Rocky S.U.R.E. — One thing I AM sure about is that this button is from one of the campaigns of New York GOP Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, who was elected four times between 1958 and 1970.

New York's Prime Candidate/Bob Wagner — Wagner, a former mayor of NYC, attempted a comeback in 1969 but lost the Democratic primary to City Comptroller Mario Procaccino.

Mary Mochary U.S. Senate — She was the Republican nominee against Sen. Bill Bradley (D-N.J.) in 1984.

So, when you combine Neu + Ham + S.U.R.E. + Prime + Mary, you just very well may get ...

New Hampshire Primary. And let the record show that the last three presidents — Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama — all lost the primary en route to winning the White House.

But enough about losing. The ScuttleButton winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Annette Hernandez of San Francisco, Calif. Annette gets a TOTN t-shirt.

The battle for the Republican presidential nomination may or may not be decided by the end of this month. The battle for control of the Senate, on the other hand, is likely to go on all the way until the final votes are cast in November.

The numbers suggest a good year for the GOP. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 are currently held by Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Only ten are held by Republicans. With Democrats currently holding a 53-47 advantage, the GOP would need four seats to take control — or three, if they win the White House (and the VP would break a 50-50 tie).

Further hurting the Democratic cause is the number of retirements they have this year. Seven, including independent Joe Lieberman, are not seeking re-election, compared to just two on the Republican side.

But there are invariables that cloud the forecasting game this early in the cycle, such as the ever-changing presidential race, not to mention upcoming filing deadlines and primary contests.

In the months ahead, I'll be focusing on each key Senate race in depth. But for now, here is a first look at where the contests stand.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC (9): California (Dianne Feinstein), Delaware (Tom Carper), Maryland (Ben Cardin), Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar), New Jersey (Bob Menendez), New York (Kirsten Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse), Vermont (Bernie Sanders (I)), West Virginia (Joe Manchin).

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (5): Connecticut (open seat — Joe Lieberman (I) retiring), Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), Washington (Maria Cantwell).

TOSSUP DEM SEATS (7): Florida (Bill Nelson), Hawaii (open seat — Daniel Akaka retiring), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), New Mexico (open seat — Jeff Bingaman retiring), Virginia (open seat — Jim Webb retiring), Wisconsin (open seat — Herb Kohl retiring).

EXPECTED DEM LOSSES/GOP PICKUPS (2): Nebraska (open seat — Ben Nelson retiring), North Dakota (open seat — Kent Conrad retiring).

EXPECTED GOP LOSSES/DEM PICKUPS (O): None at the moment.

TOSSUP GOP SEATS (1): Massachusetts (Scott Brown).

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (4): Arizona (open seat — Jon Kyl retiring), Indiana (Dick Lugar), Maine (Olympia Snowe), Nevada (Dean Heller) .

SAFE REPUBLICAN (5): Mississippi (Roger Wicker), Tennessee (Bob Corker), Texas (open seat — Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring), Utah (Orrin Hatch), Wyoming (John Barrasso).

I came, I saw, I Concord. It was great being part of live coverage all primary night from New Hampshire Public Radio. Hosted from 7-10 by the legendary Laura Knoy and then for a one hour recap at 11 by Brady Carlson, the special broadcast featured super guests and top notch analysis. Thanks to everyone for their wonderful comments. And thanks to NHPR for a job well done.

Huntsman out. There was a less-than-convincing ring to Jon Huntsman's declaration the night of New Hampshire that the third-place primary finish gave him a "ticket to ride." As it turns out, it was more of a "I don't want to spoil the party so I'll go." On Saturday, he ended his campaign and endorsed Romney.

There is never a shortage of spin in these things, and New Hampshire is well known for it. The best case for claiming a win coming out of a Granite State defeat was Bill Clinton's self-described "comeback kid" label in 1992. But Huntsman's hope that finishing third, with 16.7% of the vote, was a huge success after he put all his marbles in the state rang hollow.

The move reduces the GOP field but not the way evangelical leaders wanted. While there is some desire to rally 'round Rick Santorum, that sentiment is by no means unanimous among the "Anybody but Mitt" folks, and Newt Gingrich's Monday night debate performance further gave pause that this has become a two-man race. And don't forget Ron Paul, who may have taken a hammering in the Myrtle Beach debate but who will still be very much part of the mix following South Carolina and Florida.

Shakeup in the California House delegation. Last week we reported on the decision of Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.), in Congress since 1987, to retire, a victim of a new redistricting map. Since then, two more Golden State Republicans have thrown in the towel. Rep. Wally Herger, also in Congress 25 years, said he would leave as well. And now Rep. Jerry Lewis, first elected in 1978, is also calling it quits. His district was carved up into two districts. One of them, the new 31st CD, is where Rep. Gary Miller (R) earlier said he would run rather than face off against Rep. Ed Royce (R) in a GOP primary. Still watching on another veteran Republican, Rep. David Dreier, to see what he plans to do. Three California Democrats are also leaving: Dennis Cardoza and Lynn Woolsey are retiring, and Bob Filner is running for mayor of San Diego.

Janklow is dead. Former Gov. Bill Janklow, one of the most powerful and influential pols in South Dakota history, died Thursday, Jan. 12. His was, by all accounts, a larger-than-life figure, a Republican whom you loved or hated. Charming and intimidating. But everyone agreed he was one of a kind.

He was elected state attorney general in 1974, and four years later was elected governor — the first of four terms. In 1986, term-limited as governor and with no obvious options, he took on fellow Republican Sen. Jim Abdnor in the primary, but lost by ten points. George Mickelson, the Republican who succeeded him as governor, died in a plane crash in 1993.. Janklow challenged his successor, Walter Miller, and beat him convincingly in the 1994 GOP primary and served two more terms.

As governor, he boosted the state economy by luring businesses to South Dakota and helped make major advances in schools and transportation. The voters rewarded him with landslide victories each time he ran.

Once again constitutionally barred from serving as governor again, he ran for the state's lone House seat in 2002, the seat vacated by John Thune. In that contest, he clobbered former Sen. Larry Pressler by nearly 28 points in the GOP primary and defeated the Democratic candidate, Stephanie Herseth, in the general election. But his House tenure would prove to be brief. In 2003, Janklow, known for driving well beyond the speed limit, ran a stop sign and killed a motorcyclist. After his conviction, he resigned his seat.

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Meanwhile, time for one question from the mailbag:

Q: What do you think the chances are of a brokered convention for the Republicans? Mitt Romney is the leading candidate but he's coming nowhere close to winning a majority of the votes, let alone the hearts, of conservatives. Could another candidate get in the race at this date? — Andrea Johnston, Charleston, S.C.

A: The short answer is between none and none. "Brokered conventions" — in which no presidential candidate has a commanding lead going into the summer national party conventions and delegate bargaining is what produces the nominee — hasn't happened in any convention in more than a half century (Democrats 1952, Republicans 1948). No Republican contest has even reached a convention with any doubt since 1976, when Ronald Reagan challenged President Gerald Ford. And while ostensibly the GOP rules have changed this year to allow more proportional awarding of delegates in the primaries (as opposed to previous years' "winner-take-all"), it's hard to see Romney having as many opponents after the South Carolina (Jan. 21) and Florida (Jan. 31) primaries as he has now. That doesn't necessarily mean conservatives will suddenly fall in love with him. But unless they can win somewhere, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are going to run out of money and arguments. Even the "super PACs" will come to realize that.

As far as another candidate getting in, I hate saying it's impossible. Let's just leave it as highly unlikeable. Who would be this dream candidate? Jeb Bush remains the strongest "if only" candidate, but he's not running. And while Sarah Palin likes to appear every now and then so we won't forget her, she's not going to run either.

Once upon a time, it was doable. Bobby Kennedy didn't get into the race until after the New Hampshire primary, in 1968. But that's when the process was totally different than it is today.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. I was at the studios of New Hampshire Public Radio in Concord last week, where Junkie was broken into two parts. The first segment focused on the results in New Hampshire and what's next as the candidates head into South Carolina, and it included special guest Bob Inglis, the former Republican congressman from S.C. You can listen to it right here:

The second segment featured New York Times columnist Bill Keller and focused on his recent piece suggesting that President Obama would be better off if he had Hillary Clinton — not Joe Biden — as his running mate in 2012. That segment, and my response that the idea is nothing if not preposterous, can be heard here:

Come see the Political Junkie/TOTN road show! We're bringing the program to Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 25. Later that evening, a special 90-minute presentation before a live audience. And it's free! Click here for details.

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every Monday. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt!

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. You can listen to the latest episode here:

ON THE CALENDAR:

Jan. 19 — GOP debate, Charleston, S.C. (CNN, 8 pm ET).

Jan. 21 — SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY.

Jan. 23 — GOP debate, Tampa, Fla. (NBC).

Jan. 24 — President Obama's State of the Union address to Congress.

Jan. 25 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Orlando, Fla.

Jan. 26 — GOP debate, Jacksonville, Fla. (CNN).

Jan. 31 — FLORIDA PRIMARY.

Jan. 31 — Special congressional election in Oregon's 1st CD to succeed former Rep. David Wu (D), who resigned amid a sex scandal. Candidates: Suzanne Bonamici (D) and Rob Cornilles (R).

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in campaign history: Minnesota Sen. Walter Mondale becomes the first Democrat to announce the creation of an exploratory committee regarding a possible bid for the 1976 presidential nomination. His goal is to raise enough money to allow him to travel around the country and meet with potential supporters (Jan. 17, 1974).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

There was a lot of talk about God and religion during last week's Republican caucuses in Iowa.

Then came the miraculous victory Sunday in the playoffs by the Denver Broncos and their quarterback, Tim Tebow.

There are no coincidences when it comes to politics, sports and religion.

And that brings us to this week's ScuttleButton puzzle. Not everyone will agree about the above three subjects. But they will agree that ScuttleButton is America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle. I mean, seriously, how much time must you waste on Sudoku?

But, in the immortal words of Rod Blagojevich, if you want to play, you need to know the rules.

Each Monday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

Teen-Age Republican/TARS — GOP button circa late 1960s.

It's Kerr/Yes Sir! — Robert Kerr, an Oklahoma senator, sought the Democratic nomination for president in 1952.

Taylor for Governor — Pat Taylor lost the Democratic runoff for governor of North Carolina in 1972.

Support Our Soldiers (map of South Vietnam) — A button in support of U.S. policy in Vietnam, made by American Patriots for Freedom, circa 1967.

PIE/Pat Is Electable — Pat Buchanan sought the presidency as the candidate of the Reform Party in 2000.

So, when you combine Teen + Kerr + Taylor + Soldiers + Pie, you kinda get ...

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The John le Carre spy novel that has become a new film starring Gary Oldman and Colin Firth.

And the winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Brad Bergman of Apple Valley, Calif. Brad gets a TOTN t-shirt.

A handful of new polls are out, all of which have Mitt Romney ahead in the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary by varying margins.

(Click here for details on CNN/Time magazine, Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen polls.)

Since 1980, every Republican who won South Carolina has gone on to win the nomination. Given that, with Romney having won the Iowa caucuses (by a whopping eight-vote margin) and expected to take New Hampshire on Tuesday in lopsided fashion, the question naturally is:

Is it over?

Let's hold off on the coronation a bit longer. But here's what we do know.

With Romney winning in Iowa, the big story was probably who finished second — because the "Anybody But Romney" faction is looking to rally behind an alternative. That was Rick Santorum, who had been struggling to gain traction (and media exposure) for months. The former Pennsylvania senator was never the "frontrunner of the week," never the focus of attention in any of the debates, never pulled in any noticeable money. In fact, until late polling by CNN and the Des Moines Register showed him with momentum, I don't believe anyone gave him a second thought. While everyone — Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich — was having his or her day in the sun, Santorum was under the radar, out visiting all 99 counties, getting little airtime or ink in the process. So to come within eight votes of the lead was pretty astounding.

As to what to make of Romney's caucus numbers, I'm still not sure. He got (slightly) more votes and a (slightly) lower percentage than he received in Iowa four years ago. Remember, he's been running ever since. And his total of 24.6 percent is now the lowest for any Iowa winner ever; Bob Dole had that ignominious record with a 25 percent finish in 1996.

(And, speaking of numbers, I completely expected the GOP turnout in Iowa to dwarf the participation totals from four years ago, when party morale was down in the dumps in the wake of an unpopular President Bush, a frustrating no-win war in Iraq, and a collapsing economy. But the 2012 turnout, in a year where Republicans were ecstatic at the thought of ousting President Obama, was perhaps only a thousand or two voters better than four years ago.)

Here's what did happen. Both Perry and Gingrich, who once posed the greatest threat to Romney's nomination, were beaten up in Iowa. Perry finished a miserable fifth, with 10% of the vote, and his decision to go back to Texas to reassess only confirmed that the end was near for him; South Carolina may be his Alamo.

Gingrich's numbers were only marginally better — 13 percent, good for fourth place — but he was the target of an intense negative campaign, focusing on his personal foibles as much as anything. Even if Bachmann is gone and Perry nearly inconsequential, Gingrich now has to worry about the rise of Santorum. A unified conservative opposition to Romney, which was nowhere to be found in the caucuses and won't happen in New Hampshire, is unlikely to materialize in time for South Carolina on the 21st. This is great news for the former Massachusetts governor, who is more likely than ever to win his party's nomination but is still struggling to win over the hearts and minds of the voters.

