Bush Joins Growing Rebuke Of Mugabe

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MICHEL MARTIN, host:

I am Michel Martin, and this is Tell Me More from NPR News. Coming up, the latest on Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who was arrested yesterday along with his chief of staff. They are charged with conspiring to sell the U.S. Senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama. We are going to hear from one of Chicago's most prominent local journalists about the story in just a few minutes. But first, to the crisis in Zimbabwe.

President Bush says it is time for Robert Mugabe to step down. In a statement issue yesterday, Mr. Bush became the latest current and former world leader to demand Mr. Mugabe's resignation, as a cholera epidemic has claimed the lives of hundreds in Zimbabwe and sickened thousands more without an effective response from the Mugabe government. Cholera is just the latest crisis to hit the African nation that was once considered the breadbasket of the region, but is now suffering from hyper-inflation and an ongoing political stalemate after disputed elections earlier this year.

Joining me to talk about this is Jendayi Frazer. She is the assistant secretary of state for african affairs. She was kind enough to join me in the Washington, D.C. studio. She is also a former ambassador to South Africa, which is why I will be addressing her as ambassador. Ambassador, welcome back to the program. Thanks for joining us.

Ambassador JENDAYI FRAZER (Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Former Ambassador to South Africa): Thank you for having me.

MARTIN: Zimbabwe's health minister has called the cholera epidemic a national emergency. Is it?

Amb. FRAZER: It is indeed a national emergency, and it reflects the complete breakdown of the infrastructure of the social service delivery systems in Zimbabwe. And it's not only a national emergency, but it's becoming increasingly a regional emergency because many people with cholera are crossing into border countries, especially South Africa.

MARTIN: How has is public health emergency related to the ongoing political crisis there?

Amb. FRAZER: Well, I think it certainly reflects the fact the you don't have really a legitimate government in place. And so that government that is there is not delivering social services. The economy is in complete failure. The health systems have - many of the hospitals have closed. You have medical workers, health workers on strike, and the government is not able to address this crisis because of the failure of the economy.

MARTIN: As many will recall, but to just to review for those who don't, that national elections were held in March, which the opposition and the U.S. government believes the opposition won outright, but Mr. Mugabe refused to step aside. He insisted on a runoff in June. Now, the opposition boycotted the runoff because there had been, as they say, so much violence directed at their supporters. But nevertheless, in the wake of that, a power-sharing deal was worked out in June. So what's the status of that?

Amb. FRAZER: Well, the power-sharing agreement is pretty much still-born. There was a very big ceremony in September to welcome in this power-sharing deal, but we didn't have Robert Mugabe honoring the spirit of the agreement that he signed.

And in particular, the Movement for Democratic Change felt that he would not do the distribution of the ministries fairly. He was trying to take all of the power ministries and give them some of the more minor ministries. So that was the first part of the breakdown.

He also, for example, reappointed the reserve bank governor for another five-year term, when that was supposed to be decided by the new president and new prime minister under this power-sharing agreement. So he already has violated even the spirit of that agreement.

MARTIN: Morgan Tsvangirai is the head of the Movement for Democratic Change. He was supposed to be named prime minister under the deal. Where is he now?

Amb. FRAZER: Morgan has been - he went to South Africa. The latest I heard is, he is in Botswana. He's been traveling around trying to mobilize support for putting pressure on Mugabe to either honor the agreement or look for another way if in fact a government of national unity is not viable with Mugabe in the office of the president.

MARTIN: As we mentioned, President Bush is part of a chorus of leaders, including Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who've urged Mugabe to relinquish power in Zimbabwe but to no effect so far. So what leverage is there?

Amb. FRAZER: Well, I think that the critical point is that the region itself has to deal with the crisis -the political crisis in Zimbabwe. And so, we have certainly been in serious consultation, extensive consultation with regional leaders to try to figure out how -what are their next steps. I think that we all feel that it is time now for President Mugabe to relinquish that office and to allow the country to move forward.

MARTIN: Very strong statements from the Kenyan government about Mugabe, but South Africa, its neighbor, has its own political difficulties. There is currently an interim president serving after Thabo Mbeki stepped down because of his own political problems earlier this year. Is there any effective pressure coming from South Africa? Thabo Mbeki was the person who we helped broker the power-sharing deal between Mugabe and Tsvangirai, but is it just stasis there?

Amb. FRAZER: Well, the South Africans are key. They have direct national interest at stake. As I said, many of these cholera victims are crossing into South Africa itself. In fact, in their own population, there are at least 3 million Zimbabweans there. As you said, the mediation process was in the hands of former President Mbeki. That seems to have failed.

And so the leadership of the new president, the ANC, and the South African government as a whole is going to be key to bringing the pressure to bare on Mugabe to try to, in a sense, stop holding the country hostage to his desire to just remain in power for so many years.

MARTIN: You've been working on this for a very long time.

Amb. FRAZER: Yes.

