Economy Likely To Dominate Presidential Debate

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Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama will meet in a town hall-style meeting in Nashville, Tenn. Topics are supposed to be divided between the economy and foreign policy, but given the financial crisis more questions are expected to focus on the topic.

ROBERT SIEGEL, host:

NPR's national political correspondent Mara Liasson is also in Nashville attending the debate. And Mara, we just heard about the people asking the questions. How does that change the game plan for the candidates tonight?

MARA LIASSON: Well, Robert, a town meeting format is a really different kind of debate, and it's a lot harder to attack your opponent directly and aggressively if you're standing right next to him on a stage in front of a whole lot of people who are asking you questions. And in the past, we've seen these town hall meeting format debates really reward people who can empathize with the questioner, understand where the audience is coming from. Frank talked about that moment in the Bush-Perot-Clinton town hall debate.

Also body language is important. The moment from that debate became when George H. W. Bush looked down at his watch. It made it seem like he was bored and impatient. But voters value civility. And certainly the voters in that audience want to see a discussion about the problems that affect them. And it's a real challenge to be able to take the attack to your opponent and still do what voters in a town hall meeting expect.

SIEGEL: Well, there are famous moments from these debates. President Bush looking at his watch, as you've described it, and Bill Clinton saying, I feel your pain. But when it comes to voting, actually, have these debates ever really changed the outcome?

LIASSON: I don't know if they've changed the outcome, but they are extremely important events for undecided voters. There are about nine percent of voters still undecided. That's about standard for this point in a race. Debate performance is really important. We know that Obama's debate performance in the first debate helped him - that and the Wall Street financial crisis in terms of his rise in the polls since then - but not just because of who was perceived to have won or done better, but because he accomplished his goal which was to reassure the public that he was a plausible commander in chief.

It's going to be very hard for this debate to be a game changer in the sense of reversing the dynamic of the race for McCain. When you're behind, short of a mistake on the part of your opponent, it's hard to use a debate to completely reverse the dynamic of the race. And obviously that's what McCain comes into this debate wanting to do, make the race once again a referendum on Obama.

SIEGEL: Well, the latest national polls, not to mention polls from lots of key states, show that John McCain has been hurt hard by the economic crisis, and the movement is toward Obama.

LIASSON: There's no doubt about it. We have a bunch of new polls today. They all show Obama up from three to nine percentage points. We also are starting to get the registration numbers in key battleground states. There have been about four million new voters registered, and in a lot of those states Democrats have a registration edge by two to one. In North Carolina it's six to one. So that all gives Obama a pretty big advantage, assuming he can get those voters to the polls.

SIEGEL: Well, put that in the context of the overall map, the Electoral College map. How does it look?

LIASSON: The thing that's important about the map right now is that all the states that are tossups - which means they're within the margin of error - none of them were won by John Kerry in 2004. In other words, all of them are red states that were won by Bush the last time around.

SIEGEL: So Obama is doing much better than the last Democratic candidate...

LIASSON: Yes, no doubt about that. The only state that's a tossup state where McCain is ahead is Indiana.

SIEGEL: Thank you, Mara.

LIASSON: Thank you, Robert.

SIEGEL: That's NPR's Mara Liasson speaking to us from Nashville. And you can listen to tonight's debate on many NPR stations.

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Great Expectations As Candidates Debate Again

Barack Obama and John McCain shake hands after their first debate.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain and Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama shake hands on stage after the first debate of the 2008 election season, Sept. 26, 2008, at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Miss. Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images hide caption

itoggle caption Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

Political Junkie

debate preparations i

Technicians make final preparations on the stage where the presidential candidates will debate on Oct. 6, 2008, in Nashville, Tenn. at Belmont University. Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images hide caption

itoggle caption Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images
debate preparations

Technicians make final preparations on the stage where the presidential candidates will debate on Oct. 6, 2008, in Nashville, Tenn. at Belmont University.

Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images

Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama go into their second presidential debate Tuesday night with a lot to live up to.

They need to reclaim the spotlight from their vice presidential running mates and sharpen the distinctions between them. And they'll have to do it in a format that will require different debating skills.

In their first debate, the two men at the top of the Republican and Democratic tickets drew more than 50 million viewers. But that audience paled in comparison to the more than 70 million people who tuned in to watch the face-off between their running mates, Democratic Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and Republican Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. While those numbers were driven in part by curiosity about how Palin would perform, they drew attention from the main players and their policies.

In the earlier matchup, McCain sought to portray Obama as untested and inexperienced. Obama tried to show McCain as a follower of President Bush who would simply continue the same policies. Although the debate was billed as a discussion of foreign policy and national security — generally considered to be McCain's strong points — those issues were inevitably overshadowed by the financial crisis, a topic where national polls show Obama has an advantage.

Emphasis On The Economy

Unlike the first debate, in which the candidates — despite the urging of moderator Jim Lehrer — seemed to address the cameras more than they did each other, Tuesday night's debate will follow a town-hall format.

Lehrer held tight control of the format, asking the questions and giving each candidate two minutes to answer, followed by a five-minute discussion. The candidates rarely engaged each other. Critics faulted McCain for seeming to ignore his rival's presence altogether at times. Others chastised Obama for seeming too deferential, prefacing several answers by saying that his rival was "absolutely right."

It wasn't exactly high praise, because the Democrat qualified each of those compliments by suggesting that McCain was wrong on the larger issues. But in hindsight, it gave the McCain camp fodder for a campaign ad that made it seem as though Obama had conceded on subject after subject.

By contrast, in Tuesday night's debate at Belmont University in Nashville, the candidates will answer questions posed by members of the audience or sent via the Internet. For that reason, it's likely to focus even more intensely on voters' economic concerns.

Look for the candidates to spar over what measures they would take to support Main Street after the Wall Street bailout. They'll probably also have to address government spending in the face of an ever-yawning deficit.

McCain said in the last debate that he would consider freezing spending for everything but defense, veterans' affairs and entitlement programs. Obama said he believes the economy will need more spending on infrastructure, and that programs such as earlier childhood education are currently underfunded.

Regardless of the questions asked, both candidates will likely bring up their tax plans. Obama likes to link McCain's tax-cut plan to the Bush administration's tax breaks for wealthier Americans. Obama says his plan closes tax loopholes for big corporations but reduces taxes for the 95 percent of Americans who make less than $250,000 per year. McCain says his proposals will create jobs, but his way of doing that involves cutting corporate income taxes, which would mainly benefit better-off people who own stocks.

Faster-Paced Exchange?

As moderator, NBC newsman Tom Brokaw will give each candidate two minutes to respond to each question, followed by a minute for further discussion.

The format may not allow the same in-depth answers as in the first debate, but it could make for a wider-ranging discussion. The vice presidential debate was praised for being fast moving, with Palin and Biden responding under similar time constraints.

McCain favors the more casual town-hall format, where he tends to perform better than in his stump speeches. His campaign called on Obama to hold 10 joint town-hall meetings over the summer, but Obama declined, saying three debates would be enough.

The audience for Tuesday night's debate will include 80 to 120 voters from the Nashville area, identified as "undecided" by surveyors from the Gallup Organization.

Changed Electoral Map

In the less than two weeks since McCain and Obama had their first debate, the electoral map has shifted, largely in Obama's favor. On Thursday, just before the vice presidential debate, McCain's campaign decided to cut potential losses in Michigan, dropping TV ads and moving staff to more competitive states.

The economic crisis has strengthened Obama in some battleground states, including Colorado, Missouri and Florida — states that George W. Bush won in 2004. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll shows Obama holding on to a narrow lead in Virginia, and McCain staying slightly ahead in Ohio.

Some McCain staffers who were pulled off the effort in Michigan may be sent to shore up the campaign's efforts in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire.

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