Election 2008

Attention Turns to New Hampshire

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With the Iowa caucuses behind them, presidential candidates have headed to New Hampshire for some last-minute campaigning. Alex Chadwick and Madeleine Brand discuss Tuesday's primaries with NPR Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving and Kevin Landrigan, senior political reporter at the Nashua Telegraph, in New Hampshire.

After Iowa's Surprises, Focus Shifts to N.H.

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Sen. Hillary Clinton i

Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton greets supporters Friday in Nashua, N.H. Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images hide caption

toggle caption Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images
Sen. Hillary Clinton

Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton greets supporters Friday in Nashua, N.H.

Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images
Mitt Romney visits a diner in Portsmouth, N.H. i

Republican presidential hopeful and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney visits a diner Friday in Portsmouth, N.H. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images hide caption

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Mitt Romney visits a diner in Portsmouth, N.H.

Republican presidential hopeful and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney visits a diner Friday in Portsmouth, N.H.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Just hours after Iowans handed caucus victories to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, presidential candidates quickly turned their attention to Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

A poll conducted in New Hampshire before the Iowa caucuses and released on Friday showed New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Obama, 32 percent to 26 percent among Democrats. It also showed Sen. John McCain leading the pack among Republicans.

Both the Republican and Democratic candidates are now blanketing the Granite State in anticipation of Saturday's back-to-back debates, with only five days left until the primary. Even Huckabee's previously impoverished campaign chartered a plane from Iowa to New Hampshire, after months of flying coach between campaign stops. GOP candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney touched down in New Hampshire at 3:30 a.m. Friday, while Clinton arrived with her daughter and husband in tow.

The candidates will face different challenges in New Hampshire. Granite State residents pride themselves on their independence. One indication came in 2000, when independent voters were largely responsible for McCain's victory in the Republican primary, when he beat then-Gov. George W. Bush, 48 percent to 30 percent.

New Hampshire also has a smaller base of evangelical voters than does Iowa, where they accounted for at least 60 percent of Huckabee's supporters.

On the Democratic side, the latest polls show Obama within striking distance of Clinton, trailing her by six percentage points. But the Clintons have a special bond with New Hampshire voters: Then-Gov. Bill Clinton spent months campaigning there in 1992, finishing a close second to Paul Tsongas and proclaiming himself "the Comeback Kid."

Clinton reminded New Hampshire voters of her husband's legacy at a campaign stop Friday morning, saying, "We have learned before it has taken a Clinton to clean up after a Bush."

For the Republicans, New Hampshire polls indicate a close race between McCain and Romney. Like McCain, Romney is a familiar face there, having previously served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts. All this could slow Huckabee's momentum after the Iowa caucuses, especially since his campaign has not been as well funded as those of the other front-runners.

Huckabee has been running third or fourth in New Hampshire polls, but the national chairman of Huckabee's campaign, Chip Saltzman, says Huckabee will try to appeal to fiscal conservatives by touting his economic record as the former governor of Arkansas.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who put a tremendous amount of time and effort into Iowa, finished second among Democrats there. With far less money than his two more celebrated rivals, Edwards faces much stiffer odds in New Hampshire. He told NPR Friday morning that he still sees himself as a contender in the race.

"I still finished a strong second to the Clinton political machine," he said. "It proves that people care what you stand for, as opposed to how much money you raise."

Two other Democratic senators from the East Coast fared so poorly in Iowa that they dropped out — Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joe Biden of Delaware. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico didn't finish much better than they did, but has vowed to continue his campaign.

New Hampshire primary voters do not typically fall in line with their Iowan counterparts on the Republican side. George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole in 1988 and 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000 were Iowa caucus winners who then lost in New Hampshire. Conversely, the third-place Iowa finisher in 1988 — the senior Bush — went on to win the New Hampshire primary.

Democrats have a similar mixed record, though lately — in 2000 and 2004 — the Iowa winners went on to win in New Hampshire as well.

From NPR staff reports and the Associated Press

Obama, Huckabee Triumph in Iowa

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With his wife, Ann,  Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney waves to supporters.

With his wife, Ann, by his side, Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney waves to supporters after speaking at his after-caucus party in Des Moines, Iowa, on Thursday. Romney placed second in the caucuses, finishing behind Mike Huckabee. LM Otero/Getty Images hide caption

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Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has won the GOP Iowa caucuses, while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama won on the Democratic side. Both victories represent the triumph of insurgent candidates over their more established rivals.

Huckabee, an ordained Baptist preacher, rode a wave of support from evangelical Christians to victory Thursday night, while Obama's message of change resonated with many Democrats.

