Petraeus Testifies, Candidates Eye Pennsylvania Primary

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MICHEL MARTIN, host:

I'm Michel Martin, and this is Tell Me More from NPR News. Coming up, remembering Rwanda. The 14th anniversary of the beginning of the mass slaughter was this week. We will also reflect on the life of Bishop S.C. Daddy Madison, who passed away recently. He was head of the United House of Prayer For All People, a denomination that's been a force in many urban communities for three generations. But first, it's time for our Friday political chat. This week General David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker updated Congress on the status of the war effort in Iraq. The Democrats, and some Republicans, did not like what they heard. Also, the polls in Pennsylvania show the race tightening for Senators Clinton and Obama, and there's more bad news in the economic front as jobless claims hit their highest level since Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Here to talk about all this are Harold Jackson, he's editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer's editorial page, and Eamon Javers, he's a reporter with politico.com. Welcome to you both.

Mr. EAMON JAVERS (Reporter, politico.com): Thank you.

Mr. HAROLD JACKSON (Editor, Philadelphia Inquirer editorial page): Thank you for having me here.

MARTIN: Yesterday, President Bush indefinitely suspended further withdrawals of U.S. troops in Iraq. He also reduced combat tours from 15 months to 12. I just want to play a short clip so people can hear what he said if they didn't have a chance to hear him yesterday.

President GEORGE W. BUSH: General Petraeus has reported that security conditions have improved enough to withdrawal all five surge brigades by the end of July. That means that by July 31st the number of U.S. combat brigades in Iraq will be down by 25 percent from last year. General Petraeus says he'll need time to consolidate his forces and assess how this reduced American presence will affect conditions on the ground before making measured recommendations on further reductions. And I've told him he'll have all the time he needs.

MARTIN: Mr. Jackson, I remember thinking when I heard this, I was thinking of that song from "Mary Poppins," "A Spoon Full of Sugar Makes the Medicine Go Down." What part of that headline do you think resonated most strongly? The shorter terms, or that not more troops coming home right away?

Mr. JACKSON: Well, I think that it's interesting because the president's remarks seemed to go beyond what even General Petraeus asked for. He said that after the troop reductions in July that he would need at least 45 days to assess this situation. The president's remarks made it more open-ended in that, in terms of when the next contingent of troops would come home. I think that, in terms of resonance with the public, I'm not sure how much it really had because they expect this from the president now. They don't expect him to really change his course until this administration ends.

MARTIN: Let me just play a short clip from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. This was the Congressional response. Here it is.

Senator HARRY REID (Democrat, Nevada): The president still doesn't understand that America's limited resources cannot support this endless war that he's gotten us involved in. His announcement, while some look to as a great victory, is, I say, two steps backwards and one step forward.

MARTIN: So, Eamon, really the same question to you. Which of those versions, the two-steps-forward or the one-step-back story do you think the public's hearing?

Mr. JAVERS: Right. Well, the public has clearly said that they've lost patience with the war in Iraq. I mean, poll numbers - every poll you see, the public does not approve with the Iraq war at this point. The fascinating thing that's going on here this week, though, I think, is there are two main themes in this presidential election in 2008. One is the economy; the other is the war in Iraq. The Democrats, this week, were trying to merge those two. You heard Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, saying that this war in Iraq is driving up the U.S. debt and that debt is causing the recession that we're in. So, you see those two issues merging into one. That could be a powerful political argument. I'm not sure if it's entirely true but it could be a powerful political argument going forward.

MARTIN: The three presidential candidates had an opportunity to question the general and the ambassador throughout the day. Do you think that any of them made an impact with their questions?

Mr. JAVERS: It's hard to really separate yourself in this kind of a format. I mean, it's a very formal setting, they're very respectful of the general, they can't give the, sort of, harsh campaign rhetoric that they give on the campaign trail. You see a very different tone from the Democrats in particular.

MARTIN: Why can't they?

