NPR Poll: Congressional Battleground

To gauge what voters are thinking in House districts where surveys show the races will likely be tight in November and a switch in party control is possible, Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a poll of 1,200 "likely" voters in 60 battleground districts that elected Democrats in 2008 (one of the seats is vacant) and 10 districts now represented by Republicans. The full poll, including the list of battleground districts, is here.

Attitude Toward Incumbents

Do you approve or disapprove of the way [your incumbent House representative] is handling [his or her] job as a member of the U.S. Congress? (Skipped if open seat)

Margin of error: +/- 3.5 percentage points
[Graph]
 

As you may know, there will be an election for your representative to Congress in November this year. Do you think you will definitely vote to re-elect [your incumbent House representative] to Congress, probably vote to re-elect [your incumbent House representative], probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else? (Skipped if open seat)

Democratic Incumbent
Margin of error: +/- 4 percentage points
[Graph]
Republican Incumbent
Margin of error: +/- 6.5 percentage points
[Graph]
 

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. (Skipped if open seat)

I WON'T vote to re-elect [my incumbent House representative] because we need new people who will fix Washington and get things done.

I WILL vote to re-elect [my incumbent House representative] because [he or she] is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us.

 
Margin of error: +/- 3.5 percentage points

Democrats vs. Republicans

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)?

Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points

Note

Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

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