Nor should we forget the showing of Ron Paul, who finished a very close third, with 21 percent in Iowa. He is not going away, and why should he? His supporters are more committed than ever, and his organization has promised a full assault on other caucus states ... akin to Obama's strategy against Hillary Clinton in 2008. Four years ago, when he had far less support than he does now, he lasted as a candidate until mid-June.

By winning in Iowa and looking strong in New Hampshire, Romney has an opportunity to do what no non-incumbent Republican has ever done in presidential politics: take the first two contests of the nominating process. Reagan couldn't do it, nor could Dole, McCain or either Bush. And if the polls in South Carolina hold up, a race that some were hoping that could go all the way to the convention — or at least the latter months of spring — could be over before you know it.

But let's not leave New Hampshire just yet. Romney himself had the state all but won four years ago, but as his lead evaporated in Iowa, he found himself passed in the primary by McCain. His current lead in the N.H. polls is so large that many say he will be hard-pressed to manage expectations. And that's the big danger for him. There is no John McCain running this year, no Republican who attracts the kind of independents that could imperil Romney's lead. But there is Jon Huntsman, who bypassed Iowa and is betting the ranch on this primary, insisting that he's the kind of candidate the rugged individualists of New Hampshire want. Huntsman is trying to emulate McCain's strategy of starting out in N.H., which twice worked for the Arizonan, in 2000 and 2008. Others, of course, also tried that, notably Democrats Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman, but neither got anywhere. (Lieberman exited the race a week later.)

Heading into New Hampshire, Santorum and the other strong social conservatives will find it a different terrain than Iowa. Both Pat Robertson, a strong second-place finisher in the 1988 caucuses, and Mike Huckabee, the 2008 winner, went into the Granite State a week or so later and got clobbered. It's a totally different electorate. At the same time, however, Pat Buchanan, no shrinking violet when it comes to social conservative politics, used a strong Iowa finish to win in New Hampshire in 1996.

Still, Santorum's past will now get put under the microscope, including the money he made since losing his 2006 Senate re-election race in Pennsylvania and some of the more incendiary and outlandish comments he's made about subjects such as homosexuality. He may in the end wish he were still the anonymous candidate he was in Iowa.

The history of New Hampshire primaries has long been filled with interpretation and spin. Both Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and Ed Muskie in 1972 won the Democratic primaries there, but both were considered "losers" because they performed worse than anticipated, and the respective second-place finishers Eugene McCarthy and George McGovern came away as "winners." Bill Clinton, who finished second to Paul Tsongas in 1992, somehow wound up as the "winner," thanks to his "Comeback Kid" spin that became conventional wisdom.

But it's going to be hard to dismiss or diminish Romney, conventional wisdom or otherwise, if he follows his Iowa win with a victory on Tuesday. And if he builds on that in a South Carolina win, then it may really be "over."

Live from New Hampshire! I'll be part of the live special broadcast of the primary coming to you from New Hampshire Public Radio, from 7-10 pm Eastern time, followed by a recap from 11-midnight. Click here for details.

What next for Michele Bachmann? The Minnesota congresswoman dropped out of the presidential race on Wednesday, the day after a 6th place finish in Iowa, with 5 percent of the vote. Now the guessing game is what she plans to do next. She could seek a fourth term in the House, where she has a somewhat comfortable Republican district north and east of the Twin Cities but one that might change due to redistricting. Either way, she is a clear Democratic target; she barely survived in both 2006 and 2008, though won more comfortably in 2010. She was turned down by House GOP leaders last year when she sought a leadership role, but as chair of the House Tea Party Caucus they might throw her a few crumbs. Her constant refrain during the caucuses that she is an Iowan — she was born in Waterloo — is certain to be brought up again by her opponents in Minnesota. Some muse that she might even be looking at a challenge to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), but that seems quite unlikely as Klobuchar's numbers remain strong for 2012.

But she could also decide to retire, make a ton of money — a Fox News correspondent perhaps? — and then decide whether to rejoin the political fray. Aaron Blake of the Washington Post also suggests she might have designs on Al Franken's (D) Senate seat in 2014.

If she does decide to leave her House seat, one Republican whose name has been constantly mentioned as a potential successor is Tom Emmer, the party's gubernatorial nominee in 2010. But if she runs again, there's not likely to be a serious intra-party challenge.

Iowa or New Hampshire? Winning the New Hampshire primary doesn't always guarantee you the nomination. But until Bill Clinton in 1992, every person since 1952 who won the White House first won the primary in the Granite State. (Note: George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 also lost N.H. en route to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.) Here's a look at Republican winners in competitive N.H. primaries since '52 (when the state started holding a presidential preference primary) and comparing them to Iowa GOP winners since 1980 (there were no Iowa Republican caucuses in '72, when the Democrats started, and in '76 there was no official tally for a winner.)

1952:

New Hampshire winner — Dwight Eisenhower (2nd: Robert Taft)

Nominee -- Eisenhower

1964:

New Hampshire winner -- Henry Cabot Lodge (2nd: Barry Goldwater)

Nominee — Goldwater

1968:

New Hampshire winner — Richard Nixon (2nd: Nelson Rockefeller)

Nominee — Nixon

1972:

New Hampshire winner — Richard Nixon (2nd: Pete McCloskey)

Nominee -- Nixon

1976:

New Hampshire winner — Gerald Ford (2nd: Ronald Reagan)

Nominee -- Ford

1980:

New Hampshire winner — Ronald Reagan (2nd: George H.W. Bush)

Iowa winner — George H.W. Bush (2nd: Ronald Reagan)

Nominee — Reagan

1988:

New Hampshire winner — George H.W. Bush (2nd: Bob Dole)

Iowa winner — Bob Dole (2nd: Pat Robertson)

Nominee — Bush

1992:

New Hampshire winner — George H.W. Bush (2nd: Pat Buchanan)

Iowa winner — Bush (unopposed)

Nominee — Bush

1996:

New Hampshire winner — Pat Buchanan (2nd: Bob Dole)

Iowa winner — Bob Dole (2nd: Pat Buchanan)

Nominee — Dole

2000:

New Hampshire winner — John McCain (2nd: George W. Bush)

Iowa winner — George W. Bush (2nd: Steve Forbes)

Nominee — Bush

2008:

New Hampshire winner — John McCain (2nd: Mitt Romney)

Iowa winner — Mike Huckabee (2nd: Mitt Romney)

Nominee — McCain

Gallegly to retire. Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.), in Congress since 1987, announces he will not seek re-election. Gallegly is the victim of a new redistricting map that threw him in with a fellow Southern California Republican, Rep. Buck McKeon, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee. He decided not to challenge McKeon in the primary nor run in a new district that has a slight Democratic advantage but one in which 2010 GOP gov candidate Meg Whitman and Senate nominee Carly Fiorina carried, albeit slightly. In this new seat, state Sen. Tony Strickland (R) is already running. We're also watching to see what two other California House Republicans decide to do in the wake of unfavorable redistricting: David Dreier and Jerry Lewis.

Arpaio won't. Marcicopa County (Phoenix, AZ) Sheriff Joe Arpaio says he will seek a sixth term this year. Arpaio, who is 79 and has been campaigning for Rick Perry in the Texas governor's bid for the GOP presidential nomination, will face Scottsdale Police Dept. Lt. Mike Stauffer.

Deaths. Former Rep. Ed Jenkins, 78, an 8-term Democrat from Georgia who served on the Ways & Means Cmte and retired after 1992, on Jan. 1. ... Gatewood Galbraith, a perennial candidate for governor in Kentucky dating back to 1991, died Jan. 3 at age 64. ... Tony Blankley, the conservative commentator who served as the press secretary to Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) before and after he became speaker after the 1994 elections, died Sunday at age 63.

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Meanwhile, here's some mail from my in-box:

Q: So many have said that Mitt Romney is the favorite to be president but he is not pulling away in the polls against his fellow Republican contenders. Why is that so? — Ben Balan, Singapore

A: All year long the race for the Republican nomination has been a clash between Romney, the choice of the party establishment, and the more conservative, evangelical wing of the GOP that feels Romney is not sufficiently conservative. That's why there have been so many other "frontrunners" throughout the pre-primary season — Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, to mention some. They were the "Anybody But Mitt" candidates. And all the while Romney seemed stuck on attracting the support of about 25% in the polls.

Part of the problem is that the party has yet to make the decision as to what really drives them in 2012: beating President Obama, which polls and the Romney camp argue is the basis for Romney's candidacy, and staying true to conservative positions.

But, as my analysis at the top of this posting indicates, Romney's escape from Iowa with a win, combined with an expected romp on Tuesday in New Hampshire, puts him in a most envious position among those hoping to get the nomination. Let's see if the polls move as he approaches the primaries in South Carolina (Jan. 21) and Florida (Jan. 31).

Q: Your Wednesday segment on TOTN is my favorite NPR event of the week. But please resolve this weekly mystery for me. What is the ever-so-brief sound byte between "Lipstick" [Sarah Palin] and "But I'm The Decider" [George W. Bush] in your intro sequence of juicy political audio tidbits? — Steve Chall, Chapel Hill, N.C.

A: It's the newest addition to the Political Junkie montage. It's Rick Perry's immortal "oops," during the Nov. 9 GOP debate in Rochester, Mich., in which he couldn't remember the name of the third Cabinet department he would eliminate.

Q: I'm coming to the sad conclusion that Hillary Clinton is not going to run for president again, in 2016 or ever. And so now I'm starting to think about Chelsea Clinton as a potential candidate. Do you think she runs for office? Has the daughter of a president ever run for office before? — Carol London, New York, N.Y.

A: Right now Chelsea Clinton's main task should be to turn around those awful reviews she got as a correspondent on Brian Williams' "Rock Center" program for NBC News. That she would join the media after having spent much of her life avoiding the media surprised many people.

But with her mother leaving the administration after this year, there may be a desire for Clinton fans to get Chelsea in the public eye. She has been mentioned as a potential successor for Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.), who represents the Clintons' Westchester home of Chappaqua. (Lowey is likely to run for a 13th term this year.)

One daughter of a president has run for office before. In 1982, Maureen Reagan sought the GOP nomination for the Senate in California but came in a weak fifth in the primary won by San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. Last week's show came to you from the studios of New Hampshire Public Radio in Concord, and it was a special two-hour program, focusing on the candidates as they move from Iowa into New Hampshire. The first segment had special guests Linda Fowler, a professor from Dartmouth; Josh Rogers, political reporter for NHPR; Congressman Charlie Bass, representing the Romney campaign; and state Sen. Andy Sanborn, representing the Paul campaign. You can listen to the entire segment right here:

And the second segment talked about the "other" candidates who ran back in the pack, and their chances following the results in Iowa. Also on the show was Matt Bai, the political correspondent for the New York Times Sunday Magazine. And that segment can be heard here:

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every week. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt!

Note: Starting this week, ScuttleButton will appear each Monday, the same day as the Political Junkie column. Same rules apply.

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. Last week's segment had the two of us in Manchester, N.H., analyzing the Iowa results. You can listen to the latest episode here:

ON THE CALENDAR:

Jan. 10 — NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY.

Jan. 16 — GOP debate, Myrtle Beach, S.C. (Fox, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 19 — GOP debate, Charleston, S.C. (CNN).

Jan. 21 — SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY.

Jan. 23 — GOP debate, Tampa, Fla. (NBC).

Jan. 24 — President Obama's State of the Union address to Congress.

Jan. 25 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Orlando, Fla.

Jan. 26 — GOP debate, Jacksonville, Fla. (CNN).

Jan. 31 — FLORIDA PRIMARY.

Jan. 31 — Special congressional election in Oregon's 1st CD to succeed former Rep. David Wu (D), who resigned amid a sex scandal. Candidates: Suzanne Bonamici (D) and Rob Cornilles (R).

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in campaign history: Julian Bond, a black state representative from Georgia who two times before was denied his seat because of his statements expressing opposition to the Vietnam War, is sworn into office. Bond was twice elected to his seat but the Georgia House refused to seat him. The Supreme Court ruled in 1966 that barring him was a violation of Bond's right to free speech (Jan. 9, 1967).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

Okay, what's more exciting? The Iowa caucuses are finally here? The Giants won the NFC East? Or — wait for it — ScuttleButton has returned for 2012?

We all know the answer to that one.

But there's a difference. Starting next week, ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, will appear on Mondays, the same day as my Political Junkie column. That gives you TWO reasons not to turn on your computer on Mondays.

But if you insist on playing, you must know the rules, which are pretty simple. Each week on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to the last puzzle:

Tiny Tim for President and First Lady — This is an odd pin whether you know Tiny Tim or not. The button is from 1968. TT was a strange-looking ukulele-playing guy with a falsetto voice who often came on Johnny Carson's Tonight show and sang songs such as, "Tiptoe Through the Tulips." Look, I'm only responsible for putting up the buttons.

Party On! (picture of a teabag) — Button obtained at C-PAC promoting the Tea Party.

Stamp Out B.O./Baltimore Orioles — Once upon a time, people noticed the Baltimore Orioles. I got this button in Philadelphia during the 1983 World Series.

So, when you combine Tim + Tea + B.O., you kinda get ...

Tim Tebow. The God-fearing quarterback of the Denver Broncos who managed to get his team into the playoffs despite a collapse at the end of the season.

And the winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Michael Stromenger of Fargo, N.D. Michael gets a TOTN t-shirt.

