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RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:

In Afghanistan, NATO officials were hoping insurgent attacks would taper off during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Instead, the Taliban and groups loosely allied with it appear to be pressing ahead with a summer offensive.

More than a dozen NATO troops and contractors have been killed since the beginning of Ramadan last Friday.

NPR's Sean Carberry reports.

(SOUNDBITE OF CROWD CHATTER)

SEAN CARBERRY, BYLINE: Scattered villages of mud houses emerge from the sandy hills of Muqur in the northwestern province of Badghis. Spanish and Afghan troops are conducting a joint patrol near the small NATO base here. The northwest is one of the quieter parts of Afghanistan, but the province still sees its share of violence. Brigadier General Daoud Shah Wafadar, the Afghan army commander for the province, spoke in an air-conditioned tent after the patrol.

BRIGADIER GENERAL DAOUD SHAH WAFADAR: (Foreign language spoken)

CARBERRY: He says that there's more violence in the country this year, but here in Badghis, the attacks are mostly scattered assaults by small groups of gunmen firing on coalition or Afghan forces.

(SOUNDBITE OF HELICOPTER)

CARBERRY: There are some IED attacks, as well. Shortly after the general spoke, a NATO helicopter flew in to pick up a local civilian injured by an IED explosion not far from the base.

(SOUNDBITE OF HELICOPTER)

CARBERRY: As you move south and east in the country, the violence grows significantly. On average, there's at least one NATO troop and several civilians killed each day, mostly in the south and east.

BRIGADIER GENERAL GUNTHER KATZ: They are going more toward unarmed targets, civilian targets, targets that cannot defend themselves.

CARBERRY: Brigadier General Gunther Katz is the NATO spokesman. Citing UN statistics, he says that around 80 percent of civilian casualties are caused by insurgents. NATO says that the number of attacks by IEDs is on the rise, and they account for roughly 50 percent of incidents in the country.

BRIGADIER GENERAL ROGER NOBLE: One of the reasons you use an IED is because it allows you to attack without exposing yourself to risk.

CARBERRY: Brigadier General Roger Noble is deputy to the deputy chief of staff of operations in Afghanistan. He says the increasing use of indiscriminate weapons is a sign the insurgency is disorganized and unable to fight head-on with coalition and Afghan forces.

SETH JONES: It is indicative of an insurgency that is not as homogeneous as some make it out to be.

CARBERRY: That's Seth Jones. He's a counterinsurgency expert with the RAND Corporation who has served as an adviser in Afghanistan. He says the disparate insurgent groups sometimes cooperate and sometimes compete.

JONES: I think it's likely that we'll probably see an increase in red-on-red fighting - that is, insurgent groups on the ground fighting each other over control of area.

CARBERRY: Up until now, the fighting has followed a predictable pattern: a lull in winter, a brief surge in spring, and then comes poppy season. Insurgents harvest poppies to help finance their efforts, says General Katz.

KATZ: Due to the very harsh and strong winter, the poppy harvest was significantly reduced. It means more fighters were able to go to their weapons and start fighting.

CARBERRY: This year's poppy season was two weeks instead of six. That means the summer offensive started earlier, which helps explain why violence is up about 10 percent this season. But General Noble says more of it is happening away from large population centers.

NOBLE: The real difference is not the number of the attacks, because there are still plenty of them. It's more where the fight's taking place. And this year, we're seeing it more and more taking place on the insurgent's ground.

CARBERRY: But the concern is that insurgents are simply being pushed around rather than eliminated. And that's another source of anxiety for civilians who are watching NATO troops draw down, while insurgents - at least this summer - are ramping things up. Sean Carberry, NPR News, Kabul.

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