Zarqawi Death Could Help Unravel Foreign Insurgency

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MIKE SHUSTER, host:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld today called the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi a significant victory in the battle against terrorism in Iraq and around the world.

Secretary of Defense DONALD RUMSFELD: I think, arguably, over the last several years, no single person on this planet has had the blood of more innocent men, women, and children on his hands than Zarqawi. He personified the dark, sadistic, and medieval vision of the future of beheadings, suicide bombings, and indiscriminant killings.

SHUSTER: Rumsfeld was speaking in Belgium at a NATO meeting. To talk more about what Zarqawi's death could mean for the effort to bring about a more secure Iraq, we're joined by retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert Scales, who ran the Army War College.

Welcome, General.

Major General ROBERT SCALES (U.S. Army, Retired): Hi, Mike.

SHUSTER: Let's start by talking about what this episode means for the foreign insurgency in Iraq. Zarqawi is believed to have had some foreign - some hundreds of foreign fighters…

Maj. Gen. SCALES: Right.

SHUSTER: …working with him in an organization that he controlled.

Maj. Gen. SCALES: Right.

SHUSTER: What about that - the functioning of that organization now?

Maj. Gen. SCALES: Well, there're two facts that play - three facts that play in this, Mike. It's not only the death of Zarqawi, which is significant because Zarqawi was, in effect, the brains of the outfit. But also, secondly, was the fact that he was given up either by some of his own people, or by Sunnis who were very close to the insurgency, which shows a certain fracturing within the Sunni community, and a sense of dissatisfaction with foreign involvement in the insurgency. And third was something that's not been reported on - which is very significant - and that's an enormous amount of intelligence data gathered from laptops and documents and so forth that's been scooped up, which may allow coalition forces to begin to unravel the network. Because in an insurgency, it's not just the guy at the top, but it's the network - it's the ability to disassemble, if you will, the network that leads to success in a counter-insurgency war.

SHUSTER: So you see this as a possible serious blow to at least the foreign insurgency inside Iraq.

Maj. Gen. SCALES: And it's very important, Mike, to differentiate between the two. The indigenous insurgency is very disorganized. It's very fractured. It's very disparate, but it has big numbers. The foreign influence, of course, is as I said - the brain, the organizational part, the operational part, the recruiting part - often times, the segment of the insurgency that gets money. And with that being fractured to some extent, that's a great blow. But we still have the local insurgency, the indigenous insurgency made up principally of local Iraqi Sunnis that will, unfortunately, probably continue the violence for some time.

SHUSTER: And do you think Zarqawi's death will have, eventually, some impact on that wider Sunni insurgency?

Maj. Gen. SCALES: I think it will, in terms of the intelligence of the effort and the ability to coalesce the effort, and to prosecute their end of the war with some logic and cogent planning. Because after all, as I said, once you get much below Zarqawi's level, the degree of skill at planning and executing very sophisticated insurgent acts begins to fall off precipitously.

SHUSTER: And just briefly, General, what about the Shia militia and the huge problem that they pose in Iraq? Is there any effect on that…

Maj. Gen. SCALES: No, there's none. Remember now, there's 102 paramilitary groups in Iraq right now. There are three that are significant. The largest of those, obviously, is the Shia militia. They are trying to achieve their military ends almost completely separate from the Sunni insurgency, and certainly from the effort that was run by the foreign fighters.

SHUSTER: Thanks very much, general. Retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert Scales is the author of Yellow Smoke: The Future of Land Warfare for America's Military. This is NPR News.

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