The next sounds you hear will be Iowa Republicans rendering their judgment for 2012. The road to the magic number of 1,145 — delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination — begins Tuesday. The caucuses, all 1,774 of them, start at 7 pm Central time (8 Eastern), and results may start to trickle in within the hour.

Here's a look at the field, presented in order of their standing in the final Des Moines Register poll, which was released Saturday night:

Mitt Romney (leads poll with 24 percent): The nominal frontrunner in what has been a most bizarre and topsy-turvy "pre-season," Romney has the endorsements and the money, and he may ultimately have the voters. Most polls show him as the most electable of all the GOP contenders. Frankly, I can't see him not getting the nomination. But we're just hours away from the Iowa caucuses and he has yet to pull away from his Republican rivals. I don't know if it's about his past positions, which were far more liberal as he was seeking office in Massachusetts, or his Mormon religion, which remains a problem with some Iowa evangelicals. Maybe it's both. A loss in Iowa wouldn't necessarily cripple his chances — Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and John McCain all lost the caucuses and went on to win the nomination. And that would be especially true if he lost to either Ron Paul or Rick Santorum, whom no one sees as a likely nominee. Still, despite early public reluctance to commit here, it is clear that Romney wants this. And as President Obama's numbers start to creep up, the deciding factor in Romney's favor may be the polls that show him as the only Republican who has a shot at beating him. Marker: Bob Dole's 26 percent in 1996 is the weakest showing for an Iowa winner.

Ron Paul (second place with 22 percent): Widely dismissed in 2008 (and ever since, for that matter) for his trail of out-of-mainstream views, Paul nonetheless has a committed libertarian/isolationist following that showed none of the fickleness that the other candidates experienced. Nor can he be accused of shifting his positions; his opposition to big government, undeclared wars, the Fed's monetary policy and foreign aid have been a major part of him since he first came to Congress in 1976. Unlike the rest of the field, he opposes a preemptive strike on Iran, places much of the blame for 9/11 on U.S. foreign policy, and was against the raid that took out Osama bin Laden. He says following the Constitution is absolute, and blames both parties for the decline of America. But he does it in a calm and almost sad manner, not with anger or fury, and that style has won over voters as well. He has taken a hit in recent days about incendiary anti-black, anti-Zionist, anti-immigrant and anti-gay language that appeared in political newsletters under Paul's name in the early 1990s, in between Paul's two congressional stints. This stuff first came out during Paul's previous presidential run four years ago. But because he was not considered a factor — and indeed he wasn't, finishing fifth — few paid attention to it. Paul may not have written the words, and he says he didn't. But he refuses to renounce the support of those with such views. And to blame the inclusion of the passages on poor oversight, as he has, is, well, disturbing. Paul has the money to stay in the race for a long time, which he did in 2008, well after it was clear he was not going to be the nominee. But the question is whether his appeal, on the rise for weeks, may have hit a wall in the wake of these revelations. And here's another question: Though he says he's not thinking of it, many suspect he might seek the Libertarian Party's nod. He did that once before, in 1988, and he got 0.5 percent of the total vote. But then he was a former congressman with no national following or recognition. This year, with a proven record of appealing to disaffected Democrats and Republicans, could be different. Numbers: If elected president, Paul, at 77, would be the oldest in history.

Rick Santorum (third with 15 percent): If any candidate goes into Tuesday's caucuses with momentum, according to the Des Moines Register poll, it's Santorum. Until now, he had been the only candidate not to experience a day in the sun as a "frontrunner." In fact, few were even talking about him. But his dogged determination in organizing in all 99 counties seems to have paid off, at least in the Register and CNN polls. If the evangelical vote coalesces around him — he did get the backing of Bob Vander Plaats, a big deal with pro-family groups (though Rep. Steve King will remain neutral) — Santorum could be a factor. And even if it is only third place, that's still much better than anyone could have imagined just a short time ago. But a strong finish on Tuesday needs to be followed by strong finishes elsewhere, in states where he has not put in the time and effort he has in Iowa, and he is hampered by a lack of organization and money.

Newt Gingrich (fourth with 12 percent): Nobody illustrates the ups and downs of this pre-primary season quite like Gingrich. He was all but left for dead after his staff quit en masse, in June, reflecting a disillusionment with his campaign strategy. But a series of impressive debate performances, an insistence of not attacking his fellow Republicans, coupled with the collapse of the latest darling, Herman Cain, gave Gingrich new life and a huge boost in the polls. "I'm going to be the nominee," he said, and many people agreed. But he's also saddled with tons of baggage that illustrates tremendous weaknesses as well (three marriages, money from Freddie Mac, a love fest with Nancy Pelosi, attacks on Paul Ryan's Medicare plan, attacks on "Romneycare" though he praised it in 2006, an oversized ego and a propensity to make incendiary and exaggerated comments, etc.). Perhaps no one in Iowa has been the subject of as many brutal attack ads as Gingrich, most coming from the "super PACs" unofficially aligned with Romney and Perry. And the absence of a strong bank account and campaign organization — witness his failure to get on the ballot in Virginia — underlines his inability to respond. And speaking of his failure in Virginia, Gingrich's campaign chair had this to say: "Newt and I agreed that the analogy is December 1941: We have experienced an unexpected setback, but we will re-group and re-focus with increased determination, commitment and positive action." Pearl Harbor? Only Newt Gingrich.

Rick Perry (fifth with 11 percent): Just as Michele Bachmann pushed her fellow Minnesotan Tim Pawlenty to the sidelines in the early debates, Perry's candidacy seemed to end Bachmann's reach for the stars from Day One. But if the debates elevated Gingrich, they all but ruined Perry, who fumbled and stumbled his way through many of them and has never recovered; "oops" may be the debate word that best illustrates 2011. Initially under assault by his rivals for what appeared to be a humane policy towards illegal immigrants, his record then began to be picked apart, especially over business deals back home that led Bachmann (as well as Sarah Palin) to refer to his "crony capitalism." As his numbers have shrunk his appeals to the religious right have intensified; his campaign ads note that "I am a Christian," and he now says he opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest.

Michele Bachmann (sixth with 7 percent): The lone woman in the race, her high-water mark was winning the straw poll in Ames back in August. That same day, Perry got in the race and took away much of her thunder. She has yet to regain her standing. But to blame her collapse on Rick Perry simplifies what she was up against. She had a series of gaffes and misstatements, offering up facts that sometimes were not, everything from misplacing Lexington and Concord to taking someone's word that the HPV vaccination caused "retardation" to confusing one John Wayne with the other. The final indignity came last week, as her Iowa campaign chair quit and joined the Paul effort. Unless lightning strikes, she seems an all-but-certain casualty of the caucuses. Numbers: The only previous straw poll victor who finished way back in the caucus pack was Phil Gramm; the Texas senator tied Bob Dole at Ames but finished fifth with caucus participants in 1996.

History. Here's a look at the results of contested GOP caucuses since 1980 (note: Iowa Republicans did hold a first-in-the-nation caucus in 1976, when President Gerald Ford was challenged by Ronald Reagan, but no official straw vote was taken.)

1980:

Iowa winner — George H.W. Bush (32 percent)

Rest of field — Ronald Reagan (30 percent), Howard Baker (15 percent), John Connally (9 percent), Phil Crane (7 percent), John Anderson (4 percent), Bob Dole (2 percent)

1979 straw poll winner — Bush

Nominee — Reagan

1988:

Iowa winner — Bob Dole (37 percent)

Rest of field — Pat Robertson (25 percent), George H.W. Bush (19 percent), Jack Kemp (11 percent), Pete du Pont (7 percent)

1987 straw poll winner — Robertson

Nominee — Bush

1996:

Iowa winner — Bob Dole (26 percent)

Rest of field — Pat Buchanan (23 percent), Lamar Alexander (18 percent), Steve Forbes (10 percent), Phil Gramm (9 percent), Alan Keyes (7 percent), Dick Lugar (4 percent), Morry Taylor (1 percent)

1995 straw poll winner — Dole and Gramm (tied)

Nominee — Dole

2000:

Iowa winner — George W. Bush (41 percent)

Rest of field — Steve Forbes (30 percent), Alan Keyes (14 percent), Gary Bauer (9 percent), John McCain (5 percent)*, Orrin Hatch (1 percent)

1999 straw poll winner — Bush

Nominee — Bush

2008:

Iowa winner — Mike Huckabee (34 percent)

Rest of field — Mitt Romney (25 percent), Fred Thompson (13 percent), John McCain (13 percent)*, Ron Paul (10 percent), Rudy Giuliani (4 percent)*, Duncan Hunter (1 percent)

2007 straw poll winner — Romney

Nominee — McCain

And speaking of history, here's a note from Steve Wylder of Elkhart, Ind.:

I thought I heard you say that there were no Iowa presidential caucuses before 1972. There were — it's just that they weren't first-in-the-nation. Before 1972, they were held in March or April, and thus largely ignored by the national media. But the McGovern Commission was set up after the 1968 Democratic convention, which nominated Hubert Humphrey even though he never entered a primary. (It wasn't really Hubert's fault, as LBJ pulled out of the presidential race after most deadlines for entering primaries had come and gone.) Anyway, the McGovern Commission imposed fairly complicated rules for delegate selection, especially for the inclusion of women, youth, and minorities. Iowa Democrats decided to hold the caucuses early that year in order to work out any bugs and/or challenges.

That, at least, was the official reason. I suspect the unstated reason was the expectation that Sen. Harold E. Hughes (D) would be a presidential candidate in '72. Hughes bowed out before the caucuses, endorsing Sen. Edmund Muskie, who "won," tying with "Uncommitted" at 36 per cent. I remember going to a caucus in January, which was basically designed to organize the Hughes presidential campaign. As a result, I got stuck with being precinct chairman for Penn Township in Johnson County, for which I, as a 19-year-old, was unprepared.

The Iowa Caucus process. It won't touch your heart like "War Horse" or sadden you like "The Descendants," but I'm telling you, this video we did four years ago in Iowa, about the history of the caucuses and how they differ from a primary, is must-see. Well, kinda. Click here to watch. (And then go to the mugshot halfway down the page on the left.)

Candidates 2012. Nebraska's Ben Nelson becomes the 6th Democratic senator to opt out of re-election bid next year, joining Daniel Akaka of Haw., Jeff Bingaman of N.M., Kent Conrad of N.D., Jim Webb of Va. and Herb Kohl of Wis. A Democratic-leaning independent, Joe Lieberman of Conn., and two Republicans, Jon Kyl of Ariz. and Kay Bailey Hutchison, are also retiring. ... Ricardo Sanchez, the former top U.S. commander in Iraq and the Democrats' favorite for the open Texas Senate seat, withdraws from the race. ... The all-but-ignored Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor who made it to one or two presidential debates, leaves the GOP to seek the Libertarian Party nomination. Last Republican to drop out of the prez race to run outside the two-party system: John Anderson, 1980 ... Another Republican, developer Donald Trump, also quit the party in preparation for what may or may not be (do we really care) an independent bid for president. ... Rep. Steve Austria, whose 7th District in Ohio was sliced up in redistricting and was placed in the same CD as fellow Republican Mike Turner, announces he will retire and not seek a third term. ... Scott Mackay of Rhode Island Public Radio tells us that Joseph P. Kennedy III, the 31 year old son of former Rep. Joe Kennedy II (and grandson of RFK), is likely to jump into the race to succeed the retiring Rep. Barney Frank (D) in Mass.

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Meanwhile, here's some mail from my in-box:

Q: For all the focus on the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, how many people actually sign up for the Iowa thing and are they restricted to registered Republicans? And how many people show up for New Hampshire and is it an open primary? — Penney Kolb, Morgantown, W.Va.

A: Turnout in caucuses, which requires major commitment, are always dwarfed by turnout in primaries, where all you need to do is show up, vote, and skedaddle. About 120,000 Republicans caucused in Iowa in 2008; in New Hampshire, which has a much smaller population, 235,000 Republicans voted. (The GOP, reeling then under the unpopularity of President Bush, the state of the economy and the war in Iraq, is expected to see higher turnouts this year.)

You must be a registered Republican to attend a Republican caucus in Iowa, but you can register at the caucus site. Thus, some who are predicting a Ron Paul victory expect Democrats and independents to show up and declare their affinity for the GOP so they can vote for Paul. In New Hampshire, independents can vote in either primary; they were instrumental in John McCain's 2000 and 2008 victories. But Democrats may not vote in GOP primaries and vice versa.

Q: If I were a liberal in Iowa and I wanted to caucus for the GOP candidate most likely to win the nomination but lose to Obama, who would that be? — Shawn OHare, Clear Lake, Iowa

A: While the polls have fluctuated for much of the past few months — even Herman Cain was beating Obama in some polls — it seems that the president has regained some of his popularity. At this point, at least, Romney is the only one who polls show is in striking distance of Obama.

Q: Who was the last Republican candidate who ran and won in a contested caucus in Iowa who became the party's nominee for president? — George Topor, Corte Madera, Calif.

A: George W. Bush, in 2000, and he won the Iowa triple crown that cycle. He won the straw poll, the Iowa caucuses and the nomination. And he went on to win the White House.

Q: Why are most of the candidates using their ad money to attack Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul instead of Mitt Romney? Is there some sort of agreement not to beat up Romney too much because he's the likely general election candidate? — Sally Sadoff, San Diego, Calif.

