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There have been reports for years that Afghanistan is sitting on massive deposits of copper, gold, iron and rare earth minerals that could be worth up to $3 trillion. Now, this provides hope for a future economy that might be less dependent on foreign aid. But so far, foreign investors seem to be holding back, with Afghanistan's uncertain regulatory and security environment. So it could be a long time before Afghanistan hits pay dirt. NPR's Sean Carberry reports.
SEAN CARBERRY, BYLINE: The Afghan Geological Survey Office in Kabul is one of the few agencies in the country that measure up to international standards. Here, a U.S. government task force is helping train and advise Afghan geologists in processing samples from potential mining sites. Today, technicians are busy cataloging core samples from North Aynak in Logar Province. It's about 30 miles from Kabul. Afghan and U.S. geologists are evaluating the site's potential as a copper mine.
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CARBERRY: Long, thin cylinders of greenish rock from the site are lined up in cases. After they're cataloged and photographed, they go to the cutting room, says geologist Mohammed Idrees Ahmadi.
MOHAMMED IDREES AHMADI: We cut them, we can see the mineralizations, the structures and the textures of minerals or rocks.
CARBERRY: Then, men sitting on the floor break pieces of the core samples into smaller chunks, and send them to the crushing room.
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CARBERRY: The crushed samples are shipped to a more sophisticated lab in Kyrgyzstan for analysis. Ideally, the samples will show copper concentrations that warrant establishing a mine. But it's a long, slow process.
AHMADI: Even in the most stable countries in the world, usually it takes four to five years for these types of deposits to begin their production.
CARBERRY: Wahid Shahrani, the Afghan minister of mines, says it could take up to a decade for Afghanistan to see significant income from its mineral wealth. But investors and analysts think that's an overly optimistic assessment. In 2008, Afghanistan issued its first mining concession to the Metallurgical Corporation of China for a giant copper mine in Mes Aynak near the site currently being evaluated. But the metal in Mes Aynak is still sitting in the ground.
TAMIM ASEY: The officials within the ministry did not foresee a lot of obstacles which came on the way of development of the mine.
CARBERRY: Tamim Asey is an economist and former director in the Ministry of Mines. He says mining at Mes Aynak has been slowed by Soviet-era landmines, the discovery of ancient Buddhist relics and the landlocked country's poor infrastructure. Asey says these are just a few of the reasons investors are hesitant to sign mining deals in Afghanistan, but not the main one.
ASEY: When you go to any conference, the number one question is not security for investors; it's the political and legal stability of the country.
CARBERRY: And there's plenty of uncertainty in that regard. The Afghan parliament continues to debate a new minerals law that will meet international standards of transparency and accountability. Economist Asey says the government has negotiated a number of contracts with foreign mining companies but the companies haven't yet signed the contracts.
ASEY: They have not signed it because the mineral law has not been approved until now. If investors don't see the law is passed within another six months to a year, those contracts will fall apart.
CARBERRY: And, Asey cautions, Afghanistan doesn't yet have safeguards and policies to avoid the resource curse, in which the buried treasure promotes the wealth of warlords and corrupt officials, instead of promoting the wealth of the nation. Sean Carberry, NPR News, Kabul.
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