Manpreet Romana/AFP/Getty Images
The leaking of classified documents related to the Afghanistan war is unlikely to affect the course of events on the ground.
The leaking of classified documents related to the Afghanistan war is unlikely to affect the course of events on the ground. Manpreet Romana/AFP/Getty Images
Andrew J. Bacevich is professor of history and international relations at Boston University. He is the author of, most recently, Washington Rules: America's Path to Permanent War.
Based on initial press reports, the leaking of "90,000 classified documents" related to the Afghanistan war doesn't really tell us much that we don't already know. Our Afghan partners are less than reliable. Nation-building is a painstakingly slow enterprise. At least some Pakistanis are playing a double game. NATO forces continue to kill non-combatants, despite universal acknowledgment that doing so alienates the people whose affections we are desperate to win. The insurgents are on the march. Who, if anyone, is likely to find any of this news? Does it come as a shocking revelation to learn that U. S. special operations forces are conducting secret raids aimed at eliminating Taliban leaders?
The leaks are unlikely to affect the course of events on the ground. However, they may well affect the debate over the war here at home. In that regard, the effect is likely to be pernicious, intensifying the already existing inclination to focus on peripheral matters while ignoring vastly more important ones. For months on end, Washington has fixated on this question: what, oh what, are we to do about Afghanistan? Implicit in the question are at least two assumptions: first, that something must be done; and, second, that if the United States and its allies can just devise the right approach (or assign the right general), then surely something can be done.
Both assumptions are highly dubious. To indulge them is to avoid the question that should rightly claim Washington's attention: What exactly is the point of the Afghanistan war? The point cannot be to "prevent another 9/11," since violent anti-Western jihadists are by no means confined to or even concentrated in Afghanistan. Even if we were to "win" in Afghanistan tomorrow, the jihadist threat would persist. If anything, staying in Afghanistan probably exacerbates that threat. So tell me again: why exactly are we there?
The real significance of the Wikileaks action is of a different character altogether: it shows how rapidly and drastically the notion of "information warfare" is changing. Rather than being defined as actions undertaken by a government to influence the perception of reality, information warfare now includes actions taken by disaffected functionaries within government to discredit the officially approved view of reality. This action is the handiwork of subversives, perhaps soldiers, perhaps civilians. Within our own national security apparatus, a second insurgent campaign may well have begun. Its purpose: bring America's longest war to an end. Given the realities of the digital age, this second insurgency may well prove at least as difficult to suppress as the one that preoccupies General Petraeus in Kabul.