ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:
The mystery of the Dreamliner fire has baffled experts for a month. Our next story is about a mystery that's lasted roughly 66 million years. We've all heard that a huge asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs, but the truth is, no one has been able to show that it struck right before the extinction. Well, scientists now say they have proof as NPR's Adam Cole Reports.
ADAM COLE, BYLINE: Sixty-six million years ago, about three-quarters of all species on Earth disappeared, not just dinosaurs but most large mammals: fish, birds, even plankton. Scientists have known this for a long time just from looking at the fossil record. But they couldn't figure out exactly what had caused the mass extinction. Of course, there were lots of theories.
J. DAVID ARCHIBALD: Some of them are pretty wacky.
COLE: That's David Archibald, an evolutionary biologist from San Diego State University who has studied the mass extinction.
ARCHIBALD: Well, the really weird ones, of course, are space hunters came and killed them all off, they died of constipation, mammals ate their eggs.
COLE: Then, in 1980, a new theory surfaced.
ARCHIBALD: It's the one that everybody hears about all the time because it's the most dramatic.
COLE: Near what is now the town of Chicxulub in the Yucatan Peninsula, an asteroid more than five miles across slammed into the Earth, causing tsunamis and earthquakes and smothering the world in a cloud of dust. It sounds like a movie premise, but the Chicxulub impact left behind evidence: small blobs of glass and a dusting of iridium, an element that is rare on Earth but common in meteorites. Many scientists came to believe that the Chicxulub asteroid and it alone killed off the dinosaurs. And the public ate it up.
ARCHIBALD: Americans especially, we have a thing for big glitz and dramatic things. You know, instantaneous is better.
COLE: But the theory had its skeptics.
GERTA KELLER: My name is Gerta Keller.
COLE: She's a geologist from Princeton. And she has her own theories about the mass extinction.
KELLER: Vulcanism has played a major role.
COLE: She's not talking about Spock. She's talking about super volcanoes that spewed sulfur and carbon dioxide and poisoned the atmosphere. Keller says the dinosaurs were already on death's door by the time the asteroid showed up. And she says it's unclear when exactly the asteroid hit.
KELLER: If that is the cause, it had to be precisely at the time of the mass extinction. It can't be before and it can't be afterwards.
COLE: And Keller's data suggest that the impact happened about 100,000 years before the mass extinction. Previous studies put it 180,000 years after the dinosaurs died off. Enter Paul Renne, a geologist from the UC Berkeley. To pin down the date, he headed out to the badlands of Northeastern Montana.
PAUL RENNE: It's a region that has yielded a huge number of dinosaur fossils over the years.
COLE: Renne collected samples of ash that were deposited at the time of the mass extinction just above that treasure trove of fossils. He also obtained some of the glass blobs left by the Chicxulub impact. Measuring the rate of decay of radioactive potassium from these two samples, Renne was able to estimate the age of the impact and the age of the extinction.
RENNE: And lo and behold, they are exactly the same. The impact clearly occurred right at the extinction level.
COLE: The results are published in the journal Science. Gerta Keller thinks that Renne's dates are right. But his samples come from one site in Montana, and she says the conclusions he makes are contradicted by other samples from Texas where dating shows that the impact came long before the extinction. Still, there is one thing that Keller and Renne agree on: No matter when the asteroid hit...
RENNE: There were significant extinctions and ecological perturbations going on a million or two million years before the impact, so we think that something else was already happening.
COLE: And Renne says that something was probably the series of volcanic eruptions that Keller has studied. The next step will be to pin down the age of those eruptions. Renne and Keller will join Archibald and dozens of their colleagues at the Natural History Museum in London at the end of March to talk over their ideas.
KELLER: I'm looking forward to rather spirited discussions.
COLE: Adam Cole, NPR News.