Bush Hopes to Rally Public Opinion on Iraq War

Copyright © 2009 National Public Radio®. For personal, noncommercial use only. See Terms of Use. For other uses, prior permission required.

MADELEINE BRAND, host:

Today, Iraq is President Bush's public focus for the third time in three days. Monday, he gave a speech about Iraq in Cleveland. Yesterday, he held a press conference, and Iraq was the number one topic. Today, he's speaking to military families in West Virginia about the need to continue to fight insurgents.

President GEORGE W. BUSH: Find them where they hide and keep the pressure on. And never relent. And understand that you can't negotiate with these folks. There is no compromise. There is no middle ground. And so that's exactly what we're doing.

BRAND: To talk about this big push to improve public opinion on the war, we're joined by Christopher Gelpi. He's an expert on public opinion during war time. And he's also an associate professor of political science at Duke University.

And Christopher Gelpi, welcome to DAY TO DAY.

Professor CHRISTOPHER GELPI (Political Science, Duke University): Thanks for having me.

BRAND: Now, the president has made big public appearances talking about Iraq for three days in a row. Clearly, he's trying to turn public opinion around, which is very low on the subject of the war. Is it working?

Professor GELPI: I think that the evidence from his speeches last December suggest that this kind of a PR campaign can move public opinion somewhat. But over time, the sort of bounces that he's been getting have been getting smaller.

And while he may be able to sort of rally the Republican base, a large section of the public is probably not looking to him anymore for their information about what's happening in Iraq. They're looking to the news media and to what they see happening on the ground.

BRAND: And so, what would be a better strategy, do you think, for the president?

Professor GELPI: I think giving these kinds of speeches is probably the right thing to do. That is--and he's focusing on the right kind of variables, which is trying to persuade people that we can win the war. And I thought he was at some of his most forceful the other day when he said he believes we can win, and if he didn't, he would pull out.

But it's not going to take him very far unless he can actually show progress on the ground.

BRAND: He's also taken a somewhat new tack in admitting that there have been failures and of suggesting that yes, soldiers will be there for quite some time. Is that a good idea?

Professor GELPI: Well, I certainly think that the being more candidate about the challenges is important. I think if he continued on sort of simply not acknowledging anything, then it sort of takes on an air of what Stephen Colbert(ph) has called truthiness of saying things, because you wish that they were true.

So, I think being candid helps.

BRAND: Well, I'm wondering if you see any downsides to this big push, making so many speeches on the Iraq war, and trying to dominate the news with these appearances. Are there any political downsides for the president?

Professor GELPI: I don't think that there is much to lose in talking about the war in terms of driving public opinions down, because everybody's thinking about the war, anyway. So, it's not like he's going to draw people's attention to an issue they hadn't thought about and are unhappy about.

So, I don't see much of a downside to it in that sense.

BRAND: The administration has long complained that the media is showing a skewed version of what's going on in Iraq, that it's focusing on death and destruction to the exclusion of the positive things that are going on in Iraq, and that by making these public appearances, talking about the positive side, he's sort of balancing out that viewpoint.

Does that seem to work in the public's mind?

Professor GELPI: I think it'll work for people who are predisposed to believe the president. The polling evidence suggests that, certainly Democrats, and to a large extent, independents, have lost confidence in the credibility of what the president says about Iraq.

I recently saw a polling result that suggested that 66 percent of the public says that President Bush makes Iraq sound better than it really is on the ground. President Bush got a very low trustworthiness rating from the public on Iraq, even lower than the news media, and they aren't that fond of the news media.

BRAND: Christopher Gelpi is an associate professor of political science at Duke University, and an expert on public opinion during war time. Christopher Gelpi, thank you for joining us.

Professor GELPI: Thanks very much for having me.

Copyright ©2009 National Public Radio®. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to National Public Radio. This transcript is provided for personal, noncommercial use only, pursuant to our Terms of Use. Any other use requires NPR's prior permission. Visit our permissions page for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by a contractor for NPR, and accuracy and availability may vary. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Please be aware that the authoritative record of NPR's programming is the audio.