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We're going to look to the future now of Afghanistan. Yesterday, we heard what might happen after the long-awaited drawdown of U.S. and NATO combat forces in 2014. Today, the consequences for its notoriously unstable neighbor, Pakistan. Some analysts believe Pakistani leaders are so worried about what might happen without those troops next door. They are rethinking decades of strategy. NPR's Philip Reeves reports.

PHILIP REEVES, BYLINE: Burhan Khan can't remember exactly when he fled from Afghanistan. He says about 30 years ago. But he can remember why.

BURHAN KHAN: (Through Translator) Because there was war. There was killing, there was murdering, and there was firing, and they wanted to kill me, and they wanted to kill my children, so I had to come here.

REEVES: It was the final phase of the Cold War. CIA-armed Afghan guerillas were fighting to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan. Khan and his family wound up here, in a mud hovel on a patch of wasteland outside Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.

Khan is 60, though his full white beard and deeply lined face make him look a lot older. He survives by hauling vegetables in a market. Khan has never returned to his home in Kunduz, northern Afghanistan. He feels it's still too dangerous to try.

KHAN: (Through Translator) We can't go there because if we go, we will die there. Our children will be killed. Everybody is killing us there.

REEVES: Each big new conflict in Afghanistan over the last three decades has unleashed a wave of refugees. Many have gone back, yet Pakistan still has some 1.7 million refugees on its soil, mostly Afghans. Pakistanis fear another wave will arrive because of the fallout after 2014 from the drawdown of U.S. and NATO forces.

PERVEZ HOODBHOY: With the American departure, I feel that civil war is almost a certainty in Afghanistan.

REEVES: That's Pervez Hoodbhoy, a leading political activist and commentator. He wants U.S. forces to leave Afghanistan but says their withdrawal should be gradual. Even so, he's very worried about what happens next.

HOODBHOY: It's going to be ugly, bloody. And nobody is looking forward to 2014 except for the Taliban.

REEVES: Pakistan is going through a particularly rocky period in its turbulent history. The economy is in crisis. Conflict between Pakistani government forces and homegrown Islamist insurgents, including the Pakistani Taliban, has claimed tens of thousands of lives. Hoodbhoy believes if he's right and there is an Afghan civil war, refugees won't be the only threat to Pakistan.

HOODBHOY: We will see the Taliban will become much bolder. There will be a feeling amongst Islamist forces within this country, and not just the Taliban, that with the Americans now out of here, it's now time for an Islamic revolution in Pakistan.

REEVES: Fear that they'll soon face another bout of chaos and bloodshed is preying heavily on the minds of Pakistan's rulers. Pakistan's Afghan policy is determined by its military and intelligence services. Some Pakistani analysts see a significant shift in that policy, brought about by Pakistan's desire to avoid more instability and violence. They include Tariq Fatemi.

TARIQ FATEMI: I think Pakistan has learned its lesson. It recognizes that in Afghanistan, peace can prevail only when there is power sharing amongst the various ethnic groups.

REEVES: Fatemi is a former Pakistani Ambassador to Washington.

FATEMI: I've spoken to a lot of people who are holding key positions, and they tell me that they now recognize that these ambitious plans of wanting to determine Afghanistan's destiny was not only a failed policy but rather a policy that caused us immense harm.

REEVES: The policy Fatemi is talking about is basically this: Pakistan has always worried about being sandwiched between two hostile countries. To the east lies its old enemy, India. So for years, Pakistan sought to influence events in Afghanistan to the west by supporting its majority ethnic group, the Pashtuns. Pakistan helped the Taliban come to power in the mid-'90s. And in more recent years, Islamabad has often been accused of covertly supporting certain Pashtun militant groups, including the Taliban and the Haqqani network.

Pakistan has its own big population of Pashtuns. It's worked on the assumption that a Pashtun-run Afghanistan would be friendly and, it hoped, compliant. Maleeha Lodhi says that's all changed.

MALEEHA LODHI: One of the biggest mistakes that Pakistan made in the past is that it saw somehow a Pashtun solution to Afghanistan, whereas now it sees an Afghan solution to Afghanistan.

REEVES: Lodhi is also a former ambassador to Washington. She says Pakistan no longer talks about seeking a friendly government in Kabul, just a stable one.

LODHI: If any group is excluded from power, then there will be trouble in Afghanistan. That's a lesson of history that Pakistan has learned.

REEVES: Have Pakistan's policymakers really learned that lesson? Zahid Hussain has written several books about Pakistan and Islamist militancy. He is convinced the Pakistani military fully signed on to the new Afghan policy a while back.

ZAHID HUSSAIN: Absolutely. Absolutely. This is what is being said. It cannot be actually a policy without the approval of the Pakistani military establishment. I think there is complete unanimity on that.

REEVES: So it's over?

HUSSAIN: It's over.

REEVES: Pakistan's military and intelligence establishment is highly secretive. It's hard for outsiders to know what's going on within it. To this, Hoodbhoy points to deep internal divisions.

HOODBHOY: The army is torn from within. There is a part, and they are seriously at war with one part of the Taliban. On the other hand, there is a substantial group which aspires to right-wing Islamist ideology.

REEVES: Still, those seeking to forge peace in Afghanistan will surely welcome Pakistan's apparent new approach. Everyone knows, though, that it won't necessarily avert disaster. There are so many unanswered questions: What if Afghanistan's presidential elections, slated for spring 2014, end in turmoil? Will an Afghan peace process ever get off the ground? Deep distrust prevails between Afghanistan's ethnic groups. Back in his mud hovel, Burhan Khan, the Afghan refugee, is unsure if there'll ever be peace back home, or if he'll ever be able to return.

KHAN: (Foreign language spoken)

REEVES: Everyone back home knows one another, he explains. They remember who supported who in Afghanistan's wars. That means there are many unsettled scores. Philip Reeves, NPR News.

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