Mr. JAVERS: Well, because, I think, face-to-face it has a different dynamic. I think, if you are perceived as being harsh and shrill to a United States general who's commanding troops in the field, that is very different than making a rousing stump speech somewhere out in Pennsylvania, for example. And so, the format's different, the tone is different, and that makes it very hard to penetrate the public consciousness here.

MARTIN: Harold, did you think any of the presidential candidates in their questions made any impact with the public?

Mr. JACKSON: I don't really think so in that their positions on the war were already known. I agree that they were cordial, they were polite in their questioning of General Petraeus. He is a well-respected general among the American public. They did not want to attack him. I think that their positions are well known, they didn't advance those positions and if you really look at what General Petraeus presented it was to reduce the number of combat troops, to reduce the lengths of service of Americans in Iraq. These are positive things and things that they would support. The timetable for withdrawal they disagree with but he did announce withdrawal.

Mr. JAVERS: It was...

MARTIN: Go ahead, Eamon.

Mr. JAVERS: Yeah. I was just going to say, one of the really interesting things here was Petraeus and President Bush, and there's a little bit of daylight between then, which surprised me. What Petraeus is saying, we haven't turned the corner yet. We don't yet see the light at the end of the tunnel. And then here comes President Bush saying well, this war is not endless. Well, that's not quite what you heard from General Petraeus, who's saying we don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I was surprised to see that level of difference in their tone of their comments because you would think that behind the scenes, a lot of this public stuff has been worked out in advance to make sure that there wouldn't be daylight between the comments of the top general in Iraq and the President of the United States.

MARTIN: If you're just joining us, we're talking with Harold Jackson, editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer's editorial page, and Eamon Javers. He's a reporter with politico.com. Harold, in Pennsylvania, do you think that Senator McCain's position... I mean, he's so closely identified with support for the war effort on the one hand, but he's been critical of the way the war has actually been waged. How is that position playing with voters in Pennsylvania?

Mr. JACKSON: I think that McCain actually has a great deal of support in Pennsylvania because he's still seen as a maverick and not necessarily someone who walks in lockstep with the administration on issues beside the war. Now, under war people disagree with him greatly because he made the comment about being committed to stay there for as long as it takes, even if it's100 years. So, you know, I'm not sure how much traction he's getting on the war issue now. Here in Pennsylvania, really, the big issue is the economy. I think that people pay attention to what's being said about the war. I think it was right of the Democrats to try to relate the war to the economy because here in Pennsylvania that's topic number one.

MARTIN: And, of course, stick with me for just one second, the polls show that the race is tightening on the Democratic side between Senators Clinton and Obama. Any thoughts about why?

Mr. JACKSON: Well, you know, I don't know that anyone could have expected Hillary Clinton to maintain the double digit leads. I mean, just watching TV commercials here in the Philadelphia area, you can see that she's being outspent greatly. You see twice as many commercials on the air for Obama. He certainly has the national momentum. There's a movement, the Obama movement. So, the fact that she has been able, actually, to withhold the onslaught to this point, where she still has a lead of about six percent, I think is positive for her. You know, I never expected her to remain double digits.

MARTIN: And what about race? I mean, we've heard a lot about race all along here, particularly, sort of, in recent months and Governor Rendell's told the editorial board of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette that you've got conservative whites here and some whites who aren't ready to vote for an African-American. That caused, like, sort of a kerfuffle for a minute there, and what do you think about that? Do you think that's true?

Mr. JACKSON: I think that race is an issue but a much smaller issue than issue may want to make of it. I think the economy trumps all. I think that in those areas of Pennsylvania where you find blue-collar voters, the reason that they're leaning towards Hillary Clinton has to do with her position on the economy. They feel more comfortable with her than they do with Barack Obama on the economy. That's not to say there won't be some people who vote according to their race, but I think that's not going to be a great factor, and that's my guess.

