NPR logo Brazil Will Win The World Cup. Bankers Said So.

Brazil Will Win The World Cup. Bankers Said So.

Financial analysts are engaging in a bit of escapism this spring. Analysts at JP Morgan, Danske Bank, UBS and others have momentarily turned their attention away from the markets to predict the winner of this year's World Cup.

Three out of four big banks that chose a winner picked Brazil, the Financial Times reports.

Danske seems to be taking the econ/soccer comparison a bit too far: They predict a Germany versus Brazil final and write that "as in 'real life' the Emerging Market nation will beat the developed nation."

For our readers who think Planet Money needs to use more ridiculous equations, here's the model the Danish bank used to predict the winner:

The measurements are all about relative strength. The GDP variable, for example, measures GDP per capita relative to the U.S. For those of you keeping score at home, the "Ballon d' Ore nominee" variable attempts to measure the presence of a "superstar" on the team. Very scientific stuff. There's a complete explanation on p. 4 of this PDF.

world cup formula

Think you come up with a better formula for victory? What variables did Danske leave out? Leave us your ideas in the comments section.

Update: Thanks to the commenter who pointed out that the original headline on this post was missing the word "win."