A: The battle in the GOP from the outset seemed to be which candidate would become the alternative to Romney, widely thought of as the establishment choice. Anyone who watched the debates saw no shortage of attacks on Romney and his so-called flip-flops. But the assumption is that as the race goes on it will be Romney vs. the anti-Romney, and thus the other candidates are aggressively seeking the mantle of the latter. Note that with the apparent rise of Rick Santorum has come attacks on him from others in the race, notably Rick Perry, who has this clever "Jeopardy" style ad up:

Q: If Newt Gingrich becomes president, would he be the first Ph.D to achieve that office? — Rick Thurmond, Cobb, Calif.

A: The second. The first was Woodrow Wilson, who was awarded his Ph.D. doctorate in 1886, following the publication of his book, Congressional Government.

2011 Farewells. Lots of responses to last week's column, a voluminous listing of those in the political world who died in 2011. Lou Cannon, the former Washington Post reporter and Ronald Reagan biographer, sent in this:

It's good you do this compilation at the end of every year on those we've lost. This was poignant year for me; David Broder was my mentor and close friend and colleague at the Post. Dick Wirthlin's data and insights guide me in stories and books. Mark Hatfield and Chuck Percy, both of whom I covered, were straight-shooters, with their constituents and the press. I kept in touch with Hatfield and had the honor of doing the Hatfield Lecture one year for the Oregon Historical Society. There were many others on your to whom I was indebted, including George Gallup Sr. and [former California congressman] Steve Horn. It's good to take time to remember them all.

Al Eisele, the editor-at-large for The Hill who was the press secretary for former Vice President Walter Mondale:

Didn't realize we'd lost so many of them in the past year. I attended memorials services for three — Eleanor Mondale, Hal Bruno and Milt Gwirtzman, and covered at least half of them at one time or another. Please keep me off the list for at least 10 more years.

Craig Shirley, the conservative consultant and author of the new book, "December 1941: 31 Days that Changed America and Saved the World," had this:

The odd and sad fact is I knew so many of the people who have died in the last several years. It is weird to say to my wife, "I just had dinner with that person." Or, "I just saw so and so." The other day my son Matt said I was middle aged to which I replied, "Yeah? How many 110 year old men do you know?" But life goes on, eh?

Antony Pate of Washington, DC., added this: "Many of the people you mention were well-known, and well-recognized, upon their deaths; but your references to Bill Monroe, John Armstrong, Mike Posner, and Leonard Weinglass, among others, were well-deserved and much-appreciated."

I said my list hardly claims to be complete, and I invited readers to send in the names of those I missed. John Hiestand of Hillsboro, Ohio, had one: former Rep. James Quigley (D-Pa.), who was elected in 1954, defeated in 1956, elected again in 1958, and defeated again in 1960; he died on Dec. 15 at the age of 93.

And James McKinstra of Aurora, Minn., and a "near life-long Illinoisan" until last year, lists two Illinoisans who died: former First Lady Lura Lynn Ryan, wife of ex-Gov. George Ryan, and former Chicago First Lady Maggie Daley, wife of ex-Mayor Richard M. Daley.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. Last week's show came to you from the studios of Iowa Public Radio in Des Moines, with special guests Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. and the pollster for the Des Moines Register; Joyce Russell, reporter for Iowa Public Radio; and Steve Scheffler, Republican National Committeeman for Iowa and president of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition. You can listen to the entire segment right here:

This week the show will be coming from New Hampshire.

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every week. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter the current contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt! DON'T FORGET TO CHECK BACK HERE ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEW PUZZLE.

Note: Starting next week, ScuttleButton will appear each Monday, the same day as the Political Junkie column. Same rules apply.

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. Last week's segment had Ron in Washington and me in Des Moines. You can listen to the latest episode here:

And speaking of Des Moines ... a big thanks to the staff at Iowa Public Radio, who was gracious and wonderful in having the TOTN Junkie segment come out of their studios. At a get together with supporters of IPR afterwards, I had the pleasure of meeting many people who generously give their time and money to making public radio possible. At the reception were two former Republican lt. govs. of Iowa, Joy Corning — who served two terms under Terry Branstad — and Arthur Neu, who was first elected in the 1970s. Both were delightful, and they tolerated my desire to go down memory lane with them.

And as long as we're on the subject of Arthur Neu, how can we avoid using his campaign button in this mini-ScuttleButton messsage? (see buttons at left)

ON THE CALENDAR:

Jan. 3 — IOWA CAUCUSES.

Jan. 4 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from New Hampshire.

Jan. 7 — GOP debate, N.H. (ABC, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 8 — GOP debate, Concord, N.H. (NBC's Meet the Press, 9 am ET).

Jan. 10 — NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY.

Jan. 16 — GOP debate, Myrtle Beach, S.C. (Fox, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 19 — GOP debate, Charleston, S.C. (CNN).

Jan. 21 — SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY.

Jan. 23 — GOP debate, Tampa, Fla. (NBC).

Jan. 24 — President Obama's State of the Union address to Congress.

Jan. 25 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Orlando, Fla.

Jan. 26 — GOP debate, Jacksonville, Fla. (CNN).

Jan. 31 — FLORIDA PRIMARY.

Jan. 31 — Special congressional election in Oregon's 1st CD to succeed former Rep. David Wu (D), who resigned amid a sex scandal. Candidates: Suzanne Bonamici (D) and Rob Cornilles (R).

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in campaign history: Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois wins the Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses, the first step en route to becoming the first African-American elected to the White House. In the caucuses he is followed by former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.). Two other Democrats, Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden, finish in single digits and drop out of the race. On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with strong evangelical Christian support, beats out another ex-gov., Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) finishes third, followed by Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who didn't compete in Iowa but will go on to win the GOP nomination (Jan. 3, 2008).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

Nothing, many will agree, seems to be working in Washington these days. The degree of acrimony between the Democrats and Republicans appears to be at an all-time high.

In looking at a list of those who passed in 2011, I'm struck by how many who believed in working across the aisle, believed more in getting things done than making a point. I don't know if we will ever return to those days in our lifetime; certainly not in the politically-charged year of 2012.

But before we get to Iowa and New Hampshire and the conventions and the general election, a look back at 2011, remembering those voices in the world of politics we lost. Among the departed are two former Democratic vice presidential candidates. One, Geraldine Ferraro, made history by becoming the first woman to run for V.P. on a major-party ticket; the other, Sargent Shriver, was named only after the Democrats' original choice imploded over secrets from his past. Florida's Claude Kirk and Texas' Bill Clements were their respective states' first Republican governors since Reconstruction. John Cashin was the first African-American to seek the governorship of Alabama in history, at a time when George Wallace was still the undisputed leader of the state. Ellen McCormack was the first presidential candidate to base her entire campaign on the issue of abortion. Two GOP senators on the list, Charles Percy and Mark Hatfield, didn't always see eye to eye with their party. Richard Poff, his voting record on race under the microscope, walked away from a Supreme Court appointment.

And we lost one of the nation's most popular first ladies in history, Betty Ford.

Presented here is a chronological list of those who died this year. It doesn't claim to be complete, but it includes many of those who made our lives more interesting and the world a better place.

William Ratchford, 76, a Connecticut Democrat who served three terms in the House before losing in 1984 to John Rowland, a Republican who would later become governor. Narrowly defeated in his first bid for Congress in 1974 by Ron Sarasin (R), he won the seat four years later when Sarasin left to run for governor. (Jan. 2)

William Walsh, 98, who served three terms (1973-78) as a Republican House member from New York. A former mayor of Syracuse, he was the father of ex-Rep. James Walsh, who served 20 years until his retirement in 2008. (Jan. 8)

Howard Pollock, 90, Alaska's second House member since achieving Statehood in 1959. A Republican, he unseated Rep. Ralph Rivers (D) in 1966 and served two terms before losing the 1970 GOP primary for governor. (He also unsuccessfully ran for gov. in the 1962 primary.) He was succeeded in the House by Nick Begich, who was his Democratic opponent in '68. (Jan. 9)

Sargent Shriver, 95, the Democrats' choice for vice president in 1972 after their original nominee, Sen. Tom Eagleton, was forced off the ticket amid revelations of previous bouts of depression and electroshock therapy. The McGovern-Shriver ticket lost 49 states that year to the Republican ticket led by President Richard Nixon. Shriver, who was married to Eunice Kennedy, the sister of President John F. Kennedy, was JFK's choice to become the first head of the Peace Corps in 1961; he was also President Johnson's ambassador to France. A gubernatorial hopeful from Maryland in 1970, he also sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976, but a weak 5th-place finish in New Hampshire was the beginning of the end. (Jan. 18)

Wayne Grisham, 88, a California Republican who won an open House seat in 1978 and served until 1982, when redistricting forced him to run against fellow-GOP Rep. David Dreier in the primary. (Jan. 19)

Jay Rhodes, 67, whose father was the longtime House Minority Leader and who won his dad's seat in Congress. When John Rhodes, an Arizona Republican, retired in 1982, the seat was won by John McCain. When McCain left to run for the Senate in '86, Jay Rhodes replaced him. He won two landslide re-elections, but in 1992, caught with 32 overdrafts in the House banking scandal, he lost to Sam Coppersmith (D). As president of the United States Association of Former Members of Congress, he became a friend and a big fan of the Political Junkie column. (Jan. 20)

Mike Michaelson, 86, the superintendent of the House Radio-Television Correspondents' Gallery until he left to become executive VP of C-SPAN in 1981. (Jan. 23)

David Frye, 77, the impressionist and satirist from the 1960s and '70s who specialized in portraying Richard Nixon. (Jan. 24)

Guy Velella, 66, a former state senator from the Bronx who was the borough's only Republican elected official, and whose influence in Albany ended in 2004 after his indictment and conviction for bribery. (Jan. 27)

Douglas Head, 80, Minnesota's GOP state attorney general who lost his bid for governor in 1970 to Democrat Wendell Anderson. (Feb. 2)

Earle Morris, 82, the lt. gov. of South Carolina whose attempt to move up to the governorship was thwarted in the 1974 Democratic primary, where he finished third. (Feb. 9)

Steve Horn, 79, a moderate California Republican who was elected to the House in 1992, winning the seat vacated by Democrat Glenn Anderson. He served until 2002, when the legislature eliminated his district and he retired. In his first bid for Congress, in 1988, he lost to Dana Rohrabacher in the GOP primary for an open seat. (Feb. 17)

Bill Monroe, 90, who succeeded Lawrence Spivak in 1975 as moderator of NBC's "Meet the Press." (Feb. 17)

Russell Peterson, 94, a pro-environment Delaware Republican who served one term as governor (1969-72) and was later chairman of the Council of Environmental Quality under Presidents Nixon and Ford, but whose battles with members of his party led him to endorse Jimmy Carter for president in 1980 and become a Democrat in 1996. (Feb. 21)

James Damman, 78, a Michigan Republican who served as lt. gov. under Gov. William Milliken (R) from 1975 to '78. (Feb. 23)

John Armstrong, 72, the former deputy D.C. bureau chief for ABC News. (Feb. 25)

James McClure, 86, a conservative Republican from Idaho who served in Congress for 24 years, including three terms as senator. In 1966 he ousted Rep. Compton White (D). Six years later, he defeated fellow GOP Rep. George Hansen in the primary en route to the first of his Senate victories. A strong advocate of gun rights and development policy — he chaired the Energy Committee — he hoped to succeed Howard Baker as Senate GOP Leader in 1984 but lost in a five-way contest eventually won by Bob Dole. He retired in 1990. (Feb. 26)

David Broder, 81, perhaps the most preeminent political journalist in the nation, reporting for more than four decades for the Washington Post. (March 9)

Mike Posner, 79, a longtime political reporter for UPI and Reuters who covered Congress and national conventions. (March 11)

Richard Wirthlin, 80, the pollster for Ronald Reagan who joined the Californian's staff in 1968 while he was still governor, worked on the Gipper's 1976 presidential bid, and became a top Reagan adviser and strategist throughout his White House years. (March 16)

Warren Christopher, 85, the deputy secretary of state in the Carter administration who negotiated the release of the U.S. hostages held by Iran in 1981, and who became President Clinton's first secretary of state. He headed up the search committee that picked Al Gore as Clinton's running mate, and he led Gore's legal team during the 2000 Florida recount. (March 18)

John Cashin, 82, an Alabama civil rights leader and founder of the National Democratic Party of Alabama (NDPA) who in 1970 became the first African American to run for governor of his state since Reconstruction, garnering about 15% of the vote as an independent against George Wallace. (March 21)

Leonard Weinglass, 77, a left-wing defense attorney who represented, among others, Jerry Rubin and Abbie Hoffman during their trial for conspiracy in the aftermath of the calamitous 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago, Daniel Ellsberg in the Pentagon Papers case, Black Panther Angela Davis in a murder and kidnapping case, and Bill and Emily Harris, the Symbionese Liberation Army folks who were responsible for the 1974 kidnapping of Patty Hearst. (March 23)

