Candidates Launch National Campaigns

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TONY COX, host:

From NPR News, this is NEWS & NOTES. I'm Tony Cox in for Farai Chideya.

The interment face-to-face politics of Iowa and New Hampshire are over. And now, the sensory bombardment really begins as candidates on both sides launch into their national campaigns. That means big-money TV ads and stadium-sized rallies. Last night, the Republican candidates squared off in South Carolina.

We'll talk to two political analysts about that debate in just a moment, but right now, we have Ron Elving. He is NPR's senior Washington editor, and he is here to give us an idea of what to expect from the candidates between now and Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Hello, Ron.

RON ELVING: Hello, Tony. Good to be with you.

COX: Nice to have you, sir.

Yesterday, Senator Bill Richardson announced he is dropping out of the Democratic race. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden also dropped out of the contest after their poor showings in Iowa. This may or may not have been a surprise, Ron, but the question is, who stands to benefit most from Richardson's absence. And secondly, going into Nevada and South Carolina, which Democrat is next most at peril from a poor showing in either contest?

ELVING: Let me start with the last question, Tony. I think the next Democrat you have to watch is John Edwards. He has not won yet, he has had a pretty good second in Iowa and was rather a distant third in New Hampshire. And his campaign really has to be considered on life support. He must win in South Carolina. If he doesn't, he really has no momentum to go on into Florida and then the huge, huge casino on February 5th.

So money argues against him, momentum argues against him. I think John Edwards really needs to win in South Carolina on January 26th. But to back up and look at Bill Richardson's departure, you know, a lot of people said a lot of nice things about Joe Biden and about Chris Dodd when they dropped out, and I think, really, Bill Richardson leaves a more well, perhaps special gap in the field by leaving so early. Biden and Dodd brought a lot to the debate, but you know, they were a couple more senators. We've got a lot of senators running for president this year.

Bill Richardson was the only sitting governor. The only guy who, right now, is a governor, who is running, and the only Hispanic, first Hispanic-American to be taken seriously running for president of the United States to be at this level. And he did get 5 percent in New Hampshire, just 2 percent in Iowa, but it wasn't enough to keep the money flowing in. a lot of people thought he would hang on until at least Nevada, on the 19th, because that's the first place where you get a substantial Latino vote in this entire election. And so perhaps that was the moment for him to hang on and see what he could do to influence that one state, but he just ran out of money.

COX: On the GOP side, it would seem to be a little more difficult to define who is a, quote, unquote, "leading candidate," and who is not, given the split result in Iowa and New Hampshire. But who would you say is on the bubble heading into Michigan?

ELVING: Heading into Michigan, I think the guy you want to watch is John McCain, as the person who, if he can win in another state, can really confirm this idea that he has a totally remade reality in for Republican politics. After having been the number two in 2000, after having come back this year initially as front-runner then falling into the absolutely depths over the summer when his campaign fell apart, then coming all the way back, largely because other guys who were supposed to be heavy-hitters like Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson didn't really make it, didn't really materialize as front-running candidates, at least not yet. They haven't been a factor and also because Mitt Romney, the guy who is supposed to win Iowa and New Hampshire, didn't win either one.

So in Michigan, it's largely between McCain and Romney. Whichever one of them wins gets a real nice boost going into the later events of this month. And then, of course, Mike Huckabee, still in the picture when we get down to South Carolina, he's going to be a big factor.

COX: How much of a problem would it be for Romney if he does not show well in Michigan?

ELVING: Well, I think if he fails in Michigan, which is after all, his native state and one more of his home states, if he fails there, you really have to ask or why are we still expecting this guy to win any place. These are the concentrated targets of his campaign. Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan. If he doesn't win any of them, it's really going to look as though the sale is just not being closed, even by this master salesman. I think everyone has been impressed with what an extraordinary salesman he has been in the debates and his campaigning, but it's not closing the sale and actually winning any events.

COX: One final thing, Ron. Nevada's caucus is a week away. This will be the first time that we will see results from a heavily populated Latino voter bloc. They make up about 25 percent of Nevada's population. Is there any indication how Latinos are voting either Democratically or GOP?

ELVING: Well, Bill Richardson's dropping out, of course, removes the main magnet for them, but I think they'll still turn out in good numbers. A quarter of the population, as you say, about 13 percent of the voters in the state by estimated strength, disproportionately on the Democratic side. I think probably Barack Obama's going to benefit from the endorsement by the Culinary Worker's, Union, which is about 40 percent Hispanic and also the Service Worker's Union, smaller but also very significant in that area. So I think he's in a good position to benefit from Bill Richardson's dropping out.

COX: Ron, thank you very much.

ELVING: Thank you, Tony.

COX: We've been speaking with NPR's senior Washington editor, Ron Elving. He spoke with us from our studios in Washington, D.C.

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