NPR Poll: Congressional Battlegrounds

Surveys and news reports show there are now nearly 100 "battleground" House districts where the races are likely to be tight on Election Day (Nov. 2). That's up from about 70 battlegrounds in June. The vast majority of those seats are now held by Democrats. To get a feel for what the districts' voters are thinking, NPR engaged Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies (complete results here). They surveyed 1,200 "likely voters" for the latest NPR Congressional Battleground Poll. A similar survey done for NPR in June signaled problems ahead for Democrats. This latest poll does as well, though the advantage for Republicans has narrowed slightly. Note: The survey was done of "land-line" users only. Calls were not made to cell phone users. Public Opinion Strategies' Glen Bolger says that could mean some younger, possibly Democratic-leaning voters were missed.

Attitude Toward Incumbents

Do you approve or disapprove of the way [YOUR INCUMBENT HOUSE REPRESENTATIVE] is handling [his or her] job as a member of the U.S. Congress? (Skipped if open seat)

Democratic Incumbent
Margin of error: +/- 3.56 percentage points
[Graph]
Republican Incumbent
Margin of error: +/- 6.76 percentage points
[Graph]
 

Do you think that (HOUSE INCUMBENT NAME) has performed (his/her job) as (congressman/congresswoman) well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance to do a better job? (Skipped if open seat)

Democratic Incumbent
Margin of error: +/- 3.56 percentage points
[Graph]
Republican Incumbent
Margin of error: +/- 6.76 percentage points
[Graph]
 

Now, I am going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. (Skipped if open seat)

I won't vote to re-elect (HOUSE INCUMBENT NAME) because we need new people who will fix Washington and get things done.

I will vote to re-elect (HOUSE INCUMBENT NAME) because (he/she) is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us.

 
Margin of error: Overall: +/- 3.15 percentage points; Democratic districts: +/- 3.56; Republican districts: +/- 6.76%

Attitude Toward Democratic Incumbents: June Vs. October

If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote: (ROTATE) (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE NAME), Republican or (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE NAME), Democrat? (Results shown reflect only Democratic-held districts that were surveyed in both June and October.)

October 2010
[Graph]
 

Note

Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

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