Geraldine Ferraro, 75, the first woman to appear on a major-party presidential ticket when she became Walter Mondale's nominee for vice president in 1984. A Democrat from Queens, N.Y., Ferraro won an open Democratic congressional seat in 1978 and quickly advanced up the leadership ladder, becoming chair of the 1984 Democratic Platform Committee. Mondale picking her as his running mate broke historic barriers, but ultimately it failed to make a difference at the ballot box; the Mondale-Ferraro ticket lost 49 out of 50 states to Reagan and Bush, who even won a majority of female voters. For much of the campaign, Ferraro was on the defensive over the business practices of her husband, real estate businessman John Zaccaro. She was also attacked by the Catholic church for her support of abortion rights. In 1992 she decided to take on GOP Sen. Al D'Amato, but her bid for the Democratic nomination fell just 1 percent short to Robert Abrams, the state attorney general. She ran again in 1998, but got clobbered in the primary by Charles Schumer, who won the seat. (March 26)

Ellen McCormack, 84, a Long Island housewife who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976 in a campaign based solely on her opposition to abortion. She won about 238,000 votes in the primaries and got 22 delegates, and made history in becoming the first female presidential candidate to qualify for both federal financing and Secret Service protection. She also ran for lt. gov. of New York in 1978 on the Right to Life Party banner. In 1980, she made an independent run for the White House, but most anti-abortion voters rallied behind Ronald Reagan. (March 27)

Ned McWherter, 80, a Democratic power-broker in Tennessee who was speaker of the state House for a record 14 years and a successful two-term governor. He won his first gov. term in 1986, defeating ex-Gov. Winfield Dunn (R), and was re-elected four years later in a landslide. During his administration he worked to increase spending in education and health care for the poor. (April 4)

John Adler, 51, a New Jersey Democrat who won a congressional seat long held by the GOP but who lost it two years later. When Rep. Jim Saxton (R) retired in 2008, Adler won the seat. But in the GOP sweep of 2010, he lost to Jon Runyon, a former lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles. (April 4)

Kam Kuwata, 57, a leading California Democratic strategist who worked for Sens. Alan Cranston and Dianne Feinstein. (April 11)

Harold Volkmer, 80, a 10-term Democratic member of the House from Missouri who was one of his party's strongest opponents of gun control. He was first elected to Congress in 1976. While more conservative than most Democrats in the House, he became a strong foe of Republicans generally and House Speaker Newt Gingrich specifically. In 1996 he was narrowly defeated by Republican Kenny Hulshof. (April 16)

William Rusher, 87, one of the original leaders of the modern conservative movement who helped get Barry Goldwater to run for president in 1964 and who was the longtime publisher of National Review, the magazine founded by William F. Buckley Jr. (April 16)

William Donald Schaefer, 89, a political gadfly who served two terms as governor of Maryland but whose true love seemed to always be Baltimore, where he was mayor for 16 years. A longtime city councilmember, he was elected mayor in 1971, where he was responsible for remaking of what was a crumbling city. In his three bids for re-election, he won more than 85% of the vote each time. Running for governor in 1986, his 82% of the vote is a state record. He won a second term in '90 but was term limited in '94. In 1998, he was elected state comptroller and served two terms, where he often feuded with his fellow Democrats. He was defeated for a third term in the 2006 primary. (April 18)

Robert Duncan, 90, who after two terms in the House (1963-66) was the Democratic nominee for the Senate from Oregon in 1966, when he lost to liberal Republican Mark Hatfield, who was governor at the time. He returned to the House in the 1974 elections, winning an open seat and serving until 1980, when he was beaten in the primary by Ron Wyden. (April 29)

Robert Ellsworth, 84, a former congressman from Kansas who became a key campaign official in Richard Nixon's successful bid for the presidency in 1968. While Nixon was losing his 1960 race to John Kennedy, Ellsworth, a liberal Republican, ousted freshman Rep. Newell George (D). In 1966, as an opponent of the Vietnam War, he challenged moderate Sen. James Pearson in the GOP primary from the left, but lost. Despite his views about Vietnam, Ellsworth became close with Nixon, who named him his national campaign director in '68, and was later ambassador to NATO. A lifelong war opponent, he backed Hillary Clinton and then Barack Obama for president in 2008. (May 9)

Jeff Gralnick, 72, a longtime political producer for all three major TV networks who (and this is the most important part of his bio) headed up ABC News election coverage when I got there in 1983. His journalism career was briefly interrupted when he served as press secretary for George McGovern's early days as a presidential candidate in 1971. (May 9)

Daniel Vovak, 39, who lost the 2006 GOP Senate primary in Maryland to then-Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. (May 21)

Peter Frelinghuysen, 95, a member of a famed New Jersey Republican political family, who served in the House from 1953 until his retirement in 1974. His family produced four U.S. senators, as well as his son Rodney, who has been in the House since 1995. During his 22 years in Congress, in which he easily won election, he was regarded as a fiscal conservative who often took moderate positions on the environment and civil rights. (May 23)

Bill Clements, 94, a millionaire Texas oilman who in 1978 became the first Republican since Reconstruction to win the governorship of the Lone Star State. Brash and colorful, he took advantage of a split in Democratic ranks that year, as the incumbent governor lost the Dem primary to a more liberal opponent, state Attorney General John Hill. Conservative Democrats then rallied behind Clements, who won a narrow victory. But Clements had troubles with the overwhelmingly Democratic state legislature, and not much was accomplished during his term. Democrat Mark White, with a strong black and Hispanic turnout, turned Clements out in 1982. But Clements returned the favor four years later. Linked to a scandal involving the Southern Methodist University football program, he did not seek another term in 1990. (May 29)

Matt Fong, 57, for the former California state treasurer who in 1998 was the Republican nominee for the Senate against Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer. His opponent in the GOP primary was Darrell Issa, now a member of the House. His mother was March Fong Eu, a Democrat who served as California's secretary of state for five terms. (June 1)

Walter Peterson, 88, a two-term Republican governor of New Hampshire whose bid for a third term ended in 1972, when he lost the GOP primary to Meldrim Thomson. (June 2)

Lawrence Eagleburger, 80, a nominal Republican-leaning diplomat who worked for five presidents, culminating in a brief tenure as secretary of state in the waning days of the administration of the first President Bush. (June 4)

Graham Purcell, 92, a Texas Democrat who won a special House race in 1961 after Frank Ikard (D) resigned and who served until he lost a 1972 bid for re-election when his district was merged with that of GOP Rep. Bob Price. (June 11)

Betty Roberts, 88, an unsuccessful candidate for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination from Oregon in 1974. Later that year, she was named as her party's nominee for the Senate against GOP incumbent Bob Packwood after ex-Sen. Wayne Morse died after winning the primary. (June 25)

Richard Poff, 87, a conservative Republican House member from Virginia who, because of his record on civil rights, was forced to turn down President Nixon's offer to nominate him to the U.S. Supreme Court in 1971. Elected to Congress in 1952, he joined 100 other members who in 1956 signed the "Southern Manifesto" protest of the '54 Supreme Court Brown vs. Board of Education decision that outlawed segregation in public schools. In 1960 he was considered a potential Nixon running mate. When Justice Hugo Black announced his retirement in 1971, Poff was Nixon's first choice. By then, Poff had recanted some of his early positions on race, but it was too late; he withdrew his name from consideration, and didn't seek re-election to the House in 1972. (June 27)

Charles Whalen, 90, who during his six terms in office (1967-78) was considered one of the most liberal Republicans in the House. An early foe of the Vietnam War, he ousted freshman Ohio Rep. Rodney Love (D) in 1966. Several times he offered resolutions to withdraw from Vietnam, and often clashed with the Armed Services Cmte chair, Mendel Rivers (D-S.C.). He retired in 1978 and became a Democrat the following year. (June 27)

Orvin Fjare, 93, a one-term Republican member of the House from Montana (1955-56) who lost a close Senate race in 1960 to Democrat Lee Metcalf. (June 27)

Betty Ford, 93, who as First Lady for two-plus years in the 1970s won over an American public with her candid opinions and who polls showed was more popular than her husband, Gerald Ford. A proponent of abortion rights and the Equal Rights Amendment, she also was up front about her struggles with cancer and addictions. (July 8)

Frank Mascara, 81, a four-term Democratic member of the House from Pennsylvania. His campaign slogan for local office early in his career was ... wait for it ... "Your Mascara is running." First elected to Congress in 1994, he served until 2002, when redistricting eliminated his seat and he was forced to run against fellow Democrat John Murtha, who beat him convincingly in the primary. (July 10)

James Molloy, 75, the last Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives, before Republicans eliminated the position upon taking office in 1995. Starting his career in Democratic politics in Buffalo, N.Y., Malloy was elected doorkeeper by Dem House members in 1974. After the 1994 elections, the GOP abolished the position in an effort to save money. (July 19)

Bruce Sundlun, 91, whose multiple marriages made as much news as he did during his tenure as governor of Rhode Island. A Democrat and telecommunications multimillionaire, his first two runs for governor were failures, losing to incumbent Republican Ed DiPrete in a landslide in 1986 and in a squeaker in 1988. In 1990, running again, he beat DiPrete, who was enmeshed in scandal, with about three-quarters of the vote. He won a second term in '92, but in '94, he got clobbered by about 30 points in the Democratic primary by state Sen. Myrth York, the first time a Rhode Island governor was ousted in the primary. He was also married five times, with four divorces along the way. (July 21)

William Hildenbrand, 89, a Republican Senate aide who was named Secretary of the Senate in 1981, when the GOP took control of the chamber for the first time in 26 years. (July 21)

Charles Manatt, 75, who chaired the Democratic National Committee after President Carter's defeat in 1980 but who was unable to bring the party back to power. As DNC chair starting in 1981, he used innovative tactics and solid fundraising to help rebuild the party, which made major gains in the House in 1982. But in 1984, Walter Mondale, the party's presidential nominee, attempted to replace Manatt with Bert Lance, Carter's old ally. With party regulars furious, Mondale backed down, an event that hurt his cause. Stepping down after Mondale's landslide loss to President Reagan, Manatt signed on with White House hopefuls Gary Hart and then Paul Simon in 1988. He was President Clinton's ambassador to the Dominican Republic. (July 22)

Milton Gwirtzman, 74, a longtime political confidant for John, Robert and Edward Kennedy, starting with JFK's presidential bid in 1960. (July 23)

Clarence Miller, 93, a veteran Republican member of the House (1967-92) who was a longtime proponent of cutting spending. He ousted Rep. Walter Moeller (D) in 1966 and won routine re-elections in landslide fashion. But in 1992, his district was eliminated and he decided to challenge Rep. Bob McEwen, a fellow Republican, in the primary. In a bitter battle between the low-key Miller and the bombastic McEwen — who had bank overdraft problems — Miller lost by just 286 votes. Miller never fully conceded, and the GOP disunity helped elect a Democrat: Ted Strickland, who had previously run for the seat three times, losing each time. (Aug. 2)

Bernadine Healy, 67, the first woman to lead the National Institutes of Health who lost the 1994 GOP primary for the Senate from Ohio to Mike DeWine. (Aug. 6)

Mark Hatfield, 89, a liberal Republican senator from Oregon who was a noted opponent of the Vietnam War and defense spending. He also opposed the death penalty as well as abortion, and was a strong proponent of civil rights. Elected governor in 1958 and again in '62, he won an open Senate seat, narrowly, in 1966, running as a dove against Rep. Robert Duncan, a Democrat who supported President Johnson on the war. Despite his views, he was thought to be on Richard Nixon's short list for vice president in 1968. And in four successful runs for re-election, his primary vote never dipped below 61%. He was the deciding vote against a balanced-budget constitutional amendment in 1995, a vote that so infuriated freshman Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) that he tried to dislodge him as chairman of the Appropriations Committee. With the GOP moving steadily to the right and faced with a potentially serious primary challenge — and damaged by a Senate Ethics Committee rebuke in 1992 for failing to disclose gifts — he decided against a 6th-term bid in 1996. (Aug. 7)

Hugh Carey, 92, who as governor of New York helped save NYC from bankruptcy in the 1970s. A liberal Democrat from Brooklyn, he upset GOP Rep. Francis Dorn in 1960. In 1969, he announced his candidacy for mayor of New York but dropped out to run for city council president on a ticket led by ex-Mayor Robert Wagner. That entire ticket lost in the primary. In 1973, longtime GOP Gov. Nelson Rockefeller resigned, replaced by his loyal lt. gov., Malcolm Wilson. Carey jumped into the 1974 gov. race, first surprising the polls by trouncing Howard Samuels in the primary and then, in an election year defined by Watergate, easily defeating Wilson. Bailing out NYC was his first crisis. President Ford, in the words of the famous Daily News headline ("Ford to City: Drop Dead"), refused to go along with a bailout. Carey, working with Mayor Abe Beame and financial officials, helped rescue the city in 1975. But he was not universally popular with his fellow Democrats, and in fact his own lt. gov., Mary Anne Krupsak, challenged him for renomination in 1978. But he won that race, and beat his Republican opponent, Assembly Speaker Perry Duryea, as well. With dwindling approval ratings and faced with the possibility of a primary challenge from his own handpicked lt. gov., Mario Cuomo, he decided against seeking a third term in 1982. Cuomo won that race. (Aug. 7)

Charles Wyly, 77, a Texas billionaire who along with his brother Sam was a major donor to Republican causes and candidates, including Gov. Rick Perry. (Aug. 7)

Howard Paster, 66, a Washington lobbyist who became a top aide to President Clinton and who, despite Democratic Party unhappiness, helped push the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) through Congress in 1993. (Aug. 10)

Joseph Mohbat, 73, a former Associated Press political reporter who covered Robert Kennedy's 1968 presidential run and who later served as press secretary of the DNC. (Aug. 10)

Bob Shamansky, 84, a one-term Democratic member of the House from Ohio whose victory — beating GOP incumbent Sam Devine in the big Republican year of 1980, and defeat — losing to GOP challenger John Kasich in the big Democratic year of 1982 — confounded conventional wisdom. (Aug. 11)

Frank Jackman, 79, a longtime journalist who served as Washington bureau chief for the New York Daily News and covered the 1963 March on Washington, the resignation of President Nixon, and the Iran-contra scandal. (Aug. 14)

Nora Bredes, 60, an anti-nuclear activist from New York who was the unsuccessful Democratic nominee for Congress on Long Island in 1996, losing to GOP incumbent Michael Forbes. (Aug. 18)

Charles Gubser, 95, a conservative Republican from California who served 11 terms in the House, first winning in 1952 and retiring in '74. (Aug. 20)

Peter Terpeluk, 63, a prominent GOP fundraiser who served as Finance Director for the Republican National Committee and who was President George W. Bush's ambassador to Luxembourg. (Aug. 23)

David Bitner, 62, the former Florida state GOP chair (Sept. 8).

