AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Audie Cornish.
MELISSA BLOCK, HOST:
And I'm Melissa Block. We begin this hour in one of the perennial battlegrounds in presidential elections, Florida. And within Florida, the area around Orlando is a battlefield where the terrain has changed radically. It used to be a toss up, but four years ago, Barack Obama won in Orlando - or technically in Orange County, Florida - with 59 percent of the vote.
So, what happened in Orlando? Our co-host Robert Siegel is there to find out.
ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:
Several things happened here. The Democrats registered a lot of black voters. Barack Obama ran well among independents. But the biggest difference was the number of new arrivals to the area. Political scientist Rick Foglesong of Rollins College says it matters who those new arrivals were.
RICK FOGLESONG: In the three-county Orlando metropolitan area, the population has grown by 460,000 in the last decade; of that, 250,000 was Puerto Rican.
SIEGEL: There are now almost as many Puerto Ricans in Florida as Cubans. And around Orlando there are far more. They trend Democratic. So the question here isn't which party will carry the Orlando area, but by how much will the Democrats win? Or, for the local Republicans, how much can they cut into the Democrats' margin?
This year, the GOP has beefed up its phone bank operations.
(SOUNDBITE OF PHONE CALL)
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN #1: Hi, this Barbie calling from the Republican Party in Florida. Do you have about 30 seconds to take a very brief survey?
SIEGEL: Lew Oliver is the Orange County Republican chairman.
LEW OLIVER: Our phone operations have now been fully computerized. When I started this business many years ago, we were, you know, dialing rotary telephones and now we have Voice-over-Internet Protocol phones, where the phone pretty much does all the work for us, including leaving voice mail messages, dialing the number, that kind of stuff. And that allows us to go much, much faster.
(SOUNDBITE OF TELEPHONE SURVEY)
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN #1: OK. The first question is do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
SIEGEL: Republican chairman Oliver says most people have made up their minds, so find the ones whose minds are set against President Obama - and there are plenty of them - and get them to vote early.
OLIVER: I would be elated if we could get 60 percent of our voters, who were going to vote, to vote prior to Election Day. Last election cycle, it approached 50.
SIEGEL: Polls show Florida is very close. Around Orlando, the economy is still sour, but people are buying homes again, at lower prices. Latino voters nationally tend to prefer Obama to Governor Mitt Romney 2-1. I met with Lew Oliver's Democratic counterpart, Orange County chair Scott Randolph, and the state party's head of Hispanic outreach, Betsy Franceschini, at one of Orlando's many Puerto Rican Restaurants.
Scott Randolph concedes that while the intensity of support for President Obama among Democrats may not match that of Republican antipathy for him, he'll still win here.
SCOTT RANDOLPH: I mean, the Democrats were sort of in that situation back in 2004. No doubt Republicans hated George Bush. I mean, there were plenty of Republicans that were not excited, really, about George Bush, but we nominated somebody that didn't motivate our base.
SIEGEL: John Kerry. Randolph says the Democrats have been hampered by Florida's new election law, which makes voter registration more difficult. Betsy Franceschini, who was born in Puerto Rico, says the Democrats' appeal to Puerto Rican voters is based on social and economic issues. But even on immigration, which isn't a problem for them since they're citizens, she says Puerto Ricans feel sympathy with Latino immigrants.
Franceschini says it's about racial profiling. Her own son, she says, was stopped by police while he was driving near his home in Tampa.
BETSY FRANCESCHINI: Actually, when they got him into the car, the police made a comment to the other police officer that was there. He says, oh, these Hispanics, we have to, you know, check them out. You know, and the charges were dropped. There was no reason for him to be stopped, but the only reason was that he looked Hispanic.
SIEGEL: So the argument goes, tough anti-immigration laws may not jeopardize Puerto Ricans, but they do connect with their experiences. Franceschini says President Obama scored points with Puerto Rican voters when he named Justice Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, and when he visited Puerto Rico. And as for the intense dislike that so many conservatives feel for the president...
FRANCESCHINI: It's a racial issue and we feel that and we know that.
SIEGEL: You're saying some of the negative attitude toward President Obama...
FRANCESCHINI: Is similar to what we live as Hispanics, you know.
SIEGEL: So you empathize with the president.
FRANCESCHINI: Correct, correct.
SIEGEL: There is a Republican counter-narrative about Puerto Rican voters, and it goes this way. Some Puerto Ricans are up from the island, where they may well have been Republican. Some are from the north, but the old politics of New York City or Chicago may be wearing off. Puerto Ricans, after all, are often socially conservative, pro-military, and they often run small businesses.
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN #2: So let's get started. Good morning, everybody.
UNIDENTIFIED GROUP: Good morning.
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN #2: That was kind of weak. You know that I don't believe in that. So good morning, everybody.
UNIDENTIFIED GROUP: Good morning.
SIEGEL: Latino businessmen and women meet regularly at the Chamber of Commerce in Kissimmee, just south of Orlando. It's a majority Hispanic town, and a majority of the Hispanics are Puerto Rican. The president of this group, Nancy Ellis, was born in the Bronx and grew up in Queens, New York.
NANCY ELLIS: You know, I was raised as a Democrat, OK? Now, did I know why I was a Democrat? Nope. Am I learning about why I'm a Democrat? Yes. Could I be a Republican? Possibly. I'm on the cusp at this point, because I do like what some Republicans have to offer. But on the other hand, I like what Democrats stand for. And that's because, I guess, I'm a humanitarian.
SIEGEL: Nancy Ellis is still high on President Obama, but she says she's leaning Republican in the local House race. Rafael Caamano runs the University of Central Florida's Business Incubator, helping local entrepreneurs. He was born in Puerto Rico and came to Kissimmee when he was in high school. He says he was one of just four Puerto Ricans in the school back then.
He spent nine years in the Army, went into and out of business, and is a registered Republican.
RAFAEL CAAMANO: When you come out of the island, that's the mentality. But being here for so long, your mind starts changing and you start looking at other views. I'm speaking as someone coming straight from the island because sometimes you get into areas where once the smoke starts clearing, then you start realizing there's other things than smoke.
SIEGEL: Does Obama have a chance for your vote or has he lost it?
CAAMANO: No, I think there's still a chance.
SIEGEL: There's another legacy of the island experience that the local Democrats I met spoke of - big turnouts every four years, and very little voting in between. In 2010, turnout here dropped by about a third. Democrats lost. People who watch the electoral map often say this about Florida. There are scenarios in which Obama loses the state but wins re-election. But for the Republicans, it's very hard to build a majority without winning this battleground state.
In Orlando, this is Robert Siegel.