ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Robert Siegel.
MELISSA BLOCK, HOST:
And I'm Melissa Block. The drumbeat to change China's one-child policy continues to grow louder. This week, separate groups of professors and government researchers urged the country's leadership to loosen the limits on family size. Those pleas come after gruesome photos of a 7-month-old fetus whose mother was forced to have abortion spread across the Internet last month. Increasingly, Chinese scholars say the government's population policy is not only inhumane, it's also creating a demographic disaster, one that will leave China with far fewer workers and more elderly people to take care of. NPR's Frank Langfitt reports from Shanghai.
FRANK LANGFITT, BYLINE: Deng Jiyuan and Feng Jianmei have a 6-year-old daughter. Under China's complicated birth calculus, they were barred from having another child, but they tried anyway. Deng explained the couple's situation by phone last month from his home in northwest China's Shaanxi province.
DENG JIYUAN: (Through Translator) We planned this pregnancy because our parents are old. They want us to have another child.
LANGFITT: After local family planning officials learned Feng was expecting, they demanded more than $6,000 in fines. When the couple failed to pay, officials covered Feng's head with clothing, abducted her and held her for three days. Then Deng says he got a call from a local family planning official.
JIYUAN: (Through Translator) He said I told you a long time ago that you should have gotten the money ready, and you didn't. An one hour later, my wife called and said it was too late. She had gotten an injection.
LANGFITT: The injection induced labor and ensured the couple's 7-month-old fetus was stillborn. Deng was furious.
JIYUAN: (Foreign language spoken)
LANGFITT: We want justice, he says. I want those gangster-like officials to be punished. Then family members uploaded a photo of the dead child to the Internet, and the story exploded. Last week, the government announced it had fired one local official and punished others involved in the case. Deng says China's population policy is out of control.
JIYUAN: (Through Translator) If the one-child policy was to continue, then after 100 years, there would be very few people left in China.
LANGFITT: That, of course, is hyperbole. China has more than 1.3 billion people. But Deng is on to something. Demographers and economists say restrictions on births aren't helping China but hurting it.
ZHENG ZHENZHEN: In the field of population studies, everybody think the policy should be modified.
JAMES LIANG: Well, it's actually a pretty absurd policy.
WANG FENG: Phasing out the policy should have started at least 10 years ago.
LANGFITT: That's Zheng Zhenzhen, a demographer with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; James Liang, a leading businessman in Shanghai; and Wang Feng, who runs the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing. Wang says the problem now isn't that Chinese couples are having too many kids. It's that they're having too few. Last year, census results showed what demographers had long suspected. The fertility rate is very low.
FENG: For each couple, the expected number of children in their lifetime is 1.5.
LANGFITT: That's well below the number needed to replace China's current population, and so Wang says this dynamic country - now widely seen as a world-beater - is fated to age very rapidly.
FENG: The magnitude of the challenge brought about by population aging is mind-boggling. China now has about 180 million elderly population. In less than 20 years, by 2030, that number is going to be 360 million. That's going to be larger than the total population of the United States right now.
LANGFITT: How is the country going to pay for that?
FENG: It's a very scary situation.
LANGFITT: As the population ages, health care costs are expected to soar. And with couples having fewer kids, there will be far fewer workers to pay for that health care. Again, Wang Feng.
FENG: I think the harm has already been done. So even if China, say, stopped one-child policy tomorrow, this new birth would not become adult labor until 20 years from now.
LIANG: The situation is actually pretty gloomy, pretty bad, pretty urgent.
LANGFITT: James Liang is an economist and chairman of Ctrip.com - the Expedia of China. He published a book this spring, arguing that as Japan's workforce aged, innovation and entrepreneurship suffered and contributed to the country's economic stagnation. He worries the same thing will happen to China. Liang fears young Chinese professionals will get trapped behind a bigger generation on the career ladder, and much of the innovative energy that fires an economy will be lost.
LIANG: If China got into this problem of aging and China is not as creative as other economies, China will definitely hit some bottleneck in terms of economic or competitiveness.
LANGFITT: China's one-child policy has loosened over the years. For instance, parents who were only children have long been allowed to have two kids, but government officials fear further relaxation could spark a new baby boom. Zhang Yanyun tells a very different story. Zhang paints buildings in East China's Jiangsu province. I met him recently outside a KFC. Through a provision in the population policy, Zhang and his wife were able to have three kids. He wishes they hadn't.
ZHANG YANYUN: (Through Translator) Just my son's baby formula and snacks cost at least three bucks a day. That's 95 bucks a month. I really feel like I'm being suffocated. Honestly, my wife and I can hardly buy any new clothes in a year. It is too hard to raise a child. I can't afford it. I certainly would have preferred to have had only one child.
LANGFITT: Zheng Zhenzhen, the Chinese demographer, says people like Zhang are typical. She's surveyed more than 2,000 women of childbearing age in Jiangsu. Most didn't want another child.
ZHENZHEN: We found that have less children is a very widely observed norm. Even the farmers, they don't want too many children, just one or two.
LANGFITT: Family planning workers are aware of this research but must enforce the rules. Some are riddled with guilt. Zhang Erli used to work as a high-ranking official with the National Population and Family Planning Commission. Last month, he made an extraordinary, tearful apology on TV to the millions of women who've had to end their pregnancies because of the policy.
ZHANG ERLI: (Through Translator) I felt sorry for our Chinese women. I feel quite guilty. Chinese women have made huge sacrifices. A responsible government should repay them.
LANGFITT: So given the demographic data, the public anger and the official guilt, why not declare victory and change the policy? NPR requested an interview with China's family planning commission. It never responded. Demographers say some officials are reluctant to make changes because they still think China has too many people, and China's current leadership is cautious and risk averse. Again, Zheng Zhenzhen of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
ZHENZHEN: China is a huge boat, and you cannot make a sharp turn, right? You do things gradually. I agree with that, but at least, we need to move.
LANGFITT: As for the couple from northwest China that had to abort their fetus, they're still angry and scared. Local officials led villagers to denounce the couple as traitors for speaking to foreign media. The husband, Deng, was attacked and went into hiding. Last week, he surfaced in Beijing. He's thinking about suing the Chinese government. Frank Langfitt, NPR News, Shanghai.