Mr. JAVERS: And one of the key factors here for Hillary Clinton is that she's a known quantity. She's been on the national stage since 1992, or even earlier, so people know her. Voters in Pennsylvania are familiar with the Clinton brand. They know what they're getting there. That's a huge entrenched advantage for Hillary Clinton, and what Barack Obama has been able to do with this massive fundraising that he's been doing on the internet is eat away at that name recognition that Hillary Clinton has bit by bit. So, actually, this long delay toward April 22nd, when the Pennsylvania primary occurs is working to his advantage because it gives him time to deploy that massive war chest and bring down Hillary Clinton's numbers slowly but surely.

MARTIN: So, play the expectations game for me. If Hillary Clinton wins but narrowly is it still - I mean, obviously a win is a win, you know, because 10 beats nine no matter how you get the 10. But is Barack Obama going to say, yeah but I overcame this huge deficit. Is that credible?

Mr. JAVERS: I think the day after the primary...

MARTIN: Does she have to have a big win in order to really, sort of, be seen as significant?

Mr. JAVERS: She does. She has to have a big win in order for it to be seen as significant. The day after the primary we're going to wake up and we're going to hear Barack Obama supporters out on radio and television and in the newspapers saying look, she didn't win enough delegates to eat into Obama's delegate lead, therefore she cannot be the nominee, she ought to get out of this race. As long as it's close. If it's a huge blowout for Clinton you'll hear the Clinton people out on radio and television and in the papers saying, well, wait a second, the voters are speaking here, let's let this thing continue on.

MARTIN: Harold?

Mr. JACKSON: Well, there's another factor here. I think it will be close, I don't think it's going to be a blowout, but I think Clinton can still walk away from this with a victory that will resonate at the convention. If you look at the parts of Pennsylvania that will support her and look at the general election, that's the indicator that whoever the Democratic nominee is, especially Obama, would have a hard time taking this state. In fact, a latest Quinnipiac poll that's been put out shows that in the states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, that Obama would have a much harder time beating McCain than Hillary Clinton. So, even if she has a narrow victory in Pennsylvania, she'll point to the areas of the state where she was victorious and say that this is an indicator that Barack Obama cannot carry Pennsylvania, you know, as in Florida, which is mad at the Democrats anyway, as in Ohio. And, you know, she'll use that as ammunition for her. So, even if it's a narrow victory, it's something that Clinton can use to her advantage.

Mr. JAVERS: And that's what...

MARTIN: Has the Inquirer endorsed? Hold on a second.

Mr. JAVERS: Sure.

MARTIN: Has the Inquirer endorsed?

Mr. JACKSON: Well, the Inquirer endorsed in the Democratic primary back in February because we also have a large readership in New Jersey, and we endorsed Barack Obama.

MARTIN: OK. So, do you have any wager on that with somebody? Do you have to buy anybody a cheese steak or something?

Mr. JACKSON: No wager on that. No wager on that.

MARTIN: OK. Eamon, final thought? Very quickly.

Mr. JAVERS: Yeah, that's the scenario that's giving the Democratic establishment here in Washington the willies, which is that both of these candidates are tearing each others down, and John McCain is getting a free pass toward his convention. That's something that gives Democrats a lot of concern.

MARTIN: You can also say it's ho-hum, though. Who's talking about John - we are, we're talking about John McCain because we wanted to talk about the video "It's Raining McCain," but other than that, you can argue he's sort of disappeared from the headlines, right?

Mr. JAVERS: Right, but even as Obama and Clinton tear at each other they're creating lasting damage that might impact the general election.

MARTIN: All right. Something to watch. Eamon Javers is a political reporter with politico.com. He was kind enough to join me here in the studio in Washington. Harold Jackson is editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer's editorial page. He was kind enough to join us from WHYY in Philadelphia. Gentlemen, thank you both so much.

Mr. JAVERS: Thank you.

Mr. JACKSON: Thank you.

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