STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The al-Qaida branch office in Iraq is back. Iraqis turned against al-Qaida years ago, you may recall, and routed al-Qaida with American help back in 2007. But in 2012, the terror group has taken responsibility for a series of bloody attacks. Al-Qaida made July the bloodiest month in Iraq in more than two years, and is now looking to extend its reach into Syria. NPR's Dina Temple-Raston reports.
DINA TEMPLE-RASTON, BYLINE: Late last month, counterterrorism officials discovered a disturbing video on the Internet. It showed a faction of the Syrian rebel army standing in front of a fluttering black banner. The mysterious flag, which read no god but God in white Arabic cursive, is thought to be a reproduction of the Prophet Muhammad's battle flag. It's also become al-Qaida in Iraq's calling card in Syria.
MATTHEW OLSEN: You know, obviously, Syria is a place that we're spending a lot of time.
TEMPLE-RASTON: That's Matthew Olsen. He's the head of the National Counterterrorism Center.
OLSEN: It's a difficult picture because of the nature of the opposition, and Syria presents a real difficult intelligence challenge for us. But it is clearly one of the things that we're very focused on, is trying to figure at what level, if at all, al-Qaida in Iraq is present in Syria.
TEMPLE-RASTON: Olsen was speaking recently at the Aspen Security Forum. And since January, he and other counterterrorism officials have been trying to figure out what proportion of the fighters streaming into Syria from Iraq are actually al-Qaida members.
The State Department's top counterterrorism official, Daniel Benjamin, said that in many ways, al-Qaida's possible move into Syria is no surprise. Chaos reigns today in Syria, and al-Qaida gravitates toward chaos.
DANIEL BENJAMIN: So long as Assad refuses to go and Syria's transition is blocked, the danger grows of more foreign fighters, including extremists of the al-Qaida type, infiltrating Syria.
TEMPLE-RASTON: Infiltration: That's the key. The concern isn't so much about fighters in videos flying black banners. Again, Daniel Benjamin.
BENJAMIN: I think our concern is about individuals who are trying to pass themselves off as something that they aren't and gaining a foothold in various organizations that way.
BRUCE HOFFMAN: Al-Qaida in almost all the venues that it's active throughout the world, their modus operandi is to imbed their fighters in existing local forces.
TEMPLE-RASTON: Bruce Hoffman is a professor of terrorism studies at Georgetown University.
HOFFMAN: And the key here is that al-Qaida is not waging these struggles as independent units, but rather they're presenting themselves or offering their fighters as, in essence, force multipliers.
TEMPLE-RASTON: In other words, al-Qaida members who have had previous combat experience are offering to help the local forces be more effective. And Hoffman says that may be too good an offer for Syrian rebels to refuse as they battle against the well-armed Assad regime.
The concern is that if Assad falls, al-Qaida may be able to leverage their willingness to fight now into something bigger, like attacks against the West, later on.
HOFFMAN: In the past, they've actually been very effective in co-opting the local agenda of these groups.
TEMPLE-RASTON: Again, Georgetown's Bruce Hoffman.
HOFFMAN: We've seen it certainly with the Pakistani Taliban that, of course, staged the 2010 Times Square attempted bombing. We've seen it certainly with al-Shabab in Somalia. So, it's - for al-Qaida, it's - in essence, one unfortunately has to say - a proven strategy.
TEMPLE-RASTON: The U.S. says it has spoken with the Syrian opposition and warned them that al-Qaida fighters might be trying to sneak into their ranks.
Dina Temple-Raston, NPR News.
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