MARTIN: Are you - do you have any sense of optimism that this is actually going to be resolved, perhaps before you leave office in January?

Amb. FRAZER: This is one of the easier ones to resolve in Africa. It is easy to resolve because in a sense, there's one man and his cronies who are responsible for the decline, the deterioration of that country, the significant decline and deterioration. And so, if there could be some type of succession within Zanu PF, within that party, I think that it would unlock a solution for resolving the health crisis, the food crisis, the political impasse, the economic failure.

What we have in Zimbabwe is a failing state. And the international community is watching that country fall apart, and that's irresponsible. We have to take proactive measures now and actions, which is why Secretary Rice and President Bush and so many other leaders, including across Africa. Archbishop Tutu and others have said that enough is enough. It is really time for this man to go.

MARTIN: If you're just joining us, you're listening to Tell Me More from NPR News. We're speaking with Jandayi Frazer, she is the assistant secretary of state for African affairs, about the situation in Zimbabwe. But what proactive steps?

Amb. FRAZER: Well, again, as I said, the real leverage here comes from within the region. The Southern African Development Community specifically needs to find a mediator who can help the Zimbabwean politicians find a way out.

We thought that a government of national unity through power-sharing was going to be the approach. We all backed the region when they said that that was the approach that they preferred. They put the pressure - the international community put the pressure on Mugabe to negotiate. They signed the deal, and then he reneged immediately. So it suggests that power sharing and a government of national unity with him in the office of the presidency will not work.

So then the next step is, what are the options? You could look at him stepping down from the office of the presidency, there being a succession plan. Constitutionally, I would assume that that means the vice president would step up. They could then have a caretaker government that puts in place the constitutional reforms that are necessary and quickly organizes an election, so that, again, the people of Zimbabwe will decide who will govern them.

MARTIN: Ambassador, we only have a couple of minutes left, and I hope that we'll find a time for you to come back before you leave office, so we can talk about some of the state of affairs in the region.

But in the time that we have left, I wanted to ask you about - we do have a new administration coming to Washington. I'd like to ask what course you recommend to secretary - the incoming secretary of state, if she's confirmed, Hillary Clinton, and President-elect Obama to pursue in the region?

If you'd just take a minute to think about the state of affairs in the region. I know you were quoted earlier this year as saying that the ongoing set of negative drumbeat of news coming out of Africa actually has a negative effect on their economic development. It actually costs some percentage points in GDP.

On the other hand, you know, there have been political crises in Zimbabwe and Kenya, but then there have been positive developments in Liberia, other places. So when you think back to where we started out eight years ago, where we are now in assessing U.S. relations with the region and where the continent is in developing, how do you assess it?

Amb. FRAZER: Well, I think the continent...

MARTIN: All that in two minutes.

Amb. FRAZER: I think Africa has advanced significantly over the past eight years. Many wars have ended. You have the war in Sierra Leone, the war in Liberia, the war in Burundi, the north-south war between - in Sudan between the north and the National Congress Party and the SPLM, the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement. And so, the war in Angola has also come to an end. We've had an historic election in Congo. We still have a lot of conflict in the east. So, there is still significant work to be done.

But if you look at the general trends, you've had many more wars ending than new conflicts starting. You also have significant economic growth over this past decade. Most countries have been at a growth rate of six percent GDP growth. That's unlike Zimbabwe, which has actually had a negative six percent GDP growth. Even Somalia has had higher GDP growth than Zimbabwe, and we know the Somalia is basically a failed state.

And then, if you look at the political process, the political advancement, the democracy agenda, we have many more countries that have democratically-elected presidents and have had good elections. And so, obviously, when you - if Freedom House looks at it, there are - at least three quarters of the countries are now classified as free or partially free. A decade ago, that was just the opposite.

So, I think that really - there's a lot to be proud of in terms of the Bush administration's policies on Africa. We just reached a mark where two billion - or two million people who are on antiretroviral drugs from 50,000 in 2000, 2001. And so there has been significant progress across the continent over these last 10 years.

MARTIN: So if we were to reconnect 10 years from now, what kind of conversation will we have?

Amb. FRAZER: Well...

MARTIN: Will we still be talking about war and cholera epidemics?

Amb. FRAZER: To be honest with you, I suspect that we will, and I think that that really has to do with failed leadership. And there are always going to be individuals who will destroy their country. What the hope for Africa is is the growth to civil society, holding their leaders accountable, and the development of the institutions.

National electoral commissions, for example, are going to be key to holding credible elections. That is part of allowing the citizens to hold their leaders accountable. So, I'm optimistic, but I understand that there is still quite a lot of work to be done.

MARTIN: Jendayi Frazer is the assistant secretary of state for African affairs, a former ambassador to South Africa. She was kind enough to join us in our Washington, D.C. studios. Madam Ambassador, thank you so much for speaking with us.

Amb. FRAZER: Thank you very much.

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