Zimbabwe Presidential Election Outcome Murky

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MICHELE NORRIS, host:

From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Michele Norris.

ROBERT SIEGEL, host:

And I'm Robert Siegel.

It's been four days since millions of Zimbabweans went to the polls, and they still don't know who has won the presidential vote there. Today, the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, claimed victory.

Spokesman Tendai Biti said the party had done its own tally of the votes.

Mr. TENDAI BITI (Secretary General, Movement for Democratic Change): And what we are confirming namely that Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is the next president of the Republic of Zimbabwe, and he was (unintelligible) without…

(Soundbite of applause)

Mr. BITI: …without a runoff. That means he's above the 50 percent threshold.

SIEGEL: The government dismissed that claim, but the electoral commission did confirm that the opposition had won control of Zimbabwe's parliament.

Well, NPR's Ofeibea Quist-Arcton joins us now to talk about the situation there.

And, Ofeibea, first of all, I want you to explain what we just heard about whether or not there would be a runoff. What's the system we're talking about?

OFEIBEA QUIST-ARCTON: Well, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change is saying that its candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, won 50.3 percent of the vote, which would put him over the 50 percent threshold. And they say he's won outright. But this morning's government-controlled Herald newspaper hinted that there was going to be a runoff vote and that would be between Morgan Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe.

SIEGEL: Of course, all of this would be settled if people knew what the vote was. If Tsvangirai won over 50 percent of the vote, there would be no runoff. If nobody won 50 percent, I gather there would be a runoff. But when are we going to see official vote results?

(Soundbite of laughter)

QUIST-ARCTON: Well, Robert, if I knew the answer to that, I'd be a very wealthy woman and a very popular one. Indeed, the electoral commission is bringing out the vote count piecemeal. And that moment hasn't even reached the presidential vote, it's only giving out the results of the parliamentary election. And this is causing a lot of anxiety and tension among Zimbabweans because they really don't know what's going on. For the first time in elections in Zimbabwe, the results were meant to be pinned outside polling stations, so that everybody was aware of what was happening. So everybody is saying, well, in that case, we should have had these results in by Sunday. What is going on?

SIEGEL: Robert Mugabe, now the president of Zimbabwe, has been the leader of that country ever since independence, for 28 years. Does it appear that if he lost either the first round to 50 percent majority for Tsvangirai, or if he were to contest and lose the second round that he would leave peaceably?

QUIST-ARCTON: This is the question, of course, because everybody is wondering, would Robert Mugabe accept defeat. And, of course, there are lots of factors that you have to put into this. The army, the security forces, the police, the elite, those who stand to lose if Robert Mugabe loses because of his patronage. And then on the other side, the opposition and the people who say they're fed up, it's time for change.

SIEGEL: Is there any clearer picture today of what sort of negotiations, if any, are going on behind the scenes over the - or the possible departure of President Mugabe?

QUIST-ARCTON: Yesterday, both sides denied that there were any talks between the opposition and the government. But to be frank, Robert, there has to be talking, either the opposition and the government or mediators or within the government party itself because Zimbabwe has come to a crossroads one way or another. Are we going to have a peaceful handover or are we going to have peaceful continuity under Mugabe?

SIEGEL: Okay. Thank you, Ofeibea.

QUIST-ARCTON: Always a pleasure.

SIEGEL: That's NPR's Ofeibea Quist-Arcton speaking to us from Johannesburg, South Africa, where she's been monitoring the situation in neighboring Zimbabwe.

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