MELISSA BLOCK, host:

The government of Iran has also been watching events in Syria with growing alarm. Syria is one of Iran's few real friends in the Middle East, a relationship they have carefully cultivated for more than 30 years. Among other benefits, the connection is crucial for Iran's aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, falls, Iran can no longer count on Syria.

More now from NPR's Mike Shuster.

MIKE SHUSTER: Iran's government celebrated the popular uprisings first in Tunisia, then in Egypt and in Bahrain and Yemen, but then came the protests in Syria. Iran turned uneasy and uncertain. No longer was it a simple matter of praising the people in the streets and condemning their rulers, notes Bruce Riedel, a Middle East analyst at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center.

Mr. BRUCE RIEDEL (Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution): If the Syrian government is toppled, in a revolution like Egypt's or Tunisia's, Iran will be the big loser, and the Iranian intelligence services will have lost a key ally in their ability to project power in the Middle East.

SHUSTER: Iran's news media have gone quiet on Syria. Iranians must rely on satellite TV for coverage of the protests there. And as the protests in Syria have spread and hundreds of people have been shot, Iran's leaders have said next to nothing.

Ms. HALEH ESFANDIARI (Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars): They really are at a lost.

SHUSTER: Haleh Esfandiari heads the Middle East program at Wilson International Center in Washington. The Iranian leaders simply cannot take up the cause of the Syrian protesters as they did with earlier Arab demonstrations.

Ms. ESFANDIARI: So the best excuse is to blame it not on the grievances of the population but say that these are foreign-instigated uprisings by the Israelis and the Americans.

President MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD (Iran): (Foreign language spoken)

SHUSTER: That's exactly what Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said in a speech a few days ago. The enemy's conspiracy is to spur war between the nations, Ahmadinejad said. They want to create Iranian-Arab and Shiite-Sunni tension. This is all plotted by the United States and its allies, he said.

For its part, the U.S. has accused Iran of helping Syria put down the protests and providing it with technology and training that proved effective in quelling Iran's own street protests after the disputed presidential election in 2009.

Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, repeated that charge earlier this week.

Ambassador SUSAN RICE (United Nations): President Assad is disingenuously blaming outsiders while at the same time seeking Iranian assistance in repressing Syria's citizens through the same brutal tactics that have been used by the Iranian regime.

Mr. REUEL MARC GERECHT (Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies): That makes perfect sense that the Iranians would be helping them, and I'm sure helping them fairly aggressively.

SHUSTER: Reuel Marc Gerecht is a former CIA agent, now a Middle East specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Gerecht says the Iranians fear they will lose access and influence in Lebanon if Assad loses his grip on power in Damascus. And Hezbollah will lose its primary supply line for weapons, especially for missiles. Hezbollah received thousands of missiles from Iran, which it used against Israel in 2006.

Mr. GERECHT: Without the Syrian pipeline, then the Hezbollah - if they could have another war with Israel - will run out of weaponry. And they need to have that land route.

SHUSTER: This is all putting great stress on the Iranian leadership. And it's not a good time for Iran's intelligence services. A very public fight has broken out over the fate of Iran's intelligence minister, Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad has tried to fire him; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants him to remain in place.

Bruce Riedel says Iran's intelligence services, no matter who is their leader, didn't see this Syria trouble coming.

Mr. RIEDEL: The questions will be asked: Who lost Syria? And the Iranian intelligence service will probably be blamed.

SHUSTER: Blamed for not seeing it, but perhaps more seriously, blamed for leaving Tehran even more isolated in the Middle East than it has been in the past.

Mike Shuster, NPR News.

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