Letters: Picking an NCAA Winner

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ROBERT SIEGEL, host:

It's time for some of your comments on yesterday's program, plus an update on a conversation we had last month with a math student about NCAA basketball.

MICHELLE NORRIS, host:

Neil Goodson is a senior at the College of Charleston in South Carolina. He's part of a team that designed a system of algorithms for predicting outcomes in the men's tournament - the tournament that wrapped up last night. Well, the model was good enough to predict at least one major upset: a loss by number six-ranked USC.

SIEGEL: Last month, I asked Mr. Goodson to look into his crystal ball and to pick a winner for the tournament.

Mr. NEIL GOODSON (Math major, College of Charleston): Most of our models are pointing towards Kansas. Now, they are one seed but they are not the overall one seed. So, we'll see how well we do.

SIEGEL: Well, Neil Goodson joins us now from Charleston once again. And Neil, how well did you do? Kansas won.

Mr. GOODSON: That's right. We did surprisingly well this year.

SIEGEL: But there were other models out there that did as well as your system. There were three engineering professors at Georgia Tech who also picked Kansas. What about the idea that the Final Four consisted of the four regional number one seeds?

Mr. GOODSON: Well, that's what our best models predicted. So, I would - I have to say that the selection committee did a nice job of seeding the teams this year. It's about all I can really say.

SIEGEL: Any other big upsets that your models saw coming, apart from USC losing?

Mr. GOODSON: That was the biggest upset. We did predict some of the 8-and-9 match-ups. Texas A&M was the winner and we predicted them, Davidson over Gonzaga in the first round.

SIEGEL: You had that one?

Mr. GOODSON: Yes. Unfortunately, we didn't have Davidson going as far as they did. But we did have them in the first round.

SIEGEL: So what was your final grade on the project?

Mr. GOODSON. Our professor, Doctor Langville, she's told us that we're most likely going to get an A.

SIEGEL: Well, well done. And was she waiting to see the outcome of last night's game between Kansas and Memphis?

Mr. GOODSON: I don't think so, but it couldn't hurt.

SIEGEL: Now you're - the team you picked to win it all, Kansas, won, but if one Memphis player had sunk just one free throw out of several they missed in the last couple of minutes, you would have been wrong about the big win.

Mr. GOODSON: That's correct. There's always going to be some element of luck in sporting events, and I have to say we were definitely on the lucky side last night.

SIEGEL: Well, Neil Goodson of the College of Charleston. Congratulations and thanks a lot for talking with us.

Mr. GOODSON: And thank you for talking to me.

NORRIS: And now for some of your email. Debora Robins(ph) of Huntington Station, New York, heard our first conversation with Neil Goodson, she writes. I'm not a basketball fan or a sports fan of any kind, but Mr. Goodson's story stuck with me.

When I heard this morning that Kansas had won the NCAA tournament, I remembered his math team's prediction. If anyone ever deserved an A-plus from their professor, I would say that these students do.

SIEGEL: Well, many of you sent comments about my interview with Gene Weingarten of the Washington Post Magazine. He won a Pulitzer Prize yesterday for his story about placing a world class violinist inside a Washington, D.C., Metro Station. Joshua Bell played during the morning rush hour, but only one person recognized him.

NORRIS: Seth Barken(ph) knows how that feels. He works as a cocktail pianist in Las Vegas. He writes, I was not at all surprised to hear the disheartening results of The Washington Post subway experiment. Barken goes on, although I make absolutely no claim to be on the same level as Mr. Bell, I have had my moments in front of uncaring audiences.

The fact is that we live in the world where music is so ubiquitous that people no longer care about the magic of live performance. Welcome to my world and remember to always tip; it makes our nights.

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NORRIS: Our program is directed by Greg Dickson, edited by Alysson McAdam, and produced by Neal Kuru(ph). The technical director is Bill Deputy(ph). The engineering supervisor is Robert Jackson.

SIEGEL: The staff includes Susan Fini(ph), Franklin Cater, Art Silverman, Brandon Benezack(ph), Jonathan Blakely, Carol Klinger(ph), Elizabeth Tannen(ph) and Rhonda Ray(ph).

NORRIS: Our executive producer is Christopher Turpin(ph). The managing editor for NPR News is Bryan Duffy(ph).

I'm Michelle Norris.

SIEGEL: And I'm Robert Siegel. You're listening to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED from NPR News.

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