Erwin Mitchell, 87, who was elected to the House in 1958 as a Democrat from Georgia and served one term. (Sept. 13)

Carl Oglesby, 76, a Vietnam War opponent who headed Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) in the 1960s. (Sept. 13)

Malcolm Wallop, 78, a leading conservative Republican senator from Wyoming who battled on behalf of President Reagan's tax cuts and fought against leftists in Central America. An unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate in 1974, who ran a mostly moderate campaign in the primary, stressing the environment, he was an unabashed conservative two years later when he ousted Sen. Gale McGee, one of the Senate's more centrist Democrats. Wallop won two more Senate terms and retired after 1994. (Sept. 14)

James Cannon, 93, a writer and editor for Newsweek magazine who later became an aide to New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, a domestic policy adviser to President Gerald Ford and, finally, chief of staff to Senate GOP Leader Howard Baker. (Sept. 15)

Kara Kennedy, 51, daughter of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy. (Sept. 16)

Charles Percy, 91, a moderate Illinois Republican who served three terms in the Senate and rose to become chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. President of Bell & Howell, he ran for governor in 1964 but, hurt by having Barry Goldwater atop the ticket, narrowly lost the race to incumbent Democrat Otto Kerner. Two years later, he unseated liberal Sen. Paul Douglas (D) and immediately found himself talked about as a future presidential candidate. One roadblock to his moving up was that on many issues he associated himself with the liberal ("Rockefeller") wing of the party — he was a dove on Vietnam — and was widely critical of President Nixon, especially as more details came out about the Watergate scandal. The other is that, as he was plotting out a run for 1976, his plans were scuttled when Nixon resigned and was succeeded by Jerry Ford, who sought the White House for himself. Percy won two more Senate terms, in 1972 and '78. By the time he sought a fourth term, in 1984, he was heading up Foreign Relations and was targeted by many in the Jewish community for what they saw as his hostility towards Israel. He faced a stubborn primary challenge from Rep. Tom Corcoran, a conservative, and lost a narrow general election contest to Rep. Paul Simon. (Sept. 17)

Eleanor Mondale, 51, the daughter of former Vice President Walter Mondale and a TV entertainment reporter. (Sept. 17)

Justin Feldman, 92, a Manhattan attorney who helped manage Robert Kennedy's 1964 Senate campaign and who as a Reform Democrat had a long history in taking on Tammany Hall. (Sept. 21)

Rolland Redlin, 91, a one-term Democratic House member from North Dakota, who defeated GOP incumbent Don Short in 1964 but lost two years later to Thomas Kleppe (R). (Sept. 23)

Claude Kirk, 85, a flamboyant, charming and sometimes infuriating Florida Republican who was his state's first GOP governor since Reconstruction. A Democrat who switched parties during Richard Nixon's 1960 bid for president, Kirk was the GOP nominee against Sen. Spessard Holland in 1964 but lost badly. Two years later he won the governorship as the Democrats self-destructed; incumbent Gov. Haydon Burns was beaten in a bitter primary by liberal Miami Mayor Robert King High, and many Burns supporters gravitated to Kirk. The book on Gov. Kirk was mixed; he made many solid appointments and worked to improve the environment. But at the same time, he was often seen as a showman, openly pining for the vice presidency in 1968 and supporting failed U.S. Supreme Court nominee Harrold Carswell for a Senate seat over the rest of the party establishment. He was defeated after one term in 1970 by Democrat Reubin Askew. He later returned to the Democratic fold and ran, unsuccessfully, for governor and the Senate. He also made half-hearted bids for the presidency. (Sept. 27)

Richard Mallary, 82, a Vermont congressman who in 1974 became the first Republican from his state to lose a Senate race in history. Mallory won a special House election in 1971 to succeed Robert Stafford, a Republican who also won a special election to replace the late Sen. Winston Prouty. Heavily favored to succeed the retiring Sen. George Aiken (R) in 1974, he was upset by Patrick Leahy who, with help from the Watergate scandal, became the first Vermont Democrat to win a Senate seat. (Sept. 27)

Steve Daley, 62, a former political reporter for the Chicago Tribune who covered Congress and the presidential campaigns. (Oct. 2)

Kenneth Dahlberg, 94, the Midwest finance chair for the Committee to Re-elect the President, whose campaign check to Nixon fundraising head Maurice Stans wound up in the bank account of Bernard Barker, one of the Watergate burglars — which provided the first concrete evidence that linked the Nixon campaign to the Watergate break-in. Dahlberg was absolved of any wrongdoing, but tracing his check by Washington Post reporters Woodward and Bernstein helped end Nixon's presidency. (Oct. 4)

Fred Shuttlesworth, 89, a civil rights leader from Alabama who survived beatings and bombings to fight racial justice alongside Martin Luther King Jr. and Ralph Abernathy in the 1950s and '60s. (Oct. 5)

Albert Rosellini, 101, a former two term governor of Washington. A longtime state legislator, he was elected governor in 1956 and again in 1960. During his tenure, the state prison system was reformed, and he worked to improve the state infrastructure. But there were also reports that he may have done improper favors for friends, contributors and Mob figures, reports that contributed to his defeat in 1964 to Republican Dan Evans. Sitting out the '68 election, he attempted a comeback in 1972 but again lost to Evans. (Oct. 10)

Franklin Kameny, 86, a leading figure in the gay rights movement whose 1971 bid to become the District of Columbia's non-voting congressional delegate failed in the Democratic primary. (Oct. 11)

Matthew Martinez, 82, a Democratic member of the House from California for 18 years who angrily switched to the GOP in 2000 after losing the Democratic primary for another term. Martinez first came to the House after a special election in 1982, when Rep. George Danielson (D) left to accept appointment to the state court of appeals. In November he knocked off rightwing Rep. John Rousselot after the Republican's seat was eliminated. Throughout his tenure, Martinez had a mostly liberal record, but he also opposed abortion and gun control. Those positions led Hilda Solis, then a state senator and now the secretary of labor, to take him on in the primary. Defeated in a landslide, Martinez bolted to the Republican Party not long after the primary. (Oct. 15)

Virginia Knauer, 96, a leading consumer adviser to three Republican presidents who earlier in her career served as a GOP member on the Philadelphia city council. (Oct. 16)

Ed Thompson, 66, who served as mayor of Tomah, Wisc., and was the Libertarian Party nominee for governor in 2002, receiving 11% of the vote. His brother is Tommy Thompson, the former governor and 2012 GOP Senate hopeful. (Oct. 22)

Robert Pierpoint, 86, a former CBS News correspondent who covered the Korean War, the JFK assassination, and every president from Eisenhower to Carter. (Oct. 22)

Perkins Bass, 99, a New Hampshire Republican who served in the House from 1955, after he won the seat vacated by Senate candidate Norris Cotton, to 1962, when he sought the Senate seat of the late Styles Bridges but a brutal GOP primary left him vulnerable in the general election and he lost to Thomas McIntyre (D). His son, Charlie Bass, currently serves in the House. (Oct. 25)

Howard Wolpe, 71, a former congressman from Michigan who was his party's gubernatorial nominee in 1994. He narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Garry Brown in 1976 but reversed the result in a rematch two years later. In the House he was a leading proponent of sanctions against South Africa's apartheid government. A victim of redistricting in 1992, he left the House but two years later challenged GOP Gov. John Engler. After defeating Debbie Stabenow in that year's primary, he took her as his running mate. But Engler won in a landslide. (Oct. 26)

James Forrester, 74, a Republican state senator from North Carolina who led the successful fight to put a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage on the 2012 ballot. (Oct. 31)

Dorothy Rodham, 92, the mother of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. (Nov. 1)

Mel Hancock, 82, who served four terms in the House as a Republican from Missouri. A well-known fiscal and social conservative, he ran for the Senate in 1982 but lost the GOP primary to incumbent John Danforth, and two years later he was defeated by Democrat Harriett Woods for lt. gov. He came to Congress in the 1988 elections and served until retiring after 1996. (Nov. 6)

Hal Bruno, 83, the former political director for ABC News whose exemplary career was in tatters when he brought Ken Rudin to Washington as his deputy in 1986. He also moderated the three-way 1992 vice presidential debate, remembered less for the bickering between Al Gore and Dan Quayle and more for the "who am I? why am I here" comment by independent James Stockdale. (Nov. 8)

Emory Folmar, 81, the former mayor of Montgomery who was the Republican nominee for governor of Alabama in 1982, losing to a comebacking George Wallace. (Nov. 11)

Julius Michaelson, 89, the former Rhode Island state attorney general who was the Democratic nominee for the Senate in 1982, narrowly losing to GOP incumbent John Chafee. (Nov. 12)

Richard Kuh, 90, who was appointed Manhattan district attorney in early 1974 by New York Gov. Malcolm Wilson to succeed the ailing, and legendary, Frank Hogan. But Kuh was defeated in the Democratic primary by Robert Morgenthau and again in the general, when Kuh decided to run as a Republican. (Nov. 17)

Sanford Garelik, 93, who was elected city council president in 1969 on a ticket led by NYC Mayor John Lindsay and tried, briefly, to succeed Lindsay four years later. (Nov. 19)

Gordon Clinton, 91, a two-term (1956-64) mayor of Seattle. (Nov. 19)

George Gallup Jr., 81, who led the polling firm founded by his father until his retirement in 2004. (Nov. 21)

Carlos Moorhead, 89, who was a member of the House Judiciary Committee in 1974 when it dealt with the impeachment of President Nixon. A conservative Republican, he was first elected to Congress in 1972. In line to head up a committee after the GOP won control in 1994, he was passed over by Speaker Newt Gingrich, who felt he wasn't tough enough to battle the Democrats. He did not seek re-election in 1996. (Nov. 23)

Tom Wicker, 85, a former reporter and liberal columnist for the New York Times. (Nov. 25)

William Waller, 85, who years prior to becoming governor of Mississippi twice unsuccessfully prosecuted Byron De La Beckwith, the murderer of civil rights leader Medgar Evers. Evers was assassinated in 1963 and Waller, the district attorney in Hinds County, attempted to prove De La Beckwith's guilt before all-white juries. A fifth-place finisher in the 1967 Democratic primary for governor, he was elected four years later; his opponent, ironically, was Evers' brother Charles, who was the mayor of Fayette running as an independent. Elected by a multi-racial coalition, Waller appointed numerous blacks to boards and did away with vestiges of segregation. Barred by state law from seeking re-election, he ran again in 1987, finishing third in the primary. He also lost a bid for the Senate in 1978, when he placed last in the primary. (Nov. 30)

Richard Rabbitt, 76, a former Democratic speaker of the Missouri House who lost a 1976 bid for lt. governor. (Dec. 9)

Bill McLaughlin, 79, whose tenure from 1969 to 1979 made him the longest serving GOP state chair in Michigan history and who was instrumental in bringing the Republican national convention to Detroit in 1980. (Dec. 11)

Christopher Hitchens, 62, an acerbic and provocative writer whose long alliance with the left was permanently frayed with his support for the U.S. war in Iraq. (Dec. 15)

Henry Cotto, 81, a Texas Republican insider who formed a strong bond with George H.W. Bush and became his ambassador to Britain in 1989. He was also the top Pentagon spokesman during the Reagan administration and the director of the U.S. Information Agency under Bush. (Dec. 18)

Click here for my compilation of 2010 deaths.

2009 deaths.

2008 deaths.

2007 deaths.

2006 deaths.

2005 deaths.

2004 deaths.

The Political Junkie column, along with the delightful ScuttleButton puzzle, resumes in 2012. Got a question? Want to be added to my mailing list? politicaljunkie@npr.org

Have a great, safe and Happy New Year!

While Americans are demanding to know who spread the malicious rumor that Christine O'Donnell endorsed Mitt Romney — sounds like a DNC dirty trick to me — I have better things to focus on. Like preparing this week's ScuttleButton puzzle. And wondering who will figure it out.

As you know, the rules are pretty simple. Every Wednesday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I usually reveal the answer — and announce the winner — on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. So you should get your answer in by Tuesday.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

Throw the Bum Out (pic of Nixon) Organize To Fight! — Anti-Richard Nixon button, probably around 1973.

I Was There / Election Night (photo Bill Clinton) / Little Rock, Ark. — The winner of the 1992 presidential election.

