North Korea Tests Missile over Sea of Japan

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RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Renee Montagne.

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

And I'm Steve Inskeep.

Just as diplomats gather at the United Nations to discuss nuclear proliferation and a treaty to prevent it, North Korea has put itself in the headlines again.

Mr. ANDREW CARD (White House Chief of Staff): It appears that there was a test of a short-range missile by the North Koreans, and it landed in the Sea of Japan.

INSKEEP: That's White House chief of staff Andrew Card, speaking after yesterday's North Korean missile test.

To learn more, we've now called Kurt Campbell. He is director of the International Security Program at The Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was a national security official during the Clinton administration.

Good morning.

Mr. KURT CAMPBELL (Director, International Security Program, The Center for Strategic and International Studies): Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: What do you think the significance is of this North Korean test?

Mr. CAMPBELL: Well, it's certainly inopportune, as you just suggested. The meeting about the renewal of the Non-Proliferation Treaty is very significant. The North Koreans have done this before. They launched a missile in 1998 that went over Japan that had really tremendous consequences. Japan really triggered a major rethinking of Japanese security policy. And, of course, just in the last couple of days, US officials have been trying to gather up momentum for a renewal of six-party talks with North Korea. The North Koreans are just sending all signals possible that they're heading towards a crisis, and they're going to try to get the United States to play different cards. They're extremely unhappy with our position, and the region is extremely nervous about the next steps here.

INSKEEP: I want to play you a piece of tape here. This is White House chief of staff Andrew Card again speaking on CNN yesterday and describing the administration response to this test.

(Soundbite of CNN broadcast)

Mr. CARD: We're not surprised by this. The North Koreans have tested their missiles before. They've had some failures. And we have to work together with our allies around the world--especially the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Russians and the Chinese--to demonstrate that North Korea's actions are inappropriate.

INSKEEP: You mentioned, Mr. Campbell, that the North Koreans are not happy with Bush administration policy. I would imagine the Bush administration is not too worried about that. Has the Bush administration been more effective over time in getting other countries in the region to focus on North Korea in a constructive way?

Mr. CAMPBELL: Well, I think one of the problems is that--of the parties that--or the countries that are interested in North Korea, we're starting to see some divisions among them about how to engage North Korea. Clearly, South Korea believes that, sort of, the soft approach is the most important way to deal with a difficult Stalinist regime like North Korea. The United States takes a tougher line, and I think Japan is close to the United States in this respect. The key here is China. And of late, China has been trying to play down the significance of some of these steps.

And the problem in the United States, of course, is that just last week Admiral Jacoby, the head of the DIA, one of the intelligence agencies of the US government, suggested that North Korea was capable of arming a long-range missile with a nuclear weapon. That will have very profound political significance in the United States, I think. So I think the problem is going to be trying to get all of the different countries who are concerned about North Korea on the same page, and that's something that we have not been able to do.

INSKEEP: Mr. Campbell, very briefly, you were part of an administration that worked out a deal with the North Koreans to restrain their nuclear program. In the end, the North Koreans went around that deal. Do you think that you can negotiate with this regime, that you can make a deal that you can have confidence in?

Mr. CAMPBELL: To be honest, I have deep anxieties about whether that's possible. In fact, I think one of the most important reasons why you attempt to deal with North Korea seriously is to try to determine that absolutely and ultimately. And then I think you have a better shot of having your allies with you--Japan and South Korea in particular--if they believe that you've given negotiations the fairest possible chance. I think most countries in the region believe that over the last couple of years that at best we've been half-hearted in terms of our diplomacy with North Korea. And as a result, if things go badly, I think some of those countries are going to be very reluctant to be with us if we have to think about steps that are less hopeful than diplomacy.

INSKEEP: Mr. Campbell, thanks very much.

Mr. CAMPBELL: Thank you. Good to be with you.

INSKEEP: Kurt Campbell is senior vice president and director of international security at The Center for Strategic and International Studies. He's at home in Virginia.

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