SCHIP Ad Campaign Has an Uphill Battle

October 5, 2007

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October 5, 2007

Democrats and advocacy groups are launching a multimillion-dollar effort to win enough votes in the House of Representatives to override President Bush's veto of a bill to expand the State Children's Health Insurance Program. But demographics and politics make it a nearly impossible task.

ROBERT SIEGEL, host:

This is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED from NPR News. I'm Robert Siegel.

MICHELE NORRIS, host:

And I'm Michele Norris.

Backers of a bill to expand the State Children's Health Insurance Program or SCHIP are working against the clock to override President Bush's veto. They have until October 18th to round up enough votes in the House. They have a campaign strategy, a big war chest, and a majority of the public on their side, according to recent polls. And they only need to change a dozen or so Republican votes to get the needed two-thirds majority.

But as NPR's Julie Rovner reports, the odds of reaching that goal remain extremely long.

JULIE ROVNER: President Bush says he vetoed the bill to add $35 billion to the popular children's health program in part because it costs too much. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel, in a preview of Democrats' rhetorical strategy last week, pounced on that.

Representative RAHM EMANUEL (Democrat, Illinois): I do agree with the President. We do have excessive spending. We have excessive spending in the war in Iraq. One day of the war in Iraq would give 250,000 children health care in the United States. One week, the war in Iraq would give 1.7 million children health care in the United States.

ROVNER: Backers of the bill will get that message out with the help of a long list of advocacy groups led by labor unions with deep pockets. They're targeting roughly 50 Republican House members whose votes they hope they might be able to reverse on the override attempt. Television and radio ads will start airing next week.

And in a conference call with reporters this morning, Alan Charney of USAction said his group plans a more personal touch in the targeted districts as well.

Mr. ALAN CHARNEY (Program Director, USAction): Next week, we'll be planning to have activities outside of their offices with children and with red wagons with the theme: don't hitch your wagon to George Bush. Hitch your wagon for the kids of America.

ROVNER: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is, at the same time, launching its own raft of drive-time radio ads. It's targeting eight Republicans it considers vulnerable in the next election. This one is aimed at Michigan freshman Tim Walberg.

(Soundbite of advertisement)

Unidentified Woman: …of kids, Congressman Walberg has a simple choice - give 10 million children the health care they need or turn his back on those children.

ROVNER: Still, despite the heavy artillery, House Republicans who oppose the bill, like Joe Barton of Texas, remain confident they'll prevail in the end.

Representative JOE BARTON (Republican, Texas): In the history of the republic, there have been about twenty-five hundred vetoes. Only 106 of those vetoes have been overridden. This will not be the 107th. Whenever we get to the veto, we will sustain the veto.

ROVNER: And Barton is most likely right, says David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.

Professor DAVID ROHDE (Political Science, Duke University): Most of the Republicans who would have been affected by this kind of campaign already have voted for SCHIP and will vote to override.

ROVNER: Forty-five Republicans voted for the bill the President just vetoed. That includes most of the chamber's moderates, as well as Republicans from districts considered up for grabs between the parties. What that leaves, Rohde says, are the very safest Republican districts.

Prof. ROHDE: Districts that are more tilted in favor of the Republican Party and more made up of conservative voters and that remaining small segment of the country that thinks that the president's doing a good job.

ROVNER: And the math is pretty simple. There are more than enough of those Republicans to sustain the veto. Republicans need only 145 votes to ensure the bill doesn't become law. The last time the House voted, they had 159. That's not going to stop backers of the bill from trying, though.

Julie Rovner, NPR News, Washington.

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