It's a remarkable win for Huckabee, who was little more than an asterisk in the race for the Republican nomination just a few months ago. The question is whether he can prevail outside friendly Iowa territory, and go the distance to the nomination.

Obama, meanwhile, broke out of a neck-and-neck contest with his main Democratic rivals, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Yet Obama, who campaigned as an apostle of change in Washington, was gaining 38 percent support among Democrats. Edwards, who ran promising to battle the special interests in the capital, drew about 30 percent, while Clinton, who stressed her experience, came in at about 29 percent.

Obama, speaking to his supporters, called his victory in Iowa a "defining moment in history."

"Our time for change has come," he said to thunderous applause. "We are choosing hope over fear; we are choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America."

Both Obama and Huckabee can expect a windfall in terms of media attention and campaign donations, thanks to their victories in Iowa.

The Faith Factor

For many Republican caucus participants, faith was a determining factor. More than eight in 10 Huckabee supporters said they are born-again or evangelical Christians, compared with less than half of those who supported his rival Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Nearly two-thirds of Huckabee backers also said it was very important that their candidate share their religious beliefs, compared with about one in five of Romney's.

"I never thought I could love a state more than my home state of Arkansas, but tonight I love Iowa a whole lot," Huckabee told a crowd of cheering supporters.

If the mood was one of elation at Huckabee's headquarters, things were certainly more somber at the headquarters for Romney, who spent a great deal of time and a huge amount of money in Iowa — including about $17 million of his own money.

Romney, who finished second in Iowa, now turns his attention to New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Jan. 8. There, his campaign will be appealing to much more fiscally conservative voters, rather than the social conservatives who dominated the GOP Iowa caucuses. Evangelical conservatives are thought to account for at least one-third — and perhaps as much as 40 percent — of all Republican caucus-goers in Iowa.

Strong Turnout Among Democrats

Preliminary results from an Associated Press survey of Iowa voters shed some light on the Obama victory. About half of Democrats said their candidate's ability to bring about needed change was the most important factor in making their decision, and change was Obama's calling card during the campaign. About one-fifth of Democrats said experience — Clinton's mantra — was most important.

On the Democratic side, a record 236,000 people participated in the caucuses, with many first-time caucus-goers and independents showing up. In 2004, 124,000 Democrats attended the caucuses. Attendance was lower among Republicans, with roughly 116,000 caucus participants.

Edwards came in second, earning 30 percent to Obama's 38 percent, similar to his performance in the 2004 Iowa caucuses. Then, he won 32 percent of the vote, second to Sen. John Kerry's 38 percent. Edwards has been campaigning in Iowa heavily since his vice presidential campaign ended four years ago.

Speaking after the polls closed, Edwards continued to hammer out his populist message, "The one thing that is clear is that the status quo lost, and change won," he said before repeating a familiar refrain — deriding corporate greed in America.

Speaking to her supporters, Clinton put on a brave face on what was clearly a disappointing finish. "I am so ready for the rest of this campaign," Clinton said to thunderous chants of "Hillary, Hillary, Hillary." She repeated a vow that, if elected, she would end the war in Iraq.

Biden, Dodd Drop Out

The Iowa caucuses typically involve a small number of caucus-goers — in 2000, the last time both parties held caucuses, about 145,000 people turned out. This year, more than 220,000 Democrats and 116,000 Republicans participated.

The Iowa contests are considered a crucial step on the road to the White House and are all about momentum.

The results in Iowa, along with those in the New Hampshire primary five days later, will help winnow down the number of candidates. Already, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden are abandoning their campaigns for the Democratic presidential nomination after poor showings in the Iowa caucuses.

Defeat in Iowa or New Hampshire, though, does not necessarily spell the end of a candidacy. In 1988, for example, Democrat Michael Dukakis lost in Iowa, and in 2000, George W. Bush failed to win New Hampshire's Republican primary.

Looking Beyond Iowa

"Don't count Clinton and Edwards out yet," said Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. "I still think you're looking at a three-way race."

Both Clinton and Romney have the financial resources to weather the many primaries that lie ahead. Obama, too, has deep pockets, thanks to tens of millions of dollars in campaign contributions. Edwards, however, has much shallower pockets, and he is relying on matching public funds to finance his campaign.

Not all contenders were focused on Iowa.

Republican Rudolph Giuliani, who did not contest in Iowa but who has been leading nationally, was in Florida on Thursday, making a bid for that state's nomination when it holds its primary Jan. 29. The former New York City mayor is still considered a contender in future primaries.

Meanwhile, Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain has focused much of his efforts on New Hampshire, which he won in 2000, defeating then-Gov. George W. Bush by 16 points. In a sense, Huckabee's Iowa triumph is a boon for McCain because it weakens Romney, McCain's main rival in the Granite State.



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