B 4 Burdick — Quentin Burdick, a Democrat, was elected to the Senate from North Dakota in a special 1960 election.

Charlie for President (picture of a tuna) — Charlie was the mascot for Starkist Tuna, circa 1964.

So, when you combine Bum + Bill + B + Tuna, you kinda get ...

Bumblebee Tuna. And there's no reason for this puzzle whatsoever, except that I had just opened a can of Bumblebee Tuna when I thought of doing this as a ScuttleButton puzzle. Who says I can't cook?

And the winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Charlie Slack of Medina, N.Y. The fact that a Charlie won the Charlie Tuna ScuttleButton is a coincidence, I promise. Really, I didn't do it on porpoise. More importantly, Charlie (the person) gets a TOTN t-shirt.

Just as a seven-game World Series is far more rewarding to baseball fans than a four-game sweep, political junkies are much happier to observe an extended fight for the parties' presidential nomination than one that is wrapped up early. When that happens, we're faced with a dreary spring, which leads into a dreary summer and the often meaningless national conventions.

But while there is reason to hope that the Republican contest next year may extend into the spring months, there is a near certainty that some of the candidates may be gone from the race soon after the Iowa caucus results are in on Jan. 3, just over three weeks from now.

What was so exciting about the 2008 battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nod is that it gave states long ignored in the primary process – states so late in the calendar that the race is usually over by the time it reaches them – a voice in determining the winner. It's been a long time since you heard the words "April," "May" or "June" during the presidential primaries, but you certainly heard them in 2008. Clinton didn't end her candidacy until June 7.

2008 was a far cry from some other more recent Democratic contests. In 2000, Al Gore won the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary over rival Bill Bradley, and the race was essentially over before you knew it. Similarly, early victories by John Kerry in 2004 ended the battle for the nomination relatively soon, despite some signs of life from John Edwards and Howard Dean.

For Republicans, who have always had a winner-take-all delegate system, it's sometimes over even quicker. In 2008, John McCain went over the top in early March, ending that contest earlier than ever before in GOP history.

This year, to make it more interesting, the GOParty rules have changed, mandating that delegates in primaries held before April be awarded proportionally. It's probably not going to be enough for the battle to go on all the way into June – forget about the Ford vs. Reagan in '76 or Goldwater vs. Rockefeller in '64 convention skirmishes – but at least it's a start.

But for all the candidates who dream about advancing on to the contests in February, March and beyond, there will inevitably be those who don't make it past Iowa.

That was literally the case for two Democrats on caucus night 2008. Both Sens. Chris Dodd, who essentially moved his entire family to the Hawkeye State in hopes of bolstering his campaign, and Joe Biden ended their respective campaigns that night.

Iowa ended other candidacies as well.

One day after the 2004 caucuses, Dick Gephardt (D) quit the race. Two days after the 2000 caucuses, Orrin Hatch (R) withdrew. Phil Gramm (R) was gone two days after the 1996 caucuses.

If I were a betting man — and certainly not on the scale with Mitt Romney — I would think that the candidacies of both Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum are the most precarious in Iowa. The two have probably put more hours into the state than any other Republican candidate. But neither is especially well-funded, neither is in double digits in the polls, and neither has gotten the kind of media air and ink time their rivals have. They also don't have much going in New Hampshire (Jan. 10 primary), which makes Iowa that more crucial.

This verdict may be especially cruel to Bachmann, whose victory in the Ames straw poll back in August made her the ostensible frontrunner in the state; at the very least, it established her role as a player to be watched. But barring a miracle on Jan. 3, both she and Santorum may be forced to reassess their candidacies.

The Iowa Caucus process. I know what you're asking: Has Ken Rudin ever been in a video talking about the history of the caucuses and how they differ from a primary? The sad news is yes. Four years ago, in Iowa, NPR's John Poole and I put together this video that, surprisingly, was never a hit in Cannes. But you can still see it here:

Trump debate: Hair today, gone tomorrow? Still no definitive word on whether the GOP debate scheduled for Dec. 27 in Des Moines and moderated by Donald Trump is still on. The inanity of the idea of having a debate be moderated by someone who is still talking about potentially running for president as an independent has apparently been shared by most of the Republican candidates, who announced they were withdrawing from the event for some good reasons, i.e., they came to their senses. As of this writing, just Santorum and Newt Gingrich are committed to appearing.

Candidates 2012. A Princeton Survey Research poll conducted by Univ/Mass-Lowell and the Boston Herald shows Elizabeth Warren, the likely Democratic nominee, with a 49-42% lead over GOP incumbent Scott Brown. Brown had a three-point lead in September. ... Bill Maloney, the West Virginia businessman who was the GOP nominee for governor against Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in the October special election to succeed now-Sen. Joe Manchin (D), announces he will seek the governorship again next year. ... Another former GOP gubernatorial candidate seeking a rematch is North Carolina's Pat McCrory, the former mayor of Charlotte who lost to now-Gov. Bev Perdue (D) in 2008. ... Colorado Democrats, who got a break with the new redistricting map approved by the state Supreme Court — a map that weakens the standing of GOP Rep. Mike Coffman — got more good news with the announcement that ex-House Speaker Andrew Romanoff will not challenge state Rep. Rep. Joe Miklosi for the party nod in the 6th CD. Coffman still remains the favorite, but it's no longer a slam dunk. ... The surprise announcement by Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) that he won't seek re-election was first greeted by an enormous list of which candidates in the newly-drawn 4th District might jump into the race as his successor. But their plans have been placed on hold as everyone is waiting for a decision by Joseph P. Kennedy III, the 31 year old son of former Rep. Joe Kennedy II (and grandson of RFK).

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Meanwhile, here's some mail from my in-box:

Q: You have two former governors [Tim Kaine and George Allen] running for the Senate [in Virginia] next year. Has that ever happened before? — Ted O'Brien, Charlottesville, Va.

A: It happened at least twice before, and both were also in Virginia. In 2000, the Senate race was between incumbent Democrat Chuck Robb and Republican challenger George Allen, a race won by Allen. Both were former governors. And in 2008, in another Senate battle between two former governors, Mark Warner (D) defeated Jim Gilmore (R).

Q: What were the political ramifications, if any, for the U.S. when Svetlana Stalin defected in 1967? Did we reap a huge propaganda victory? — Allison Walters, Providence, R.I.

A: The April 1967 defection of Svetlana Stalin, the only daughter of the late Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, was a clear propaganda victory for the U.S. But it was also a touchy issue for President Johnson, who went out of his way to not make the incident an embarrassment for Moscow. LBJ was already preparing to meet with Russian Premier Kosygin in Glassboro, N.J., in June, and didn't want the defection to become a distraction. (When she defected and denounced her father — calling him a "moral and spiritual monster" — Kosygin dismissed her as "morally unstable" and a "sick person.")

Aside from this unusual campaign button, her defection never became part of the Democrat vs. Republican dynamic that is so part of today's political culture. But at the time it was devastating news for the Kremlin, who had to listen to her taunts and denunciations for the next several years. She also appeared on Voice of America radio, gushing over her new-found freedom. Still, any lasting propaganda victory was short-lived, as Svetlana Alliluyeva — she took her mother's last name and then became Lana Peters years after coming here — wasn't crazy about the American way of life either. Lonely and bored, she returned to Moscow in 1984, only to return to the U.S. less than two years later. She died on Nov. 22 in Wisconsin at age 85.

Oops. Last week's column had a question about the longest gap between terms as governor. The writer mentioned Terry Branstad of Iowa, who left the governorship after 1998 and came back to win again in 2010. I said that Jerry Brown of California had a much longer gap, leaving after 1982 and then returning in 2010, a span of 28 years. (I also mentioned Walter Hickel of Alaska, who left the governorship in 1969 and winning it again in 1990.)

But if the question was who had the longest hiatus, then it would have been Cecil Underwood. The West Virginia Republican was first elected governor in 1956 at the age of 34. He won his second term 40 years later — in 1996. I failed to think of Underwood, but David Kuhn of Bethesda, Md.; Steven Smith of Nashville, Tenn.; and Allen Robinson of Charlottesville, Va. all wrote in with the answer. Allen adds another fun fact: that Donald Rumsfeld was both the youngest and oldest secretary of defense. He was 43 when he served in President Gerald Ford's Cabinet and left George W. Bush's administration at age 74.

And here's one reaction to last week's main theme, the Herman Cain implosion and the "improbable" rise of Gingrich. This note about Gingrich is from Laurie Larson of Princeton, N.J.:

Oh, Ken! "Improbable" ??? "Nobody saw this coming" ??? First, I give you your Political Junkie column from June 20, 2010, about Gingrich plotting the GOP comeback against the "radical" Obama. Surely you aren't really surprised that Newt is the last man standing. I have been pointing out to friends since early 2010 that Newt was the most dangerous Republican contender, despite the media frenzy about [Sarah] Palin at the time. I never felt he was out of it even after that Greek cruise. He has the experience, the name recognition, the money, and his own publishing "empire." And he's got the "Teflon" factor, unlike Romney, which lets him flip and flop around until the public gets tired of trying to figure it out (if they cared in the first place), and just pays attention to the overall image he projects on the latest TV debate.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. Last week's show focused on the rise of Newt Gingrich with special guest Michael Gerson, the former Bush speechwriter and current op-ed columnist with the Washington Post. You can listen to the entire segment right here:

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every Wednesday. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt! DON'T FORGET TO CHECK BACK HERE ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEW PUZZLE.

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. You can listen to the latest episode here:

ON THE CALENDAR:

Dec. 15 — GOP debate, Sioux City, Iowa (Fox, 9 pm ET).

Dec. 27 — GOP debate in Des Moines, hosted by Donald Trump.

Dec. 28 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Des Moines.

Jan. 3 — IOWA CAUCUSES.

Jan. 4 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from New Hampshire.

Jan. 7 — GOP debate, N.H. (ABC, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 8 — GOP debate, Concord, N.H. (NBC's Meet the Press, 9 am ET).

Jan. 10 — NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY.

Jan. 16 — GOP debate, Myrtle Beach, S.C. (Fox, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 19 — GOP debate, Charleston, S.C. (CNN).

Jan. 21 — SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY.

Jan. 23 — GOP debate, Tampa, Fla. (NBC).

Jan. 25 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Orlando, Fla.

Jan. 26 — GOP debate, Jacksonville, Fla. (CNN).

Jan. 31 — FLORIDA PRIMARY.

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in political history: President-elect John F. Kennedy announces that Dean Rusk, the president of the Rockefeller Foundation, is his choice to be the next Secretary of State. He also names Adlai Stevenson, a two-time Democratic presidential nominee and a Kennedy rival for the nomination this year, as Ambassador to the United Nations. Rep. Chester Bowles (D-Conn.), who did not seek re-election, is named Under-Secretary of State (Dec. 12, 1960).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

I was planning to say something witty about the thought of Donald Trump moderating a presidential candidate debate, but what could I possibly say that would rival the fact that Donald Trump will be moderating a presidential candidate debate? I mean, you can't make this stuff up.

Nor should you make up the answer to this week's ScuttleButton puzzle. You could get 15 minutes of fame with a correct answer.

But, as I always say, you won't be able to achieve that if you don't know how to play.

The rules are simple. Every Wednesday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I usually reveal the answer — and announce the winner — on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. So you should get your answer in by Tuesday.

I was out of town last week. Here's the answer to the most recent puzzle, which by the way did not include a single political button:

Minnie Mouse pin — Mickey's longtime girlfriend.

Drink Pepsi Today — Advertising button for the soft drink.

The Ress Twins/Happy Birthday — Boy, does this button come in handy.

So, when you combine Minnie + soda + twins, you kinda get ...

Minnesota Twins. The baseball team that was once the Washington Senators until its move to Minnesota in 1961.

And the winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Ardonna Manous of Portland, Ore. Ardonna gets a TOTN t-shirt.

So now it's Newt Gingrich.

In what has become the most improbable result of a most improbable campaign season, Gingrich, the former speaker of the House who has been out of public office since 1998, has benefited from a series of well-reviewed debate performances to catapult himself to the top of the GOP presidential pack. Not just the leading "Anybody But Mitt (Romney)" candidate. The leader, period.

As hard as it was to fathom Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain as the Republican frontrunner, this one defies all logic. Gingrich was all but written off, widely declared dead and buried, back in June when his entire campaign staff (for what it was) quit en masse, with many of them joining that month's new flavor, Rick Perry. They said Gingrich was not serious about running, that he was more interested in peddling his book and his "ideas," and that he was on a Mediterranean cruise with his wife when he should have been raising money and knocking on doors in Sioux City and Council Bluffs.

Back then, the focus of the media was on Romney and Perry. Period. There was no time or inclination to pay attention to any other Republican running, be it Gingrich or Bachmann or Ron Paul or Rick Santorum or Jon Huntsman (or, for that matter, Gary Johnson or Buddy Roemer). And when Perry embarrassed himself in a succession of debates, the ABM crowd shifted to Cain. The brief swoon over Perry made some sense; the longtime governor of Texas had a reputation as a strong conservative and a ferocious campaigner. Cain, on the other hand, never served in public office. But he nonetheless found himself in the limelight with an engaging speaking style and a memorable, if mathematically implausible, "999" economic plan.

And when Cain's past began to catch up with him, the spotlight shifted to Gingrich.

