Election 2010

Forecast: Republicans Will Take The House, But Not By Much

House Minority Leader John Boehner at a rally in Canton, Ohio, on Oct. 30, 2010.

House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner, R-OH, ta a campaign event in Canton, Ohio, on Saturday. Matt Sullivan/Getty hide caption

toggle caption Matt Sullivan/Getty

Four years after being booted out of power, and two years after their ranks were further decimated, Republicans are primed to take back control of the House of Representatives.

Pelosi and Boehner buttons

Who'd a thunk it?  A complete role reversal in four years. hide caption

toggle caption

The current makeup of the Houe is 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, with two vacancies, one from each party.

My district-by-district analysis of all 435 House races shows the GOP winning more than the 39 seats to make John Boehner speaker.  But how much more?

There are new forecasts of a Republican blowout, perhaps eclipsing what occurred in 1994, when the GOP picked up a net of 52 seats — and gave them their first majority in 40 years.  If that does occur on Tuesday, then these numbers will look pretty silly.

Nonetheless, I have Republicans winning 45 seats from the Democrats and losing four, for a net gain of 41 — much lower than other calculations.  Here are the seats that I think will switch:

NPR's Final 'Election Scorecard' Forecasts

Latest House and Senate forecasts

For more, check out the detailed Scorecard ratings.

AL 02Martha Roby (R) ousts freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D).

AZ 01Paul Gosar (R) ousts freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).

AZ 05David Schweikert (R) ousts Rep. Harry Mitchell (D).

AZ 08Jesse Kelly (R) ousts Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D).

AR 01Rick Crawford (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Marion Berry (D), who is retiring.

AR 02Tim Griffin (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Vic Snyder (D), who is retiring.

CA 11David Harmer (R) ousts Rep. Jerry McNerney (D).

CO 04Cory Gardner (R) ousts freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D).

DE ALJohn Carney (D) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Mike Castle (R), who sought the GOP Senate nomination.

FL 02Steve Southerland (R) ousts Rep. Allen Boyd (D).

FL 08Dan Webster (R) ousts freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D).

FL 24Sandy Adams (R) ousts freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D).

HI 01Colleen Hanabusa (D) ousts freshman Rep. Charles Djou (R).

IL 10Dan Seals (D) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who is running for the Senate.

IL 11Adam Kinzinger (R) ousts freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D).

IL 14Randy Hultgren (R) ousts Rep. Bill Foster (D).

IN 03Marlin Stutzman (R) wins the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Souder (R), who resigned in May.  Because this is a vacant seat, it counts as a GOP pickup.

IN 08Larry Bucshon (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), who is running for the Senate.

IN 09Todd Young (R) ousts Rep. Baron Hill (D).

KS 03Kevin Yoder (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Dennis Moore (D), who is retiring.

LA 02Cedric Richmond (D) ousts freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).

LA 03Jeff Landry (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), who is running for the Senate.

MD 01Andy Harris (R) ousts freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D).

MI 01Dan Benishek (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Bart Stupak (D), who is retiring.

MI 07 — Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) ousts freshman Rep. Mark Schauer (D).

MS 01Alan Nunnelee (R) ousts Rep. Travis Childers (D).

NV 03Joe Heck (R) ousts freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D).

NH 01Frank Guinta (R) ousts Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).

NH 02 — Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Paul Hodes (D), who is running for the Senate.

NJ 03Jon Runyan (R) ousts freshman Rep. John Adler (D).

NM 02 — Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) ousts freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D).

NY 29Tom Reed (R) wins the seat vacated in March by Rep. Eric Massa (D).

NC 08Harold Johnson (R) ousts freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D).

ND ALRick Berg (R) ousts Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D).

OH 01 — Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) ousts freshman Rep. Steve Driehaus (D).

OH 15Steve Stivers (R) ousts freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D).

PA 03Mike Kelly (R) ousts freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D).

PA 07Pat Meehan (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak (D), who is running for the Senate.

PA 08 — Former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) ousts Rep. Patrick Murphy (D).

PA 11Lou Barletta (R) ousts Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D).

TN 06Diane Black (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Bart Gordon (D), who is retiring.

TN 08Steve Fincher (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. John Tanner (D), who is retiring.

TX 17Bill Flores (R) ousts Rep. Chet Edwards (D).

VA 02Scott Rigell (R) ousts freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D).

VA 05Robert Hurt (R) ousts freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D).

WA 03Jaime Herrera (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Brian Baird (D), who is retiring.

WV 01David McKinley (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Alan Mollohan (D), who was defeated for renomination in the Democratic primary.

WI 07Sean Duffy (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. David Obey (D), who is retiring.

WI 08Reid Ribble (D) ousts Rep. Steve Kagen (D).



Please keep your community civil. All comments must follow the NPR.org Community rules and terms of use, and will be moderated prior to posting. NPR reserves the right to use the comments we receive, in whole or in part, and to use the commenter's name and location, in any medium. See also the Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Community FAQ.

NPR thanks our sponsors

Become an NPR sponsor

Support comes from