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The controversy over the Keystone XL pipeline is heating up again. The State Department released a new environmental analysis of the project that would move oil from Canada to Kansas. It's only a draft, but it's kicking up a firestorm among environmentalists. There's going to be much more debate, though NPR's Elizabeth Shogren reports it's looking more likely that the pipeline will be built.

ELIZABETH SHOGREN, BYLINE: Environmentalists have a hope. If they can block the Keystone, they can keep Canada from developing so much of its dirty tar sands oil. It takes a lot more energy to get it out of the ground and turn it into gasoline, so it has a bigger greenhouse gas footprint than conventional oil. But the State Department report says the Keystone won't have much of an impact on the development of that oil from Alberta, Canada. Industry analyst Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners says that finding will make it easier for the Obama administration to say the project wouldn't affect climate change.

KEVIN BOOK: The State Department said we agree with industry. They're saying this oil would have gone to market anyway. And the facts are that the oil in the ground in Canada isn't going to stay there if there's a buyer somewhere else. And there is a buyer. The buyer's here in the U.S. right now, and the oil's coming here by train, by truck and, in some cases, by barge.

SHOGREN: It's also already flowing to the U.S. through existing pipelines. Industry experts do say in the short term, Keystone could get that oil flowing faster. Canadian investment researcher Chris Damas says the industry wants to increase production dramatically. And it's hard to see how trains could keep up, especially since there's already a big backlog for new tanker cars.

CHRIS DAMAS: Unless you can find a pipeline that can cross the border without presidential approval, I think that the Canadians - and I'm a proud Canadian - but we have a problem. We have landlocked oil. So there's no easy fix to this problem.

SHOGREN: Already, transportation constraints have driven down the price of Canadian oil. Damas says if that continues, producing this oil just won't be profitable anymore.

DAMAS: Meaning that if the price goes too low, these projects will slow down.

SHOGREN: Michael Brune is the executive director of the Sierra Club. He fears the State Department's analysis will push the Obama administration to OK the project.

MICHAEL BRUNE: This makes the president's job - to follow through on his commitment, to be tough on climate change - it makes that job much more difficult.

SHOGREN: Of course, the impact on climate isn't the only thing the Obama administration will consider. While the pipeline is being built, it will support 42,000 jobs, bringing $2 billion in wages. But Brune says it's not over yet.

BRUNE: We are going to fight. We will use all of the resources that the Sierra Club has to offer: our law department, our organizers, our lobbyists, the 2.1 million members and supporters across the country, the 170 groups who joined together at the climate rally in Washington, D.C. to make sure that this pipeline is rejected and that we go all-in on clean energy instead.

SHOGREN: University of California Davis energy expert Amy Myers Jaffe says the only way to keep that Canadian oil under the ground is to change the way we live.

AMY MYERS: Really, truly, it's a lifestyle issue. We use 18 to 19 million barrels a day of oil in this country.

SHOGREN: That's more than 20 percent of the oil consumed in the whole world.

MYERS: And we're only 5 percent of the population. And we need to look in the mirror.

SHOGREN: Jaffe says once we reduce our consumption, we can have the luxury of rejecting Canada's oil. Elizabeth Shogren, NPR News, Washington.

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