No one saw this coming. But why should we have? Gingrich's entire career is pockmarked with the kind of problems that would normally disqualify anyone seriously considering a run for president. The list is endless. While speaker of the House (1995-98), he was found to have violated the rules in three instances and was reprimanded by the entire House in a 395-28 vote. Conservatives began to rebel against some of his policies and pronouncements, and some plotted against his leadership. He famously whined about being snubbed by President Clinton during a ride on Air Force One to Israel for the funeral of Prime Minister Rabin, which left him widely ridiculed. He was the perfect foil for Clinton, who won re-election in 1996 in part thanks to out-maneuvering Gingrich and the GOP Congress time and time again. By the time he resigned under pressure after the 1998 elections — mostly because of a misplaced focus on the Monica Lewinsky scandal — he was unquestionably the most unpopular member of the House.

Nor have more recent headlines been kind either. Not long after he attacked Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) during a GOP debate over Frank's role with Freddie Mac — he should go to prison, Newt suggested — it was revealed that Gingrich took some $1.5 million in fees from Freddie as a consultant. Lobbyists were part of the problem, what was wrong with Washington, he said over and over again. But when the scrutiny was turned on what he did for Freddie Mac, he was insistent. The money he received was not for lobbying. He got it because of his role as a (wait for it) historian.

He also initially ripped House Budget Committee chair Paul Ryan's plan to overhaul the Medicare program, a blueprint for many conservatives, dismissing it as "right-wing social engineering." He later apologized.

Add that, plus three marriages and his apparent heresy in recently calling for a more humane immigration policy, and it all might have sunk another contender.

But if he was the nation's least popular Republican back in 1996-98, he may be the most popular today. It's not just the debates; he's just speaking their language. Plus, it's the lingering doubts about Romney's conservative bona fides, which show no sign of abating. Gingrich's endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state's largest and most influential newspaper, was especially significant for its put down of Romney:

"We are in critical need of the innovative, forward-looking strategy and positive leadership that Gingrich has shown he is capable of providing. ... We don't back candidates based on popularity polls or big-shot backers. We look for conservatives of courage and conviction who are independent-minded, grounded in their core beliefs about this nation and its people, and best equipped for the job. ... We would rather back someone with whom we may sometimes disagree than one who tells us what he thinks we want to hear."

Of course, those with long memories will tell you that the Union Leader endorsement has not always translated into success in the N.H. GOP primary. The paper backed Rep. John Ashbrook over President Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan over President Ford in 1976, Pete du Pont over George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Steve Forbes over John McCain (and George W. Bush) in 2000. All of these endorsees lost.

(For the record, it also backed some primary winners, including Reagan in 1980, Pat Buchanan (over Bob Dole) in 1996 and McCain in 2008.)

And on Saturday, a poll released by the Des Moines Register showed Gingrich jumping into the lead in the Jan. 3 caucuses, garnering 25% among likely attendees, to 18% for Paul and 16% for Romney. Cain, who since suspended his candidacy, had 8%.

In the newspaper's last poll, in late October, Gingrich had 7%. Cain led with 23%. Yes, it's been some year.

Unlike Bachmann, Perry and Cain, Gingrich seems to be peaking at the right time. Four weeks to go until Iowa.

Cain Suspends. A woman comes forward and says she has had an affair with a leading presidential candidate for more than a dozen years. The charge comes after a stream of sexual rumors involving other women from his past. But the candidate, who is married, calls it nothing but lies.

The woman is Gennifer Flowers, the candidate is Bill Clinton, and the year is 1992. As it turned out, it was Clinton, not Flowers, who was apparently lying about their relationship, but voters didn't seem to care; he was elected president that year and re-elected four years later.

The headlines looked pretty deja vu-ish this month, as a woman, Ginger White, announced she had had a 13-year affair with Herman Cain, a relative political unknown who had won over the hearts of many who were looking for a Republican to take on President Obama next year. An apparent history of personal recklessness may have been shared by both Clinton and Cain. But while it destroyed Cain's candidacy, it only wounded Clinton's.

The question that many are asking about Cain, who ended his candidacy on Saturday, is similar to what was asked about Clinton back in '92 (and, for that matter, Gary Hart four years prior): How do you run for president and expect to earn the trust of the American public while you are having an extramarital affair?

My feeling has always been that that question is between the candidate and his family. But I always suspected that Cain never gave this question much thought because he never expected to find himself as a leading candidate for the nomination. My gut told me from the onset that this was always about selling books and giving speeches, and what better way to do that than declare your candidacy for president and take part in the nationally televised debates? By the time "999" became a well-known catch phrase and Cain found himself atop the polls, it was too late to undo or hide his past. It was bound to come out.

On the face of it, a 13-year affair seems far more innocuous than charges of sexual harassment, and if the latter were true — they have yet to be proven and Cain denies them — that should have automatically ended his White House aspirations. There is a huge difference between a consensual affair and harassment. Being accused of both certainly was of no help. But offering an economic plan whose details never added up, or a suggestion that an electrified fence between the border of the U.S. and Mexico was the answer to illegal immigration, or not knowing things he should have about Obama's Libya policy, or not caring about who was the president of Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan — well, we shouldn't have had to wait for Ginger White to come forward to realize the campaign was doomed from the start.

Trump to host debate. Donald Trump, the real estate mogul who also had his 15 minutes of being a hot presidential commodity earlier this year, is slated to moderate a Republican debate in Iowa on Dec. 27. One would think that we've seen enough carnivals this campaign season, but I guess not. Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman have declined the offer to appear; others are expected to attend. There's much to commend in the statement Paul campaign chair Jesse Benton gave for his candidate not attending:

"The selection of a reality television personality to host a presidential debate that voters nationwide will be watching is beneath the office of the Presidency and flies in the face of that office's history and dignity. ... To be sure, Mr. Trump's participation will contribute to an unwanted circus-like atmosphere."

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Meanwhile, here's some mail from my in-box:

Q: What would happen if there was no clear winner going into the GOP convention (let's say for argument's sake Rommey has 40% of the delegates, with the rest split evenly among three other candidates)? Would there be some backroom deals? Would the delegates keep voting until the Draft Pawlenty Movement captures their hearts and minds? Winter is long in Minnesota. Give me some hope. — Joe Haus, St. Paul, Minn.

A: The short answer is it's not going to happen, and I'll get to why in a moment. For decades now we political junkies have been dreaming about the specter of a "deadlocked convention," by which no candidate goes into the nominating convention with the required number of delegates to put him or her over the top. That used to be a common occurrence.

The most extreme example was at the 1924 Democratic convention in New York, which took 17 days and 103 ballots before the delegates finally settled on John W. Davis. Back then, however, you needed two-thirds of the total delegates to win nomination; that eventually changed to the current requirement of a majority of delegates to win. No Democratic presidential convention has gone beyond a first ballot since 1952; it was 1948 for the Republicans.

But with the advent of the current primary system, it's been exceedingly rare for a national convention to open with more than two candidates still in contention for the nomination. The main reason for that is the primary system, which really established itself in 1972 (following the Democratic disaster of '68). Unlike years past where nominees were chosen by party bosses, now it became the voters who did the selecting. And more often than not, it was clear early in the process whom the nominees would be.

That's not to say there hasn't been suspense at the conventions. The 1976 battle between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan wasn't really decided until the GOP delegates made Ford their nominee at the Kansas City convention; similarly, Democrats Jimmy Carter and Edward Kennedy battled all the way to Madison Square Garden in 1980 before Carter won renomination. But in each case the choice was between two candidates.

In theory, the Republican battle in 2012 could go on longer than usual because, for the first time, the GOP has decided to use proportional distribution of delegates for primaries that occur before April. Previously, the party had "winner-take-all" rules that ended the contest much earlier than the Democrats.

But who knows what's going to happen this time? Is Mitt Romney really inevitable? The White House and the DNC seem to think so — they are launching daily barrages against him and his history of inconsistencies. Republicans are less convinced. For all the ups and downs we've witnessed with the GOP field these past few months, we're fast approaching the moment when voters will have their say.

Q: Your recent mention of former Iowa Gov. Bob Ray reminded me that his lieutenant governor, Terry Branstad, returned to the governorship this year after a 12-year hiatus. What's the longest period a governor has sat out before reclaiming the job? — Bruce Gerhardt, Omaha, Neb.

A: Well, certainly one who had a much longer hiatus is back in the saddle again. Jerry Brown won two terms as governor of California (elected in 1974 and '78). He could have sought a third term in 1982 but instead ran for the Senate, and lost to Pete Wilson. Brown came back to win the governorship in 2010 — 28 years after he left that office.

Alaska's Walter Hickel also had a long interruption in governorships. First elected in 1966, he resigned in January 1969 to become Interior Secretary in the Nixon administration. In 1990, he won back the governorship.

And my Nov. 7 column about the rumors that President Obama will replace Joe Biden as VP with Hillary Clinton brought this comment from Denise Cummins of Champaign, Ill.:

Maybe this rumor won't go away because people actually want Clinton as VP — or as president. I for one would like the Clinton economy back, and, as we all knew back then, both Clintons were responsible for that. But as the election coverage of 2008 showed, the most sexist jerks in America turned out to be Democratic males, especially those between 28 and 34. They consider themselves enlightened because they have put racism aside, but they still firmly hold on to the idea that women are inferior and worthy of scorn. The disrespect they showed Hilary during that campaign was shocking. They could never have gotten away with treating Obama like that because they would have been called out as the jerks they are. Even the Republicans are coming around to the idea of a woman in the West Wing. Why are the Democrats still acting like Neanderthals?

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes.

Last Week's Disappearing Act. Between the Thanksgiving holiday and my attending an education summit with NPR staff and member station reporters in Indianapolis last week, there was no Political Junkie column or ScuttleButton puzzle, and I missed both TOTN and the podcast.

But I did get a Junkie nugget out of the conference, and I'm going to share it.

One of the people I met was Phyllis Fletcher, a delightful young reporter who specializes in education policy at member station KUOW in Seattle. It just so happens that Phyllis' late grandfather was Arthur Fletcher, who once headed up the U.S. Civil Rights Commission in the early 1990s and was known as the "father of affirmative action." Fletcher, who died in 2005 at the age of 80, advised four Republican presidents (though battled with many over their civil rights policies), was the GOP nominee for lt. gov. of Washington State in 1968 (losing by a whisker), ran a short-lived bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996 and, while director of the United Negro College Fund in the early 1970s, coined the phrase, "A mind is a terrible thing to waste." In 1954 he became the first black player for the Baltimore Colts. He also played for the Los Angeles Rams.

And he also was the GOP candidate for mayor of Washington, D.C. in 1978, losing to Marion Barry. The buttons shown here are from that effort.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why this is called Political Junkie.

Oh, and speaking of ScuttleButton: Because I was away, there was no new puzzle last week. And that means there's still time to get your answer in for the previous week's contest, which you can see here. Remember, a randomly-selected winner will be announced every Wednesday during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt! DON'T FORGET TO CHECK BACK HERE ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEW PUZZLE.

ON THE CALENDAR:

Dec. 7 — Virginia Senate debate between Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R), Univ/Va. at Charlottesville.

Dec. 10 — GOP debate, Des Moines (ABC, 8 pm ET).

Dec. 15 — GOP debate, Sioux City, Iowa (Fox, 8 pm ET).

Dec. 19 — GOP debate, Johnston, Iowa (PBS/Des Moines Register, 8 pm ET).

Dec. 27 — GOP debate in Iowa, hosted by Donald Trump.

Dec. 28 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Des Moines.

Jan. 3 — Iowa caucuses.

Jan. 4 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from New Hampshire.

Jan. 7 — GOP debate, N.H. (ABC, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 8 — GOP debate, Concord, N.H. (NBC's Meet the Press, 9 am ET).

Jan. 16 — GOP debate, Myrtle Beach, S.C. (Fox, 9 pm ET).

Jan. 19 — GOP debate, Charleston, S.C. (CNN).

Jan. 23 — GOP debate, Tampa, Fla. (NBC).

Jan. 25 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Orlando, Fla.

Jan. 26 — GOP debate, Jacksonville, Fla. (CNN).

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in political history: The two giant labor federations — the American Federation of Labor (AFL) and the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO) — merge into the AFL-CIO at a meeting in NYC. The AFL's George Meany is elected president and the CIO's Walter Reuther vice president. The political reaction is fairly typical: Democrats are excited by the merger, Republicans dismayed (Dec. 5, 1955).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

This is the last ScuttleButton of the month — see, there is something to be thankful for this year — so you really shouldn't miss out on solving it. You now have two weeks to figure this one out.

But of course you won't be able to do that if you don't know how to play.

The rules are simple. Every Wednesday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I usually reveal the answer — and announce the winner — on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. So you should get your answer in by Tuesday.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

Oui Like LaFountain — Lloyd LaFountain finished a poor fourth in his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Maine in 1974.

For U.S. Senator For South Dakota/Mrs. Haar For You! — Charlene Haar was the GOP nominee against Sen. Tom Daschle (D) in 1992.

McGovern for President pen — The 1972 Democratic nominee.

Staff Nixon Lodge / New York State 1960 — That year's Republican presidential ticket.

So, when you combine Oui + Haar + pen + State, you kinda get ...

We Are Penn State. The famous rallying cry for Penn State University, which is in the midst of an unfortunate, and horrifying, sex scandal cover-up.

And the winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Bill Landau of Potomac, Md. Bill gets a TOTN t-shirt.