Kerry and Obama, the Wine Men

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MADELEINE BRAND, host:

This is DAY TO DAY. I'm Madeleine Brand.

ALEX CHADWICK, host:

I'm Alex Chadwick.

Political developments in this country. The candidates have actually had two full nights' sleep and a day to think about what happened in New Hampshire.

We're joined again by Slate chief political correspondent John Dickerson.

John, welcome back. And political news today. Bill Richardson is getting out of the Democratic race, and former presidential nominee John Kerry is endorsing Barack Obama. Which of these two is the political lead today?

Mr. JOHN DICKERSON (Slate.com): I think maybe the Kerry endorsement is the political lead for two reasons. One, there's this distinction in the Democratic field - perhaps a bad one, but nevertheless one that people use between the beer candidates and the wine candidates, those that appeal to the blue collar regular folk and those that appeal to the elites. John Kerry is a one candidate and so is Barack Obama. Some people have seen that as one of Obama's weaknesses; being endorsed by another member of that tribe is maybe not great. He needs an endorsement from a beer candidate.

Having said that, he's just gotten two important union endorsements in Nevada, which gives him credentials with working class folk. And John Kerry does have connections.

CHADWICK: So as he goes forward, he's got quite a prospect ahead of him. So does Senator Clinton. How are they focusing their campaigns now?

Mr. DICKERSON: Well, Clinton is focusing her campaign first on this idea that she found her voice in New Hampshire. It's being focused more on other people, and she's talking about fighting for them. And she's speaking out more and taking a lot more questions, opening herself up to the press, trying to build on this notion that a switch was flipped in New Hampshire, and that folks are getting a chance to see the real her, the real fighter, and she's continuing to raise questions about Obama and whether he's ready for the job.

Obama is promising to battle back on those questions that Hillary Clinton is raising, and he's saying change is difficult and we are battling against the status quo. We always knew the status quo would fight back. That's what they do when they're threatened. And so this effort by the Clinton folks to hurt me and knock me back is just the status quo asserting itself. And we're going to come back even harder.

CHADWICK: Michigan is next stop. The Republicans are very competitive there. What do you see, especially with Governor Romney, who is still looking for a first win?

MR. DICKERSON: Michigan is crucial for Governor Romney for two reasons. He needs to put a win on the board, and he's got the best chance there. He's sort of a favorite son, his father having been governor, and he's claiming that mantle, favorite son. And if he doesn't win in Michigan, it's got to be over.

There are four plausible candidates in the Republican race right now. McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee. all of them have a path to victory that is plausible, mostly because it's all very much up in the air in the Republican field. But Romney's path to victory requires that he win somewhere and that he's got to win in Michigan in order to then build something for himself in South Carolina.

CHADWICK: Governor Romney is doing something with his ad strategy. What is that? He's taking ads off the air in South Carolina and Florida.

MR. DICKERSON: He is. He's taking money out of those states and focusing on Michigan. This is basically an admission of two things. One, that he's go to win in a state somewhere. Two, second place finishes have damaged his campaign. And he's got to husband his resources in a way to get that early victory.

I also wonder about the power of his ads. He ran a lot of ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, both supporting himself but also tying to knock down other candidates. They seem to have been ineffective. So the question is whether ads are really going to be able to help him at all.

CHADWICK: We're going to speak with the chair of the Republican Party in South Carolina in a moment. But there's a debate there tonight. What do you expect?

MR. DICKERSON: South Carolina is a huge battleground for the Republicans. It's where all of them are competing. And it's the last stand for Fred Thompson, so he's got a reason to be very aggressive. Giuliani, who's really focused his campaign on Florida but has a vestigial shot in South Carolina, so he'll be competing hard. Huckabee has support among evangelicals in South Carolina. McCain has support among veterans. So the South Carolina primary is really the big battleground to try and sort out this totally zany Republican race right now.

CHADWICK: John Dickerson, chief political correspondent at Slate.com. John, thank you again.

MR. DICKERSON: Thanks, Alex.

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