Experts Put New Somalia Government in Context

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FARAI CHIDEYA, host:

And now a closer look at the roots of the conflict in Somalia and what lies ahead. Emira Woods is co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. Bill Fletcher is former president of TransAfrica Forum and a visiting professor at Brooklyn College City University of New York.

When I spoke with them earlier, Bill Fletcher explored the motivation for the battles inside Somalia.

Mr. BILL FLETCHER (Former President, TransAfrica Forum): It's taking place because Somalia has been wracked with chaos since 1991 and the people at Somalia got sick of the situation with the warlords. A group, the Islamic Courts, which is in some ways analogous to the Taliban, emerged and there was a growth of support because they seemed to bring about stability.

The Ethiopians, on the other hand, backing up the transitional government, saw the Islamic Courts as representing a potential security threat and allied with the United States. They have intervened to support the transitional government.

CHIDEYA: According to news reports, Ethiopia claims it may have to pull out its troops very soon because it doesn't have a lot of money. Now I'm going to go to you first, Bill, and then you, Emira. Why would a country that has had so many highly publicized issues with money, with its own governance, send these troops in?

Mr. FLETCHER: I think in part because there's a long historical between Somalia and Ethiopia and Ogaden region of southern Ethiopia, which has a significant Somali population. And I believe that the Meles government in Addis Ababa was very worried about the potential for a secessionist movement to reemerge.

CHIDEYA: Emira, can you flesh that out a little more, including the whole regional conflicts? I mean this region of the Horn of Africa has a lot of competing interests, doesn't it?

Ms. EMIRA WOODS (Co-Director, Foreign Policy in Focus): Well, Farai, I would pull back even further to its geopolitical strategic interest. Let's remember Somalia controls, really, shipping; international shipping around the world goes all along the shores of Somalia.

And it is for that strategic reason that both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. throughout the Cold War poured in weapons, systematically making Somalia ungovernable. And really for 15 years now you have had a cobbled together government.

And what has happened over the last few months, really since June, is that there's been stability in and around Mogadishu, and it's stability that people frankly welcomed. So it is in this critical moment now that I think there is concern that the stability is now totally disappeared, that you have 15,000 Ethiopian troops with a clear understanding that they are backed by the United States in Somalia, not only with a physical troop presence but also pouring in more and more weapons.

CHIDEYA: Emira, what do international bodies like the United Nations have to do now? Is the U.N. going to be expected to step in and send troops in place of these Ethiopian troops? Is the U.S., which has a strategic interest in the region, going to do anything?

Ms. WOODS: Well, the first thing that needs to be done by an international community is to respect an arms embargo. In fact, what happened was just the reverse. Before John Bolton left, his send off for the U.N. and for the world, really, representing the U.S. government, was to end the arms embargo on Somalia. So the U.N. resolution pushed by the U.S. in one way was positive because it called for no troops from the neighboring countries, even though that has very much happened by Ethiopia.

But in addition to that, it calls for the lifting of the arms embargo. So what you have is an international community complicit in the flooding of arms in a region that is already devastated, already awash with weapons. So what is needed is immediately a curbing of the flow of arms to Somalia to end the violence, to end the destruction that will create further instability.

But beyond that, what is needed is giving the space, the political space, for the Somalis to determine their future, to determine their destiny.

CHIDEYA: Bill, the Somalis themselves determining their future, it can be messy in any country where you have rivalry. Certainly in the United States we have deep political rivalries, as well as cultural and religious rivalries. But in a nation like Somalia in which clans often take sway over who controls what bit of land, what does it really mean to have self-governance and who really should be relied on to push that forward?

Mr. FLETCHER: Well, when the international community attempted to negotiate this transitional government, I think that that was actually the right step. The problem is that the transitional government is far too narrow in its base and was actually on the verge of being eliminated entirely by the Islamic Courts because they were so narrow. It was only with the Ethiopian intervention that that changed.

What's necessary, I would suggest, is a pulling out of all foreign troops and support. That includes the Ethiopians but it's not limited to them. Eritrea has been fishing in very troubled waters as part of their contention with Ethiopia, and they need to stay as far away from Somalia as possible. This is a kind of situation that could boil over into an entire regional conflict.

So the international community is needed right now to help to expand the base of the transitional government, to bring in the various forces, including elements of the Islamic Courts, in some sort of national unity process.

CHIDEYA: Last question for both of you. Emira first, and then Bill. What should we look for ahead? Perhaps that question can be broken down into what should we look for on a practical level and what should we hope for on a larger level?

Ms. WOODS: I think what is needed is that space for many parties, including the Somali women, to sit around that table and to actually negotiate a path forward. It is a new day for Somalis to recognize and to seize control of their country. There is a tremendous opportunity to learn the lessons of Somaliland. Somaliland is a province within Somalia.

At one time they were two separate countries under the colonial period. It has been a region, a sizable region, that has maintained stability. It has maintained its own government. It has remained stable throughout the past 15 years because of the inclusion, because of the participation of women in the political process and in the negotiations process. There is a lot to be learned and I think this is a ripe time for Somalis and for the international community to support that opening of the democratic space.

Mr. FLETCHER: What we should for depends on the actual military capability of the Islamic Courts and whether or not they have disintegrated or whether they've engaged in a strategic retreat. If they have disintegrated, then what I think we can look forward to is international pressure towards some sort of process of reconciliation.

If, on the other hand, they have engaged in a strategic retreat, then I think we'll see something that's analogous to what's happened in Rwanda where you had the Hutus that withdrew into the eastern part of the Congo and carried out periodic military raids into Rwanda.

What we should hope for is that the Ethiopians withdraw, other foreign forces withdraw, and that an international process takes place that really does encourage the broadening of the transitional government as well as the bringing in of concrete material assistance.

CHIDEYA: Well, Bill, Emira, thank you so much.

Mr. FLETCHER: Thank you.

Ms. WOODS: Thank you.

CHIDEYA: Emira Woods is co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. And Bill Fletcher is former president of TransAfrica Forum. They both joined us from our studios in Washington, D.C.

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CHIDEYA: Just ahead, do House leaders have the right agenda for their first 100 hours in Congress? And how kids with home computers have an advantage in school.

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